1) The more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant now appears to be circulating widely in Montreal, the latest data by the public health department suggest. The variant been responsible for at least 22 #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal since January, mainly in schools and daycare centres.
2) And since last week, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in schools has jumped by 19 to 117 in the city, with nearly 600 positive cases. In fact, the contagion in schools stands out because clusters have been dropping in nearly every other sector. See the chart below.
3) And three more Montreal schools — Antoine-de-Saint-Exupery, Adélard-Desrosier and Beth Jacob de Rev Hirschsprung — reported four more suspected cases on Wednesday involving the B.1.1.7 variant that originated in the U.K. in December, according to covidecolesquebec.org.
4) Dr. Mylène Drouin, of Montreal public health, implied schools are now B.1.1.7 breeding grounds: “When we look at the distribution of age groups, it’s very much young children and their parents, since the variant returns to the home and there is transmission within the home.”
5) Drouin also urged Montrealers to limit their social contacts, especially given that next week’s March break will “give rise to more time to socialize.” Recall that Montreal quickly became the epicenter of the #pandemic in Canada after last year’s March break.
6) This time around, public health authorities are testing a lot more for #COVID19 and have ramped up vaccinations. On Tuesday, nurses administered first shots to 1,478 Montrealers for a total of 95,164. And a big shipment of vaccines will come next week.
7) However, the B.1.1.7 variant — considered to be at least 50% more contagious than previous strains of #coronavirus — is spreading fast. Quebec on Wednesday posted a cumulative total of 602 presumptive variant cases, up by 118 from the day before.
8) Now we have a much better idea why public health officials have shut schools at the faintest sign of a #COVID19 variant. And it’s also why all pupils in elementary schools in the red zone of Montreal will have to wear masks in class after the March break.
9) The big question — or as Premier François Legault put in on Tuesday, the “big test” — that remains is what will happen with B.1.1.7 transmission in Montreal during the March break. Data on workplace outbreaks might provide an answer.
10) The chart below shows the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in the workplace declined by 13 to 119 since last week. But the number of clusters in large retail or department stores inched up by three to six. Will packed shopping centres next week accelerate the spread of B.1.1.7?
11) And it’s not just shopping centres that will be crowded next week, but public pools, hockey rinks and popcorn-less movie theatres. Under the circumstances, perhaps Quebec should have followed Ontario’s lead in postponing March break until mid-April. End of thread.
Addendum: The following charts could not fit into tonight’s thread, so I’m releasing them here. In an ominous sign, emergency room overcrowding in Montreal and across Quebec is rising, as the chart below indicates. Not a welcome development with B.1.1.7 on the loose.
Addendum 2: It appears the number of new daily #COVID19 cases in Montreal has plateaued in the low 400s in the past few days. Please take a look at the chart below.
Addendum 3: But mercifully, the decline in #COVID19 deaths in Montreal has become more pronounced in the past few days. The total number of #pandemic deaths in the province stands at 10,346, or which 4,489 have occurred in the metropolis.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

26 Feb
1) As Quebec plans to ease #pandemic restrictions Friday for the coming March break, it’s worth noting what some European countries that were hit with the B.1.1.7 variant much earlier than here are now doing, while the same strain spreads in Montreal.
2) In France, Prime Minister Jean Castex warned on Thursday of increased measures to fight the proliferation of B.1.1.7 in 20 regions, including Paris, following Wednesday’s count of 30,000 new #COVID19 infections.
3) The Czech Republic declared it will tighten its lockdown, including a ban on travel between counties for the next three weeks. Daycares and elementary schools will close on Monday. The government may send some Czech #COVID19 patients to Germany for treatment.
Read 15 tweets
23 Feb
1) One in ten positive #COVID tests is now screening for the more transmissible variants in Quebec — a situation that worries public health officials and Premier François Legault, who acknowledged that next week’s March break will be a “big test” in the #pandemic.
2) On Tuesday, the number of presumptive #COVID19 variant cases jumped by 69 to 484. Recall that less than two week ago, on Feb. 10, Quebec reported just 23 presumptive cases involving the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants.
3) Ontario, by comparison, has posted a cumulative total of 1,527 presumptive variant cases — that is positive test results with the N501Y gene mutation of the sticky spike protein on the #coronavirus. All three major variants, including P.1, share that mutation.
Read 13 tweets
23 Feb
1) On Feb. 10, Quebec’s top health officer disclosed two confirmed #COVID19 cases of the B.1.351 variant first identified in South Africa. On Monday, an Abitibi-Témiscamingue official revealed 40 presumptive B.1.351 cases. Why did authorities not release this information sooner?
2) Dr. Horacio Arruda said at the time the B.1.351 cases were associated with two “well-controlled” outbreaks. Arruda spoke more about the B.1.1.7 variant that originated in the U.K. in December and that is now circulating in Montreal. But he hardly mentioned B.1.351. Why not?
3) At a Monday afternoon news conference in Abitibi-Témiscamingue, public health doctor Omobola Sobanjo disclosed that 20 presumptive B.1.351 cases came from an outbreak following a party after the holidays, and 13 from a school cluster.
Read 14 tweets
22 Feb
1) At least four more schools in the greater Montreal region confirmed over the weekend #COVID19 cases likely arising from the B117 variant, raising the question as to the extent of the contagion of the new more transmissible strain in the community at large.
2) On Sunday night, covidecolesquebec.org reported the “circulation of a #COVID19 variant” at École de l’Équinoxe de Ste-Rose in Laval. This followed news earlier Sunday of the temporary closing of a Blainville school due to an outbreak linked to a variant.
3) The other schools include École Lévis-Sauvé in Verdun and Monseigneur Gilles-Gervais in Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville on the South Shore. That’s in addition to three other Montreal schools that have reported variant #COVID19 cases last week.
Read 10 tweets
21 Feb
1) As Quebec City public health officials launched massive screening on Saturday of the B117 variant among students, teachers, and families after a #COVID19 outbreak at a now-closed school, newly released data by neighboring Ontario show the variant spreading in the community.
2) In the chart below, Ontario Public Health has found that only 6.7% of cases involving the more contagious B117 variant arose from travel. In contrast, 80.6% of such cases were associated with outbreaks or close contact of a confirmed case.
3) This would suggest that a similar scenario is playing out in Quebec, with most variant cases having been detected in Montreal (19), but also in Abitibi-Témiscamingue (two), Laval (one) and the Eastern Townships (one). Please take a look at the chart below.
Read 10 tweets
20 Feb
1) The number of cases involving #COVID19 variants now appears to be rising faster in Quebec than in Ontario, the latest tallies by the two provinces suggest. In this thread, I will examine what this means as Quebec considers easing restrictions even after the March break.
2) Since Feb. 13, Ontario has reported an increase of 82 cases of the more contagious B117 variant and three more cases of the B1351 variant. Quebec is not reporting its numbers the same way, with only 16 confirmed cases of variants.
3) However, during the same period Quebec has confirmed an increase in five cases of variants and has reported 236 presumptive cases (up by 63 from the day before), with most likely occurring in the Montreal area and involving the B117 lineage.
Read 11 tweets

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