13/ Charlie Munger: "Harvard Business School early on started out with a history of business and they'd take you through the building of the canals and railroads and so on and you saw the ebb and flow of industry and the creative destruction of economic changes."
14/ Charlie Munger: "If you stop to think about it, business success long-term is a lot like biology and in biology what happens is the individuals all die and eventually so do all the species and capitalism is almost as brutal as that. Think of what's died in my lifetime."
15/ Charlie Munger: "Just think of the things that were once prosperous that are now in failure or gone. Whoever dreamed when I was young that Kodak would go bankrupt? It's incredible what's happened in terms of the destruction. Of course, that history is useful to know."
16/ "Jerry didn't know one thing about Daily Journal when we made him head of it, but he knew how to learn what he didn't know. It's hard to teach. Some people have a natural trend toward good judgment and other people their life is just a series of mistakes over and over again."
17/ "Psychology gets really useful when you integrate it with all other knowledge. But the academic system rewards little experiments that develop more insight into psychological tendencies instead of synthesizing what's already been discovered with the rest of knowledge." Munger
18/ On circle of competence: "If a new technology is created that you don't understand at all, you're at something of a disadvantage. My advice would be, if you have a fixable disadvantage, remove it. If it's unfixable, learn to live without it. What else can you do?" Munger
19/ "I'm not equipped to comment on a subject until I can state the arguments against my conclusion better than people on the other side. If you do that all the time, if you're looking for disconfirming evidence and putting yourself on a grill, that's a way remove ignorance."
20/ "What happens is every human being tends to believe way more than he should in what he's worked hard to find out or what he's announced publicly that he already believes. In other words, while we shout our knowledge out, we're really pounding it in, we're not enlarging it."
21/ "Warren and I are better at buying mature industries than we are at backing startups like Sequoia. I would hate to compete with Sequoia in their field. I think they'd run rings around me. For some folks, early stage investing is best. For other folks, what I've done is best."
22/ "BYD wasn't a startup, but it was so small that we were buying into a venture capital type investment, but in a public market. But with that one exception, I've stayed out of Sequoia's business because they're much better at it. I don't know how to do it the way they do it."
23/ Charlie Munger: "A lot of the old moats are going away, and of course, people are creating new moats all the time. That's the nature of capitalism. It's like evolution in biology. New species are created and old species are dying."
24/ Charlie Munger: "A lot of the moats that looked impassable, people found a way to just [get around]. Of course it's hard to negotiate in such a field. But there's no rule that life has to be easy on the mental side. Of course, it's going to be difficult."
25/ "People have a theory that any intelligent, hardworking person can get to be a great investor. Any intelligent person can get to be pretty good as an investor and avoid certain obvious traps. But I don't think everybody can be a great investor or a great chess player." CM
26/ Charlie Munger: "It's not easy to handle accumulated money in the current environment when stocks are so high and many parcels of real estate of certain kinds are also very inflated. So it's very difficult. All I can say is, 'We'll do the best we can.'"
27/ Charlie Munger: "But when it gets difficult, I don't think there's any automatic fix for difficulty. I think when difficulty comes, I expect to have my share."
28/ Charlie Munger: "The first rule of a happy life is low expectations. If you have unrealistic expectations, you're going to be miserable all your life. When you get reverses, it helps if you don't just fretfully stew yourself into a lot of misery."
29/ "Ben Franklin was one of the wisest men who ever lived, and yet he made a lot of mistakes in the course of living his life. Of course, if he had a chance to do it over again, he would avoid those mistakes. The number of people who ever got a chance to do it again is zero." CM
30/ Charlie Munger: "It's difficult to be a good investor. I'm satisfied with the way things have worked out and I'm not gnashing my teeth that other people are doing better. I think that the methods that I've used are the correct methods."[end of thread].
31/

My Neighbor's Dog: "30 tweets on the Munger Q&A is a lot."

Me: "Yep."

Neighbor's Dog: "He's still sharp. What did you think of his answers?"

Me: "I like his process. It works for me, even in my technology circle of competence. Other than that I have nothing to add."
31/ My Neighbor's Dog: "Why doesn't Warren make more bets like Berkshire's $570M bet on Snowflake."

Me: "Todd or Ted did that. Don't expect any style drift outside Buffett's circle of competence."

Neighbor's Dog: "Why?"

