Our daily update is published. States reported 1.8M tests, 74k cases, 51,116 currently hospitalized, and 2,137 COVID-19 deaths.
Many data-watchers are understandably concerned about the recent uptick in national reported cases. A closer look at the national figures shows simultaneous wobbles in tests, cases, and deaths—a clue that this is likely a reporting issue, not a turnaround.
Current hospitalizations—always our most stable metric during reporting disruptions—are also continuing to drop.
As we noted in yesterday’s weekly update, we think the likeliest cause of some or all of this data wiggle is the combination of President’s Day reporting disruptions and the massive winter storms in mid-February. covidtracking.com/analysis-updat…
A close look at the topline metrics in Texas shows evidence of major disruption in COVID-19 data reporting across our second-most populous state. When Texas has big problems, they really move the national numbers.
Our count of COVID-19 deaths has now surpassed 500k. We reached this milestone a few days after some other trackers because—unlike many trackers—we compile deaths only from New York State and not directly from NYC.
(NYS and NYC both report deaths to the CDC. There are about 8.7k deaths that NYC reports which are not counted by NYS, and because we use the state’s reported numbers, our dataset does not reflect those additional deaths.)
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Our weekly update is published. COVID-19 cases have been declining for 6 weeks, hospitalizations for 5 weeks, and deaths for 4 weeks. States reported fewer than 15K deaths this week, for the first time in 2021.
Data this week was disrupted by 2 confounding factors: a holiday and a major winter storm which resulted in an artificial drop and rise in daily COVID-19 figures. Our post about day-of-the-week effects can help contextualize these wobbles.
As we wind down data compilation, we want to help everyone understand how to find and use federal COVID-19 numbers. Today, we’re going over @CDCgov death data.
The federal government publishes two different datasets: the CDC's COVID Data Tracker, and the NCHS's provisional COVID-19 death counts. The key to understanding them is knowing the source of each.
As we wind down data compilation, we want to help everyone understand how to find and use federal COVID-19 numbers. Today, we’re going over CDC case data. covidtracking.com/analysis-updat…
The @CDCgov publishes aggregate and line-level case data. Aggregate data includes total numbers of cases by jurisdiction and totals for confirmed and probable cases where available. Line-level includes a de-identified line for each case with detailed demographic data.
The CDC aggregate case data is extremely similar to the state-reported data we have been capturing.
Since vaccinations began in late 2020, we expected them to show up first in our Long-Term-Care data. And it finally has. We’ve seen signs over the last few weeks that vaccines, along with a broader decrease in community spread, are having a rapid, positive impact in LTCs.
Deaths in LTCs have fallen drastically. After adjusting for backlogs, our weekly deaths figure has declined ~70% since Jan 7. LTCs previously accounted for at least 35% of total deaths, yet last week their share was cut to 16%, the lowest ever recorded in our dataset.
Since their peak just before Christmas, new cases in long-term-care facilities have fallen by 87%, with the bulk of the drop occurring in the last three weeks. New cases last week were the lowest ever recorded in our dataset, which dates back to May 28.