๐Ÿฆ ๐Ÿฆ 9,985 new cases

โšฐ๏ธโšฐ๏ธ323 (28 day cut off deaths)

โšฐ๏ธ๐Ÿ’”โšฐ๏ธ๐Ÿ’” 142,908 deaths total, by date of death.
i.e.

138,468 ONS/Stats authority Covid (death cert) to 12/2/21.

+

4440 deaths by date of death (28 day cut off) 13/2/21 - 24/2/21

= โšฐ๏ธ๐Ÿ’” 142,908. Exceeding SAGEโ€™s RWC
Dashboard notes confirm the death reporting blip yesterday, corrected today

New cases by report date disguise a rather higher number by swab date, due to weekend lows on swabbing, showing that when more swabs done cases go up

14.3k on Monday 15th Feb
๐Ÿฅ ADMISSIONS 1142 (21/2/21) so still generally trending down

๐Ÿ›Œ IN Patients 16,059, whilst generally trending down is still very high indeed.

VENTILATOR ๐Ÿ›Œ 2118 is still hundreds above the height of the November peak.
๐Ÿ’‰ 448,962 vaccination doses yesterday, picking up after a very slow start to the week.

๐Ÿ’‰๐Ÿ’‰19,392,553 doses in total given to 18,691,832 people

๐Ÿ’‰๐Ÿ’‰๐Ÿ’‰ Of those 700,718 people have received two doses.
โšฐ๏ธ๐Ÿ’” 142,908 Covid deaths means that

1 in every 469 U.K. citizens has died of Covid (assuming the population stands at 67 mill per ONS/stats authority census data).

0.21% of our entire population.
So the Great Barrington shower that suggests the INFECTION fatality rate is c 0.2% are talking through their rear ends.

That would mean that more than 100% of the U.K. population had contracted Covid,

Our CASE Fatality rate is 3.44% (based on 4,154,562 people testing positive
The overall vaccination picture is still healthy but definitely down in the last week.

Interesting to see second dose if is beginning to step up.

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More from @fascinatorfun

25 Feb
ISRAEL: When you consider how much of their population is vaccinated
- 1st dose: 49.9% (+0.3)
- 2nd dose: 35.1% (+0.6)
Their case numbers are still VERY high (4,168 is equivalent to c 28k cases here)
The numbers in hospital and ICU are still high (equivalent to over 2k in ICU and c8k in hospital in the U.K.) but, as a proportion of cases, it is far lower than we are experiencing here

27 deaths in Israel is equivalent to c180 in the UK

So maybe fewer severe cases and deaths
Here is a story I posted yesterday about the decline in cases coming to a halt and the profile of hospital cases changing

haaretz.com/israel-news/drโ€ฆ
Read 7 tweets
25 Feb
Look at antibody levels after 1 dose of Pfizer especially in the older age groups-& not just the oldest.

Then look at the table in the previous tweet at two doses.

@andrew_croxford @dgurdasani1 @chrischirp

Iโ€™d like to see deaths & hospitalisations broken down 1 dose/2 dose
@d_spiegel points out the death data is encouraging.

Is there a division between 1 shot and 2 shot Pfizer patients?

Ditto hospitalisations?

The AZ data should be clearer next month given they only started vaccinating on 4 Jan

It also looks to me from the PHE report (15-22 Feb) as if the decline in hospitalisations is larger and faster in the 75-85+ age groups too.

Is there more granular data? Image
Read 9 tweets
25 Feb
We havenโ€™t even fully reopened schools yet
We got a bit of a half term dip but not nearly as big as the Xmas dip

Nursery schools have most cases, but they also tend to have most children at present.

The anecdotal feedback from friends with nursery/primary age kids is they donโ€™t get tested even when a cough/upset tummy
There does seem to be a disproportionately larger, faster drop in cases in the 85 + and also in the 75-84 year olds.

The next two weeks should reveal whether that shifts clearly into the 65-74 age group.
Read 10 tweets
24 Feb
๐Ÿฆ ๐Ÿฆ 9,938 new cases

โšฐ๏ธโšฐ๏ธโšฐ๏ธ 442 (28 day cut off) deaths

โšฐ๏ธ๐Ÿ’”โšฐ๏ธ๐Ÿ’” 141,789 COVID deaths (by date of death) = TOTAL

(138,468 ONS/ Stats Authority Covid certified deaths to 12/2/21

+

3321 (28 day cut off by date of death) 13/3/21 - 22/2/21)

= 141,789 Covid deaths โšฐ๏ธ๐Ÿ’”
๐Ÿฅ ADMISSIONS continue downwards. 1327

๐Ÿ›Œ IN PATIENTS 16,803

VENTILATOR ๐Ÿ›Œ 2273

Clearly a large reduction from the unbelievably grim peak, but still a long way to go before capacity to return to catching up with the backlog

Ventilator beds still well over capacity
๐Ÿ’‰ 326,692 vaccine doses delivered yesterday after two low days.

๐Ÿ’‰๐Ÿ’‰ 18,911,978 doses administered, total to 18,242,873 people

๐Ÿ’‰๐Ÿ’‰๐Ÿ’‰ Of those 669,105 have received two doses.

Vaccine supply has been bumpy this week, although more is expected next week.
Read 4 tweets
23 Feb
We will keep fighting - Good Law Project. Ayanda etc Gov spending ยฃ1 mill on costs

But the court has capped costs at ยฃ250k so I am afraid that if we donโ€™t want the bullies to win by outspending we all have to cough up a bit more.

Getting my wallet out. goodlawproject.org/update/we-willโ€ฆ
We arenโ€™t far off now.

Just another ยฃ18k to go (but would be very good to build in a load of extra ยฃ100k to pay for the GLPโ€™s costs too.

Link for donations
Surely thereโ€™s 20k people willing to dub up ยฃ10?

Just to stop the bullies getting away with it

crowdjustice.com/case/108millioโ€ฆ
So @GoodLawProject need to have enough to bear their own modest costs & also ensure they have ยฃquarter of a million if things go against them.

I really donโ€™t think they will.

In that, case, at best, they will have a cushion to fight another battle.
Read 4 tweets
23 Feb
๐Ÿฆ ๐Ÿฆ 8,489 new cases but nearly a half a million Lateral Flow tests were carried out yesterday. Higher false negative rate. They seem to be replacing PCR testing increasingly.

โšฐ๏ธโšฐ๏ธโšฐ๏ธ 548 (28 day cut off) deaths

โšฐ๏ธ๐Ÿ’”โšฐ๏ธ๐Ÿ’” 141,769 deaths total BY DATE OF DEATH
Death total as follows from todayโ€™s Gov COVID dashboard.

138,468 ONS/ stats authority deaths (Covid on death certificate) to 12/2/21
+
3321 deaths by date of death (28 day cut off)

= 141,789โšฐ๏ธ

We have now exceeded SAGEโ€™s RWC scenario from July 2020 (85k deaths 1/7/20-31/3/21)
On 1/7/20 There were 56,061 COVID deaths (ONS/stats authority by date of death).

141,789 Covid deaths total to yesterday.

85,782 deaths since 1/7/20 despite 2 lockdowns, endless tiers and 11 weeks of vaccinations.

And we reached it over a month early.
Read 8 tweets

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