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Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
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26 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
What is the point of this?
Seems the point is to sabotage the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact by preventing a popular vote calculation. Buuut unless the popular vote is super close, you'll still know who won it even without exact North Dakota results.
1. North Dakota is very small—only 565K eligible voters. Biden won the popular vote by 7 million.

2. If we know ND's percentages, you can apply those to even a rough turnout estimate and get a decent guess at the popular vote. Again, unless it's super close, you'll know.
More importantly, of course, this bill is an obstacle to transparency and the accessibility of election data/knowledge.

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More from @baseballot

Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
21 Jan
This deserves a thoughtful response. First, I don't think it's true that all reporters thought Georgia was Lean R. Many of us wrote of it as a pure tossup... fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-c…
That said, if you had asked me two years in advance who'd have won a GA runoff, yes, I'd have said Republicans. There was SOME evidence for this (i.e., GOP overperformance in runoffs). But obviously, 1/5 showed that could be overcome.
So can the evidence for a good GOP year in 2022 be overcome too? Sure. But also, there is a MUCH bigger sample size of evidence saying midterms are bad for the prez party than there were for GA runoffs being pro-GOP.
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
8 Jan
Up to six state legislators I'm aware of who were in Wednesday's mob:
-MI state Rep. Matt Maddock
-MO state Rep. Justin Hill
-PA state Sen. Doug Mastriano
-TN state Rep. Terri Lynn Weaver
-VA state Sen. Amanda Chase
-WV state Del. Derrick Evans
I have to wonder if any of them will be removed from office. Chase is the only one in a D-controlled chamber, but the 14th Amendment may provide a legal path to disqualify them. law.cornell.edu/constitution/a…
Looks like I missed some (many of these people say they left when things got violent, though):
-AK state Rep. David Eastman
-AZ state Rep. Mark Finchem
-Incoming NV state Assemb. Annie Black
Read 7 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
26 Nov 20
I realize all the updates have probably been confusing, so let me try to summarize the #IA02 situation.

21 out of the district's 24 counties (all but Clinton, Jasper, & Scott) have recounted and certified results. Miller-Meeks (R) leads by 35 votes in those counties.
Jasper County just finished its recount and Hart (D) netted 1 vote (which would narrow the margin to 34 votes overall). These new results haven't been certified but there's no reason to think they won't be.
Scott County also finished its recount today and Hart netted 26 votes (which would narrow the margin to 8 votes). These new results haven't been certified AND might not be, because there was a 131-ballot discrepancy between the recount total and original total.
Read 5 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
14 Aug 20
FiveThirtyEight is out with a big project this week—no, not that one. Introducing our state-by-state guide to voting in the pandemic: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-20…
First, we have a big map of mail-voting rules in each state. On the liberal end, 9 places are mailing ballots to every voter. On the conservative end, 8 states are still requiring voters to provide an excuse. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-20… Image
But here's the really exciting part: Click on your state and you'll get a big guide to how to vote: deadlines for registering, requesting and submitting a mail ballot, access to in-person and early voting... projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-20… Image
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
30 Jul 20
If you'll permit me a pedantic "well, actually" thread... #Actually, absentee voting and mail voting ARE different.
1. The way Trump seems to be distinguishing them, "mail voting" = a state mails everyone a ballot automatically. "Absentee voting" = voters have to proactively request a ballot. You may prefer the former or the latter setup, but there IS a difference.
2. Absentee voting can be done in person; many states simply have "in-person absentee voting" in lieu of early voting. When you see stats like "X% of votes were absentees" that doesn't mean X% were mailed in.
Read 5 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
23 Oct 18
Sigh. I guess everyone is going to overreact to early-voting numbers again. Here are all the ways that can go wrong:
1. We don't actually know how early voters voted; we just know what party they're registered with, and there's no guarantee that they voted for that party's candidate, especially in states where voter reg is weird like Ohio.
2. We don't know how independent early voters are voting. A 40–30% Democratic EV lead is meaningless if all the independents vote for Republicans.
Read 6 tweets

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