Yes, it is time to increase my focus on my old sector, mining again, and apply the knowledge I still have after doing that sector for 10y before moving to shipping. Mining was up and down for me but from start to end I made 10x in my main portfolio.
What I will do is to focus on historically great managements. The more proven the better. Then I will choose "acceptable" juristictions and very large projects as the permitting risk is the same for large and small This slide from the other day ranks juristictions incl provinces
Shipping will still be like 80-90% for me but really, right now the sector is on autopilot towards the ECO & Carbon theme and all I have to do really is sit on $OET and #2020bulkers and let those play out 2021-2023 or perhaps even longer as carbon bites the non ECOs.
Everything in mining has "hair on it". But in a long bull market one can make so much money it is difficult to explain how it happened. For example from Dec 2008 to mid 2011 I was up 25x without leverage or options. (then came the tough years until shipping late 2015).
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Second Lundin play on copper is this company: MCAP 206 musd. filo-mining.com and on the border of San Juan province Argentina & Chile, only 12 km from the sister company. Dual listed in the same way.
The other day I listened to them talk about Copper at the Pareto conf (Lundin panel basically...) and how they have positioned themselves with their companies. Since I know their track record, that influenced me a lot
The surprise was to find how they have put together not one but three huge copper projects of the type that is likely to end up with the majors.
There are very few of these projects and my surprise was when I looked how mature they were vs the MCAPs
They actually looked cheap
This is not "we hope to find" or "we are sorry but we have not 43-101 but trust us". This is serial success people and done 100% by the book, resources and reserves in place, ready to go. As is their signum the projects are huge and in semi hairy juristictions.
I want to give @mintzmyer cred for what he has done lately. He has always been incredibly hardworking and VIE research very useful to me. Lately he has been better than good. I am long $ZIM with a lowest buy of 11.40 and the highest of 16.50. Did a lot of research on it early
but kept quiet about it. This was a @mintzmyer VIE original idea that I fortunately grasped and researched basically from the moment it crashed to its crazy low immediately post the IPO. Did I flip it yesterday on the VIE article going public? No, the only thing wrong with the
article is the "20-30 usd" imo (and probably J's too?) It was very likely a consequence strictly of the low price at the time of the crash. I would expect much higher targets as the multiple broker analysts come out with their targets. Saw Fearnleys talk about 40 usd (not rated)
Let's sort it out:
Scrubber vs ECO vs Size. The $OET & #2020Bulkers advantages and... are there risks to scrubbers from politicians? What would that mean? 1. ECO is about ships using less fuel due to propulsion and general features. That also means less CO2, carbon emissions.
2. Scrubbers is not so much about CO2, only removes like 2%. It is all about cleaning sulphur or the black smoke. The controversy is about putting that into the ocean. The argument for is -a silly low addition vs all the sulphur in the ocean & that sulphur is an airproblem only.
Looking at the current situation scrubbers are an economic failure for all that did retrofits but those that installed when the ships were built got it cheaper and with no offhire time. Being ECO is important, being larger ships is important, being modern is important=premium pay
$OET is not complicated They guide all we need to know. This includes a worst case scenario. Today the market is crap. In this crap market OET just took a 11m VL deal at 30k and a Smax deal at 20k So how do things look if it does not turn Q4 2021? What if bad times continue 2022?
This is projected earnings at the stated rates (spot for vessels not on charter) $OET amortizes faster than depreciation so remove 11 musd (guided) from these numbers and divide by 32.4 m shares and you basically have dividend 2022. 52-11=41 musd/32.4=11nok div or almost 20%yield
In a bad/delayed market, $OET simply stays with Koch and those charters increasing mid 2021 for as long as needed. As they amortize faster than depreciation LTV etc becomes less of an issue every quarter. IF it gets bad for longer.. this is when OET is even more superior to peers
$NMCI has 29 ships. By Jan 2021 my calculation is that 17 of those have reset on average 10k usd higher on 12m contracts.10k x350daysx17=60 musd in increased profits=current MCAP.
My highest possible conviction play coming 6 months at 1.79 usd per share. Feb-May another 6 ships
Rates for 4250TEU Panamaxes keep rising according to the latest info. Could the latest Harpex later today Friday break 20k? harpex.harperpetersen.com/harpexVP.do . To me $NMCI would really surprise if they did not put in at least another short term double. Charters probably re set early.
I think most investors are under the influence of having just watched the tanker spot market and they fail to take in that this is not spot. Container resets now are 12m deals. It is also very hard to see any "12m wind down of excessive storage" as we are going through in tankers