1) As Quebec plans to ease #pandemic restrictions Friday for the coming March break, it’s worth noting what some European countries that were hit with the B.1.1.7 variant much earlier than here are now doing, while the same strain spreads in Montreal.
2) In France, Prime Minister Jean Castex warned on Thursday of increased measures to fight the proliferation of B.1.1.7 in 20 regions, including Paris, following Wednesday’s count of 30,000 new #COVID19 infections.
3) The Czech Republic declared it will tighten its lockdown, including a ban on travel between counties for the next three weeks. Daycares and elementary schools will close on Monday. The government may send some Czech #COVID19 patients to Germany for treatment.
4) Portugal’s parliament has approved a request from the country’s president to renew its state of emergency by another two weeks. Portugal’s seven-day #COVID19 case rate per 100,000 inhabitants stands at 13, compared with a rate of 9 per 100,000 in Quebec.
5) Denmark has announced plans to allow shops and some schools to reopen in March after introducing a lockdown in December. Denmark’s prime minister has acknowledged the reopening plan is a “calculated risk” that could lead to more #COVID19 hospitalizations.
6) Meanwhile, Quebec on Thursday posted its biggest single-day increase to date in presumptive #COVID19 cases involving variants, most likely B.1.1.7. The number of such cases soared by 170 to 772. Confirmed variants jumped by 11 to 34. Please see the chart below.
7) In the absence of detailed data on variants from the government, it’s been left up to a volunteer website, covidecolesquebec.org, to provide such stats on the impact of B.1.1.7 on schools. As of 8 p.m. Thursday, four more schools reported suspected variant cases. See below.
8) The Quebec health ministry did not release updated data on #COVID19 outbreaks by sector Thursday, so it’s hard to know whether the B.1.1.7 contagion is accelerating or slowing down in schools However, the number of #COVID19 hospitalizations in Montreal dropped by 16 to 358.
9) Health Minister Christian Dubé appeared upbeat for the first time in weeks on Thursday following the registration of more than 100,000 #COVID19 vaccination appointments for Quebecers at least 85 years old. Quebec expects 700,000 doses from the federal government by March 31.
10) But at the same time, Dubé warned “we see the risks with March break and the risk with the variants.” So this is where things stand in Quebec, on the eve of the March break. If only we had the benefit of hindsight. End of thread. Please, please limit your social contacts.
Addendum: The following charts could not fit into tonight’s thread, so they’re being released here. Ontario, which is tracking the variants more closely than Quebec, is reporting an increased positivity rate in the past few days. See below.
Addendum 2: The return of emergency-room overcrowding in Quebec is now coinciding with the spread of the more contagious B.1.1.7 variant. An ER nurse spoke to me of even lower morale. Please take a look at the chart below.
Addendum 3: After declining cases for a few weeks, the centre health district of Côte-des-Neiges, downtown and Parc-Extension reported an uptick in #COVID19 infections in the past couple of days. Please review the chart below.
Addendum 4: The plateauing of #COVID19 cases appears to be continuing in Montreal. The city posted 384 on Thursday. See below.
Addendum 5: Stubbornly, however, the number of #COVID19 deaths in Montreal did not decline on Thursday, as one would have liked. The city’s #pandemic death toll stands at 4,495. For context only: the city proper of Paris reported a total of 3,187 such fatalities on the same day.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

25 Feb
1) The more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant now appears to be circulating widely in Montreal, the latest data by the public health department suggest. The variant been responsible for at least 22 #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal since January, mainly in schools and daycare centres.
2) And since last week, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in schools has jumped by 19 to 117 in the city, with nearly 600 positive cases. In fact, the contagion in schools stands out because clusters have been dropping in nearly every other sector. See the chart below.
3) And three more Montreal schools — Antoine-de-Saint-Exupery, Adélard-Desrosier and Beth Jacob de Rev Hirschsprung — reported four more suspected cases on Wednesday involving the B.1.1.7 variant that originated in the U.K. in December, according to covidecolesquebec.org.
Read 14 tweets
23 Feb
1) One in ten positive #COVID tests is now screening for the more transmissible variants in Quebec — a situation that worries public health officials and Premier François Legault, who acknowledged that next week’s March break will be a “big test” in the #pandemic.
2) On Tuesday, the number of presumptive #COVID19 variant cases jumped by 69 to 484. Recall that less than two week ago, on Feb. 10, Quebec reported just 23 presumptive cases involving the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants.
3) Ontario, by comparison, has posted a cumulative total of 1,527 presumptive variant cases — that is positive test results with the N501Y gene mutation of the sticky spike protein on the #coronavirus. All three major variants, including P.1, share that mutation.
Read 13 tweets
23 Feb
1) On Feb. 10, Quebec’s top health officer disclosed two confirmed #COVID19 cases of the B.1.351 variant first identified in South Africa. On Monday, an Abitibi-Témiscamingue official revealed 40 presumptive B.1.351 cases. Why did authorities not release this information sooner?
2) Dr. Horacio Arruda said at the time the B.1.351 cases were associated with two “well-controlled” outbreaks. Arruda spoke more about the B.1.1.7 variant that originated in the U.K. in December and that is now circulating in Montreal. But he hardly mentioned B.1.351. Why not?
3) At a Monday afternoon news conference in Abitibi-Témiscamingue, public health doctor Omobola Sobanjo disclosed that 20 presumptive B.1.351 cases came from an outbreak following a party after the holidays, and 13 from a school cluster.
Read 14 tweets
22 Feb
1) At least four more schools in the greater Montreal region confirmed over the weekend #COVID19 cases likely arising from the B117 variant, raising the question as to the extent of the contagion of the new more transmissible strain in the community at large.
2) On Sunday night, covidecolesquebec.org reported the “circulation of a #COVID19 variant” at École de l’Équinoxe de Ste-Rose in Laval. This followed news earlier Sunday of the temporary closing of a Blainville school due to an outbreak linked to a variant.
3) The other schools include École Lévis-Sauvé in Verdun and Monseigneur Gilles-Gervais in Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville on the South Shore. That’s in addition to three other Montreal schools that have reported variant #COVID19 cases last week.
Read 10 tweets
21 Feb
1) As Quebec City public health officials launched massive screening on Saturday of the B117 variant among students, teachers, and families after a #COVID19 outbreak at a now-closed school, newly released data by neighboring Ontario show the variant spreading in the community.
2) In the chart below, Ontario Public Health has found that only 6.7% of cases involving the more contagious B117 variant arose from travel. In contrast, 80.6% of such cases were associated with outbreaks or close contact of a confirmed case.
3) This would suggest that a similar scenario is playing out in Quebec, with most variant cases having been detected in Montreal (19), but also in Abitibi-Témiscamingue (two), Laval (one) and the Eastern Townships (one). Please take a look at the chart below.
Read 10 tweets
20 Feb
1) The number of cases involving #COVID19 variants now appears to be rising faster in Quebec than in Ontario, the latest tallies by the two provinces suggest. In this thread, I will examine what this means as Quebec considers easing restrictions even after the March break.
2) Since Feb. 13, Ontario has reported an increase of 82 cases of the more contagious B117 variant and three more cases of the B1351 variant. Quebec is not reporting its numbers the same way, with only 16 confirmed cases of variants.
3) However, during the same period Quebec has confirmed an increase in five cases of variants and has reported 236 presumptive cases (up by 63 from the day before), with most likely occurring in the Montreal area and involving the B117 lineage.
Read 11 tweets

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