Happy last Saturday in Feb!

It’s Warren Buffett’s annual letter - a chance to learn.

An oddly quiet year amidst the chaos, for $BRK. Sometimes it’s your job to simply keep your head when those around you are losing theirs.

I’ll add thoughts below later.
berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2020lt…
Let’s get started.

Coffee + Wisdom shared by masters. I will thread highlights below: 👇👇
Berkshire’s resilience shines:
“We did, though, increase Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value by both retaining earnings and repurchasing about 5% of our shares.”

Rare to see a CEO state unequivocally that IVPS grew. Frankly, it’s rare to even mention IVPS.
Mistakes were made:
“The ugly $11 billion write-down is almost entirely the quantification of a mistake I made in 2016. That yr, BRK purchased Precision Castparts. I paid too much.”

No one misled me – I was too optimistic.

PCC is far from my first error. But it’s a big one.”
While describing the conglomerate train wreck of the 1960s & 70s era, it’s as if he’s describing SPACs:

“I’ll pay you $10,000 for your dog by giving you two of my $5,000 cats.”

“Most of the truly great businesses had no interest in having anyone take them over.”
More on conglomerates (SPACs?):

“Consequently, deal-hungry conglomerateurs focus on so-so companies that lacked important and durable competitive strengths. That was not a great pond in which to fish... often paying staggering ‘control’ premiums to snare their quarry.”
Convince me he’s not talking SPACs:

“The party ends: many ‘emperors’ are found to have no clothes. History is replete w/ names of famous conglomerateurs, lionized as business geniuses, whose creations ended up as biz junkyards.

“Conglomerates earned their terrible reputation.”
Buybacks Done Right:

“We demonstrated our enthusiasm for BRK’s spread of properties by spending $24.7 billion [on buyback, increasing]. Your ownership in all of BRK’s businesses by 5.2%.

“BRK has repurchased more shares in ‘21 & is likely to continue in the future.”
Fun Fact 1:
Berkshire has more US-based PP&E (capital investment) than any other company. AT&T is a distant second.
Fun Fact 2:
Berkshire’s BNSF railroad operation is comprised of 390 antecedents. 170 years after its 1850 founding, the industry has consolidated to a healthy state (this really completed two decades ago).
$BRK’s Top Fifteen public stock positions (16 if you include $KHC).

Hubba hubba 🍎 :
On pages 8-12, Warren takes us on a tour of America, and the serendipity of meeting amazing business people (Jack Ringwalt, Mrs. B, the Claytons, Leo Goodwin) and discovering amazing businesses (See’s). It’s the most charming section of the letter.
On that tour, WEB connects the dots to his fund & Charlie Munger’s fund in the 60s, taking control of $BRK, and his shareholders today, bucketing them into various groups, including “partners.” This is what really matters to him.

What a life he’s led.
The Dog that Didn’t Bark?

Nary a word on COVID.
Brass Tacks:
Another digital annual meeting, but this year in Los Angeles, with Charlie on stage beside Warren.

Back together. As it should be.
[I lightly edited many quotes to make them fit in Tweets. I tried to maintain his intent and voice.]

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More from @compound248

28 Feb
Legend, John Malone 🐐💎, in an hour-long video pod w/ Aryeh Bourkoff (TMT i-banker extraordinaire).

Take a trip through JM’s professional history (including when he & Buffett couldn’t understand how this kid Bill Gates’ little business had a moat).😱

1/
He and Buffett passed on investing in $MSFT’s IPO.

The second 30min talks about our modern times, and the business and technology environment.

He is a man who L❤️VES what he does.

He’s curious, smart, hungry, engaging. He knows his areas of competence.

Some lessons:
👇👇
- The value of surrounding yourself w/ quality people

- Trusting quality people to be great

- Form hypothesis first, then look at the data. Accept that feedback and hone your intuition

- Even if you’re right about the direction of the future, you’ll be wrong about the details
Read 4 tweets
26 Feb
I’m grateful for the great feedback on my first in-depth Revue newsletter.

I wrote about $TWTR’s mic drop 🎤.

