Why would Pakistan agree to ceasefire now ? Firing on LoC and pushing of terrorists into Indian territory is business as usual for them. What changed ?
1. Biden administration would like to have a strong military base in Pakistan now, to counter Iran and manage China’ growth in
1. Biden administration would like to have a strong military base in Pakistan now, to counter Iran and manage China’ growth in
in the region. Actually boots on ground and planes in sky will help this a lot. Also, since India’s air strikes proved that we can go inside Pak, US wouldn’t want to have a base where things can go volatile any moment.
2. Also a sign of change of government. Biden is very pro
2. Also a sign of change of government. Biden is very pro
Pak but has major leaning towards Zardari. By ensuring peace on LoC with India, Bajwa and Imran’s possibility of anything dramatically surprising to both India and US is reduced a lot. They wont break peace now for the fear of losing support from US. And that takes away from them
the possibility of heroics to win popular votes, riding on anti India emotions. Forced to play a game now!
3. Pakistan’s economy is on brink of bankruptcy. Wouldn’t be surprised if some donor nation would’ve agreed only after back channel agreement of payment post ceasefire with
3. Pakistan’s economy is on brink of bankruptcy. Wouldn’t be surprised if some donor nation would’ve agreed only after back channel agreement of payment post ceasefire with
India. One can believe that Indian diplomacy can achieve that. Plus it’s a huge cost for Pak to maintain this war against India. But this will surely see a spike in anti India propaganda in media and SM. Keep some front active and compensate for other fronts too.
4. Pak Army is
4. Pak Army is
having a rough time in Balochistan and Afghanistan borders. Maybe they need a quieter border on one side to focus on the deployments for immediate threats.
5. Pakistan is trying to revive its image by doing this. Expect a invitation to open bilateral dialogues soon with India.
5. Pakistan is trying to revive its image by doing this. Expect a invitation to open bilateral dialogues soon with India.
This will be done only to prove their peace loving status to woo investors, #FATF, donors etc.
6. Worst case scenario for India - Pakistan is taking a halt as directed by Chinese to take a step back and plan and reorg. China too did this. The ceasefire may be a big facade to
6. Worst case scenario for India - Pakistan is taking a halt as directed by Chinese to take a step back and plan and reorg. China too did this. The ceasefire may be a big facade to
get India comfortable and casual on both fronts, and surprise us in a coordinated attack. Far fetched, but who knows !
It could be one or combination of many factors, or even none of these. Only thing I’m sure of is that they surely don’t have India’s welfare in mind, and this
It could be one or combination of many factors, or even none of these. Only thing I’m sure of is that they surely don’t have India’s welfare in mind, and this
could be a ruse altogether from their end. Not even for one second, India should trust them. Rather stay more alert now. Pak is a habitual and regular ceasefire violator and that should never be forgotten.
Just in - US attacked Iran backed militia’s base in Syria. Guess US definitely IS planning to tackle Iran now. That base theory in first tweet of thread might just be a reality soon. Time will tell !
Some more deliberation on this led to another angle. While the step may have been taken on China’s directions, it still has a larger sinister plan in background. Couple of days back we reviewed the Rutog base in China, the new forward garrison that has immense capabilities
in terms of speedy and sizeable deployment in Ladakh region. This happened post India-China agreement to disengage and de-escalate the region. But since China just stepped a few steps back to consolidate its position at these bases, same could be said for Pakistan. Chinese might
want to help build new massive bases on PoK’s side, having easy access and permissions anyway, and this ceasefire is a enabler of sorts to ensure uninterrupted and non violent military construction and development of the area. Just a thought !
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