An issue for any creator selecting a platform or platforms like Substack or Twitter is: who owns the customer? Can the creator move to another platform or decide to roll their own platform?
You may recognize this as "wholesale transfer pricing" from blogs such as mine (25iQ).
Competition will create options for creators who want to own their customers. The scarce good isn't the platform but instead compelling offerings from creators. What will attract creators? Great tools for sure, but more importantly lower customer acquisition cost for creators.
How many creators exist? One estimate is 50 million, but as always, that's a guess and depends upon the definition used. The revenues of creators will follow a power law, because 1)people don't make decisions independently 2) talent and work ethic are not evenly distributed, etc.
Simba: "Dad are we going to offer Super Tweets to Super Followers? Nala says she won't date anyone who can't monetize their tweets."
Mufasa: "The Great Kings always own their customer relationships so until Twitter specifies the terms, we are going to explore all options."
Simba: "Twitter and the other platforms need to do something that we can’t do on our own. Otherwise creators like us will simply monetize elsewhere."
Mufasa: "Yes. If the platforms don't improve our unit economics we will roll our own solutions with MailChimp, Memberful, etc."
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13/ Charlie Munger: "Harvard Business School early on started out with a history of business and they'd take you through the building of the canals and railroads and so on and you saw the ebb and flow of industry and the creative destruction of economic changes."
14/ Charlie Munger: "If you stop to think about it, business success long-term is a lot like biology and in biology what happens is the individuals all die and eventually so do all the species and capitalism is almost as brutal as that. Think of what's died in my lifetime."
15/ Charlie Munger: "Just think of the things that were once prosperous that are now in failure or gone. Whoever dreamed when I was young that Kodak would go bankrupt? It's incredible what's happened in terms of the destruction. Of course, that history is useful to know."
1/ Assume you don't have an information technology circle of competence. How much of a handicap do you have in beating a investing benchmark?
"The best performing Sector in the last 10 years is S&P Information Technology- a +19.28% annualized return." lazyportfolioetf.com/sp-500-sector-…
2/ Munger: "If you play games where other people have the aptitudes and you don’t, you’re going to lose. And that’s as close to certain as any prediction that you can make. You have to figure out where you’ve got an edge. You've got to play within your own Circle of Competence.”
3/ The new stocks that Berkshire bought as revealed in the 13-F filing are definitely not stocks I would buy.
I use the Charlie Munger investing system, but I buy very different stocks because I do have a technology circle of competence. google.com/amp/s/finance.…
3/ Assuming a five sigma event won't happen again in financial markets is both pretending and idiotic. It will be a triumph of hope over experience (and is a likely result).
If someone wants to find a workable way forward, start at the Santa Fe Institute.santafe.edu/news-center/ne…
"He said, 'Well, it’s a two-sigma event.' And then he said we were a three-sigma event. And then he said we were a four-sigma event. And he finally got up to six sigmas, better to add a sigma than change a theory, just because the evidence comes in differently."
Nigel: "You see, most blokes will be trading stonks and options assuming 10 sigma. Where can you go from there? Nowhere. What we do, is if we need that extra push over the cliff, 11 Sigma. One higher."
3/ “The thing that really destroys people are what the academics would call six-sigma, or five-sigma, or seven-sigma events, which are things that are never supposed to happen, basically." Warren Buffett
1/ Being on the board of a business with Josh Wolfe fits perfectly with my goal of having experiences that result in great stories.
Watching a board member like Josh work is like watching a professional athlete. It's fun, interesting and educational. joincolossus.com/episodes/39195…
2/ This below is from the new podcast:
"Read voraciously, try to understand what the consensus is, find a variant perception, something that people aren't thinking about. And generally, for the wrong reason."
"I'm insatiably curious and I want to meet everybody. I want to know a little bit about everything, but it's a humbling thing because you just never know. We listen in boardrooms about the hard problems these companies might be solving, that's where the next thing comes from."