With today's numbers, we are one stone throw away from the positive territory (current 7-day average % change is -.18%), confirming that R is likely over 1.0 again.
The question is, will every state be similarly impacted? If not which states will see the rise? (1/x)
The question is, will every state be similarly impacted? If not which states will see the rise? (1/x)
https://twitter.com/covidtweets/status/1364798808782213121
I still do not have a confident prediction about whether we will see the rise first in the South or in the North, or both at the same time.
A quick look says it is turning almost everywhere with the South slightly ahead. (2/x)
A quick look says it is turning almost everywhere with the South slightly ahead. (2/x)
However, it is possible that with South warming up quickly, the actual wave will mostly be in the North, following a pattern similar to last year.
Then a Sun Belt wave in May/June, but hopefully with a significant portion of the population vaccinated. (3/x)
Then a Sun Belt wave in May/June, but hopefully with a significant portion of the population vaccinated. (3/x)
Seasonality is not *just* weather. But several factors interact, one being weather. We are passing through the weather conditions favored by the virus.
Hopefully, with the most vulnerable vaccinated, the numbers that actually matter will stay lower. (4/4)
Hopefully, with the most vulnerable vaccinated, the numbers that actually matter will stay lower. (4/4)
https://twitter.com/covidtweets/status/1357912854989590529?s=20
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