Thread by @fascinatorfun

Look at antibody levels after 1 dose of Pfizer especially in the older age groups-& not just the oldest.

Then look at the table in the previous tweet at two doses.

@andrew_croxford @dgurdasani1 @chrischirp

I’d like to see deaths & hospitalisations broken down 1 dose/2 dose

https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1364914201148477440

@d_spiegel points out the death data is encouraging.

Is there a division between 1 shot and 2 shot Pfizer patients?

Ditto hospitalisations?

The AZ data should be clearer next month given they only started vaccinating on 4 Jan

https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1364976264591904769?s=21

It also looks to me from the PHE report (15-22 Feb) as if the decline in hospitalisations is larger and faster in the 75-85+ age groups too.

Is there more granular data?

I asked @d_spiegel whether the death data was feom deaths by date of death or by report, and whether 28 day cut off or 60 day cut off.

He says deaths by date of death (28 day cut off) so we have to bear in mind there is something of a lag in death reporting.

Deaths for Recent days and week may well increase.

Also we should bear in mind that 60 day deaths are proving to be markedly higher than 28 day deaths.

ICU data suggest 28 day outcomes are markedly improved, 60 day deaths less so.

ALSO Care home and home deaths notifications more laggy.

Data in another month are likely to give a more solid picture for those reasons...and bigger data on AZ v Pfizer, short interval v long interval.

#Horizon @BBC2 tonight is really REALLY interesting

After the first jab a wide range of antibodies are produced but they are not all equal. Some are more strongly neutralising than others.

One of the arguments in favour of a longer interval is that, as time goes by after the first jab, the better quality antibodies are the ones that prevail and the second jab then gives the better “quality” Abs a stronger boost.

I’d like to understand more about that.

In addition, even if antibodies are lower, if better quality they maybe sufficient to give a great kick start to T and B cell activity.