Thread by @fascinatorfun

We haven’t even fully reopened schools yet

https://twitter.com/ADMBriggs/status/1364992417074728966

We got a bit of a half term dip but not nearly as big as the Xmas dip

Nursery schools have most cases, but they also tend to have most children at present.

The anecdotal feedback from friends with nursery/primary age kids is they don’t get tested even when a cough/upset tummy

There does seem to be a disproportionately larger, faster drop in cases in the 85 + and also in the 75-84 year olds.

The next two weeks should reveal whether that shifts clearly into the 65-74 age group.

Thanks, as ever, to @ADMBriggs for his very helpful weekly analysis.

Re schools, it is worth reading this paper by @DrZoeHyde

“In Sweden, where schools largely remained open, no significant difference was observed in seroprevalence to mid‐June between people aged 0–19 and 20–64 years (6.8% v 6.4%).

Seroprevalence was lower in people aged ≥ 65 years (1.5%), whom the country attempted to shield.

So children, when schools are open, did not appear to be noticeably less infectious than adults.

Shielded adults lowered infectivity in that age group.

The questions remain about the extent of #LongCovid in kids, but ONS studies suggest it is present in maybe 10% of kids despite mild or asymptomatic Covid.

Then there is the rôle they play in transmission.

If it is less, how much less?

It seems that B117 variant is infectious for longer than the original variants. IF (& it is a big IF given what we have seen in our own infection waves when schools are fully open v partly open) they transmit less than adults, does the B117 variant wipe out that advantage?

Here is a link to @DrZoeHyde ‘s paper which is worth reading in full, given the onward referencing to other studies.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.56…

When you look at the PHE graphs early in this thread remember that whilst schools were open from September to December, the opening included some continuing online lessons and repeated and large closing of classes and bubbles.

So not fully open even then.