Twitter announced a bigger set of feature releases over the next few months than we’ve 👀 in the past few yrs.

Link to the newsletter:
👇💎👇

getrevue.co/profile/compou…
"For years, Twitter investors would complain:

Why are you letting Patreon build a business on Twitter?

Why are you letting Substack build a business on Twitter?

When will you help your Creators get paid?"
"Twitter was a customer acquisition engine for Creators, but that was all.

'Receiving nothing while giving much' may sound magnanimous, but it actually created a suboptimal user experience."
Read 7 tweets
26 Feb
Shit is happening fast over at Twitter Global HQ.

- Today was #TWTRAnalystDay
- Spaces just got a big upgrade (Android!)
- Twitter shared a game-changing development pipeline

It's all happening, and I write about it in my new Revue newsletter
$TWTR🚀
1/

getrevue.co/profile/compou…
Brief newsletter excerpts:

TWTR just created a Super App (HT @akramsrazor)

Patreon? Totally obviated.

Substack? Totally obviated.

OnlyFans? Totally obviated.

(Well, not "totally"...OnlyFans famously offers certain adult subscriptions that I suspect TWTR will not support)
2/
Spaces dicovery:
When I tap the Spaces button, TWTR knows I'm ready for discovery. TWTR should immediately launch me into a Space that it believes matches my interests at that moment (this is also valuable promotional real estate). It should start automatically, like TikTok.
3/
Read 7 tweets
14 Feb
A Golden Age of SPAC short-selling approaches.

Extreme valuations, IPO froth, economic frailty, & WSB chaos are nice...

..but the train wreck that is post-deal SPACs is epic.

Each day the SPAC machine issues 5-10 more, driving future shorting profits to the moon.

🤑🚀💥

1/n
Post-deal SPACs skew toward 𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 company quality. The best analog is IPOs c1999.

With luck, SPAC-mania lasts for quite a while, REALLY stocking the pond.

We are going to witness Desperation Buying (TM) by sponsors, as they fight to deploy capital into shitcos.

2/n
Why Desperation Buying (TM)?

Sponsors either: get a deal approved & receive massive pay; or fail to get a deal & lose their sponsor equity, is a perverse incentive driving bad behavior.

It’s going to get MUCH worse, as this vintage matures.
🤮

Build your shorting list now.
3/n
Read 6 tweets
12 Feb
RobinHood co-founder, @vladtenev, has been busy the past week.

In addition to internal crisis management, Vlad had discussions via several different mediums, from CNN to newspapers to various YouTube channels.

💎💎🚀🚀👇👇

1/n
Sadly, the mainstream TV "news" showed how broken it is: the YouTubers' nuanced discussions are vastly superior.

The CNN & CNBC hot-takes bring shame to an industry that should pride itself in truth-seeking, not emotional beratement.

Looking at you @ChrisCuomo

👀

2/n
Given how HUGE the RH, $GME topic was just 2 weeks ago, the YouTube videos have been under-watched.

Ex: the below video with Vlad and RH's COO only has ~2,000 views.

I get it, not everyone has time for 30 min interviews - my brief thoughts follow.

3/n
Read 18 tweets
11 Feb
"FinTwit is awesome" led me to join Twitter.

But where is #fintwit? No actual such thing exists.

TWTR Lists was my answer.

Lists bring you to an alternate reality, where the only things you see relate to the List.

Ex: My FinTwit list

💰💎👇👇

1/n

twitter.com/i/lists/135935…
Twitter overwhelmed me at first. Topics helped some, adding wanted variety to my timeline.

But I find *well-assembled* Lists the most useful way to filter Twitterdom.

Sadly, Lists take time to create. So I've made a bunch for you to steal.

🌾💰
2/n

twitter.com/i/lists/135624…
Here's one I made that highlights short-sellers.

Anytime I'm looking at a business/stock, I scan this List to search for any discussion related to my target.

Short-sellers often do *incredible* forensic work, unearthing important questions.

🧐⁉️🛑
3/n

twitter.com/i/lists/135918…
Read 7 tweets

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