Thread by @fascinatorfun

ISRAEL: When you consider how much of their population is vaccinated
- 1st dose: 49.9% (+0.3)
- 2nd dose: 35.1% (+0.6)
Their case numbers are still VERY high (4,168 is equivalent to c 28k cases here)

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1365071425900597251

The numbers in hospital and ICU are still high (equivalent to over 2k in ICU and c8k in hospital in the U.K.) but, as a proportion of cases, it is far lower than we are experiencing here

27 deaths in Israel is equivalent to c180 in the UK

So maybe fewer severe cases and deaths

Here is a story I posted yesterday about the decline in cases coming to a halt and the profile of hospital cases changing

haaretz.com/israel-news/dr…

The composition of those infected and critically ill has changed in recent weeks. Children and adolescents aged 0 to 19 constitute more than 43% of all new patients, and those aged 20 to 39 constitute 35% of them.

And they are vaccinating 16 year olds upwards very fast.

I hope we learn from Israel and remain on guard and cautious for quite some time.

Jabbing our way out of the pandemic won’t work well if we do not show high levels of discipline and restraint during the process

I guess one of the things in my mind is the topic @AdamJKucharski and now Julia Gogg have been talking about which is the dangerous spot in a vaccine programme.

Model explained here.
Vaccinate the most vulnerable and none of the mixers. c. 17.50 on

sms.cam.ac.uk/media/3436478

There’s more evidence to support the extended interval for the AstraZeneca vaccine than the Pfizer.

@john_actuary and @john_actuary have shown these tables of one dose (left) v 2 dose (right) esp the 70s up

What extra pressure is then put in the virus?

I don’t know the answer.

@Laurie_Garrett
“There're big #COVID19 lessons, far beyond Israeli borders. Any dreams of "herd immunity" must tackle isolation, religious objections, animosities betwn populations, ethnic issues & #vaccine hesitancy or the dreams will become nightmares”

https://twitter.com/laurie_garrett/status/1365737952219906048?s=21