CDC just published a new study, in which students and staff in eight elementary schools (N = 3,300) were followed from Dec.1 to Jan.22 (holidays), cases were identified, all close contacts were tested, etc.
Full-time in-person, students sitting <3ft from each other. (1/x)
During this time, Cobb county reached a 7-day/avg of 577. According to guidelines by the same CDC, this is ~ 40X the number for red tier, so everyone in that county should have died by now.
They found a staggering total of 45 cases possibly transmitted within schools... (2/x)
Moreover, most transmission were bw. teachers or from teachers to students. There were only a few possible student to student/teacher cases.
Anyone claiming to follow the science should now safely ignore the CDC guidelines, as they seem to be anti-science. (3/x)
With today's numbers, we are one stone throw away from the positive territory (current 7-day average % change is -.18%), confirming that R is likely over 1.0 again.
The question is, will every state be similarly impacted? If not which states will see the rise? (1/x)
Even though January 8th is the peak for the US as a whole, there have actually been three peaks across the states: Nov. 20th, Dec 15th, and January 12th. (-+ a week to all).
Every state peaked in one of these dates, and many actually peaked in more than one of these. (1/x)
The reason why January peak is the US peak is because all the other states peaking earlier were either declining or had a second peak in January.
Based on highest 7-day average in each state, yellow is the November peak, blue is January peak, and green is December peak. (2/x)
However, many states actually had multiple peaks. Even when this happened, their peaks happened on one of the three dates. See the examples below.
I am not aware of any significant behavioral factor that would explain these dates across such a large area. (3/x)
Watch the pathetic responses (actually lack thereof) by @CDCDirector to the very good questions by @jaketapper
It is clear that she does not believe in what she is saying. If that is the case, please resign @CDCDirector . Don't facilitate the kids being held hostage... (1/x)
1. It is from the community, 2. It does not get transmitted to others in schools,
So those cases will happen anyway and will not spread further in a school.
Why on earth are the school closed then?!!! (2/x)
There has been a lot of stupidity in the past year. Most were because of fear. This is different.
This is happening only because of political pressure by unions, and the damage is way deeper than any other stupid policy we have endured over the past year... (3/x)
Cases are dropping faster than they ever have since the beginning of the pandemic, currently at a rate of around 3.5% per day.
In addition, the current drop is the longest consistent decline since the beginning.
But, the variant... (1/5)
It has been almost two months since Slavitt said we actually had the variant spreading but we were not testing for it. Almost four weeks since Topol said 4th surge was coming.
If this new variant is actually this big of a deal, I think we would have seen it by now. (2/5)
This chart shows the smoothened curve of % change in moving average (MA). Anytime it is 0+, it means MA of cases is increasing, and below zero means decreasing. The bigger the value, the faster the change.
MA is dropping since early January at an accelerating pace. (3/5)