Share this page!

Prof Profile picture
Twitter logo
25 Feb, 5 tweets, 2 min read
The sharp decline in the US has stalled and then reversed in the past few days. If this trend continues, cases will soon begin increasing.

Chart in the second tweet shows that moving average of % change is getting close to the positive territory. (1/x)
It is still a little early to call a Spring wave in the US, but signs are starting to show.

If it happens, it should not last long (likely peaking early April), and I don't expect the case peaks to be as high as the Winter numbers. (2/x)
And this follows a trend reversal in several European countries in the past couple of weeks.

It started in Eastern Europe, but now it appears Italy and France (at least) are joining the party. (3/x)

When (or if) we see a clear upward trend, usual alarmists will begin screaming "The Variant". Get ready. (4/4)

#OpenSchoolsNow
#endthechildabuse

Another point to add: It is possible the CLI is no longer a good metric to use as an early signal. The number of people needing to go to ER for COVID should have declined significantly compared to a year ago.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Prof

Prof Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @covidtweets

Prof Profile picture
26 Feb
With today's numbers, we are one stone throw away from the positive territory (current 7-day average % change is -.18%), confirming that R is likely over 1.0 again.

The question is, will every state be similarly impacted? If not which states will see the rise? (1/x) Image
I still do not have a confident prediction about whether we will see the rise first in the South or in the North, or both at the same time.

A quick look says it is turning almost everywhere with the South slightly ahead. (2/x)
However, it is possible that with South warming up quickly, the actual wave will mostly be in the North, following a pattern similar to last year.

Then a Sun Belt wave in May/June, but hopefully with a significant portion of the population vaccinated. (3/x)
Read 4 tweets
Prof Profile picture
24 Feb
CDC just published a new study, in which students and staff in eight elementary schools (N = 3,300) were followed from Dec.1 to Jan.22 (holidays), cases were identified, all close contacts were tested, etc.

Full-time in-person, students sitting <3ft from each other. (1/x)
During this time, Cobb county reached a 7-day/avg of 577. According to guidelines by the same CDC, this is ~ 40X the number for red tier, so everyone in that county should have died by now.

They found a staggering total of 45 cases possibly transmitted within schools... (2/x)
Moreover, most transmission were bw. teachers or from teachers to students. There were only a few possible student to student/teacher cases.

Anyone claiming to follow the science should now safely ignore the CDC guidelines, as they seem to be anti-science. (3/x)

#openschoolsnow
Read 4 tweets
Prof Profile picture
22 Feb
Even though January 8th is the peak for the US as a whole, there have actually been three peaks across the states: Nov. 20th, Dec 15th, and January 12th. (-+ a week to all).

Every state peaked in one of these dates, and many actually peaked in more than one of these. (1/x)
The reason why January peak is the US peak is because all the other states peaking earlier were either declining or had a second peak in January.

Based on highest 7-day average in each state, yellow is the November peak, blue is January peak, and green is December peak. (2/x)
However, many states actually had multiple peaks. Even when this happened, their peaks happened on one of the three dates. See the examples below.

I am not aware of any significant behavioral factor that would explain these dates across such a large area. (3/x)
Read 9 tweets
Prof Profile picture
21 Feb
I am still waiting to see one convincing explanation for the current decline in cases that does not involve seasonality.

Most epis say people began taking more precautions. When I ask for any evidence or how everyone suddenly started behaving at the same time?

Crickets... (1/4)
A decent number mention immunity build-up with many people now infected or vaccinated, which is definitely a factor, but still not enough by itself.

That would mean prior infection rates are the same everywhere. Are you ready to admit that to be the case between GA and CA? (2/4)
Seriously, I am desperately looking for one even remotely plausible explanation. If it is not seasonality, then what?

Epis have great faith in that we are in control. But this is really nothing more than "faith" at this time, since the evidence is non-existent. (3/4)
Read 5 tweets
Prof Profile picture
14 Feb
Watch the pathetic responses (actually lack thereof) by @CDCDirector to the very good questions by @jaketapper

It is clear that she does not believe in what she is saying. If that is the case, please resign @CDCDirector . Don't facilitate the kids being held hostage... (1/x)
She says when there are cases in school:

1. It is from the community,
2. It does not get transmitted to others in schools,

So those cases will happen anyway and will not spread further in a school.

Why on earth are the school closed then?!!! (2/x)
There has been a lot of stupidity in the past year. Most were because of fear. This is different.

This is happening only because of political pressure by unions, and the damage is way deeper than any other stupid policy we have endured over the past year... (3/x)
Read 7 tweets
Prof Profile picture
14 Feb
Cases are dropping faster than they ever have since the beginning of the pandemic, currently at a rate of around 3.5% per day.

In addition, the current drop is the longest consistent decline since the beginning.

But, the variant... (1/5)
It has been almost two months since Slavitt said we actually had the variant spreading but we were not testing for it. Almost four weeks since Topol said 4th surge was coming.

If this new variant is actually this big of a deal, I think we would have seen it by now. (2/5)
This chart shows the smoothened curve of % change in moving average (MA). Anytime it is 0+, it means MA of cases is increasing, and below zero means decreasing. The bigger the value, the faster the change.

MA is dropping since early January at an accelerating pace. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @covidtweets has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @covidtweets!

Read all threads by @covidtweets