Me: "It is better to do nothing, than something stupid."

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More from @trengriffin

25 Feb
An issue for any creator selecting a platform or platforms like Substack or Twitter is: who owns the customer? Can the creator move to another platform or decide to roll their own platform?

You may recognize this as "wholesale transfer pricing" from blogs such as mine (25iQ). Image
Competition will create options for creators who want to own their customers. The scarce good isn't the platform but instead compelling offerings from creators. What will attract creators? Great tools for sure, but more importantly lower customer acquisition cost for creators.
How many creators exist? One estimate is 50 million, but as always, that's a guess and depends upon the definition used. The revenues of creators will follow a power law, because 1)people don't make decisions independently 2) talent and work ethic are not evenly distributed, etc.
Read 5 tweets
24 Feb
1/ No peanut brittle is in sight at the Daily Journal Meeting. One Diet Coke. Question period has started.

"The stock market frenzy is fed by people who are getting fees from a new generation of gamblers who have the mindset of race track gamblers."

finance.yahoo.com/videos
2/ "Don't invest in a parking lot by a courthouse. More and more of the business of the Daily Journal will move on line." Charlie Munger
3/ "Crazy speculation must end badly, but I don't know when."

"The investment banking profession will sell shit as long as shit can be sold."

"Behavior by market participants is most egregious when novice momentum traders are lured in."

Charlie Munger
Read 11 tweets
20 Feb
1/ Assume you don't have an information technology circle of competence. How much of a handicap do you have in beating a investing benchmark?

"The best performing Sector in the last 10 years is S&P Information Technology- a +19.28% annualized return." lazyportfolioetf.com/sp-500-sector-…
2/ Munger: "If you play games where other people have the aptitudes and you don’t, you’re going to lose. And that’s as close to certain as any prediction that you can make. You have to figure out where you’ve got an edge.  You've got to play within your own Circle of Competence.”
3/ The new stocks that Berkshire bought as revealed in the 13-F filing are definitely not stocks I would buy.

I use the Charlie Munger investing system, but I buy very different stocks because I do have a technology circle of competence. google.com/amp/s/finance.…
Read 7 tweets
19 Feb
1/ If Congress or anyone else wants to actually understand what happened with GameStonk they should read Richard Zeckhauser.

Zeckhauser is not Schrödinger's cat. He is instead a Harvard Professor who actually understands uncertainty and risk. 25iq.com/2018/09/08/ris…
2/ Charlie Munger once said "The right way to think is how Zeckhauser plays bridge. It's just that simple."

Why not call Zeckhauser as a witness?

If you haven't read Zeckhauser's paper "Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable" you are a damn fool. citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/downlo…
3/ Assuming a five sigma event won't happen again in financial markets is both pretending and idiotic. It will be a triumph of hope over experience (and is a likely result).

If someone wants to find a workable way forward, start at the Santa Fe Institute.santafe.edu/news-center/ne…
Read 5 tweets
18 Feb
Charlie Munger:

"He said, 'Well, it’s a two-sigma event.' And then he said we were a three-sigma event. And then he said we were a four-sigma event. And he finally got up to six sigmas, better to add a sigma than change a theory, just because the evidence comes in differently."
The Munger citation from the previous tweet is from: jamesclear.com/great-speeches…

Nigel: "You see, most blokes will be trading stonks and options assuming 10 sigma. Where can you go from there? Nowhere. What we do, is if we need that extra push over the cliff, 11 Sigma. One higher."
3/ “The thing that really destroys people are what the academics would call six-sigma, or five-sigma, or seven-sigma events, which are things that are never supposed to happen, basically." Warren Buffett
Read 7 tweets
14 Feb
1/ Being on the board of a business with Josh Wolfe fits perfectly with my goal of having experiences that result in great stories.

Watching a board member like Josh work is like watching a professional athlete. It's fun, interesting and educational. joincolossus.com/episodes/39195…
2/ This below is from the new podcast:

"Read voraciously, try to understand what the consensus is, find a variant perception, something that people aren't thinking about. And generally, for the wrong reason."

My blog post on Josh Wolfe is here: google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
"I'm insatiably curious and I want to meet everybody. I want to know a little bit about everything, but it's a humbling thing because you just never know. We listen in boardrooms about the hard problems these companies might be solving, that's where the next thing comes from."
Read 6 tweets

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