..but the train wreck that is post-deal SPACs is epic.
Each day the SPAC machine issues 5-10 more, driving future shorting profits to the moon.
🤑🚀💥
1/n
Post-deal SPACs skew toward 𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 company quality. The best analog is IPOs c1999.
With luck, SPAC-mania lasts for quite a while, REALLY stocking the pond.
We are going to witness Desperation Buying (TM) by sponsors, as they fight to deploy capital into shitcos.
2/n
Why Desperation Buying (TM)?
Sponsors either: get a deal approved & receive massive pay; or fail to get a deal & lose their sponsor equity, is a perverse incentive driving bad behavior.
It’s going to get MUCH worse, as this vintage matures.
🤮
Build your shorting list now.
3/n
We are seeing truly awful companies receive truly great valuations.
It’s very dangerous right now. But when the tide goes out, we will discover who’s been swimming naked.
Stay safe out there.
Let me know what deals you think are the most egregious below.
It's pretty clear @jack is fired up about what's coming at Twitter. The rebuild of $TWTR's tech stack & ad server have increased speed to market with new features.
Jack all but promised that Twitter's ability to innovate and iterate has accelerated dramatically.
1/n
A few days ago, @kayvz hosted a Twitter Spaces event, where he was live testing the experience. Kayvon said many of the same things Jack did.
Below is a portion of my raw notes from Kayvon, if interested.
If the business of Twitter isn't your jam, no need to read on:
2/n
Kayvon runs Product at Twitter - the non-revenue side of Twitter, aka product development. He founded Periscope.
Recall: Spaces is Twitter's competitive response to Clubhouse. An audio hangout.
3/n
Those emergency investors will get a quick win, as RH likely IPOs later this year.
“[RH] told investors they still plan to take the company public sometime in the first half of the year...To do so, he will have to clear the high growth bar set by Wall St. investors.”
Summary for what’s coming:
“Buckle up” - we are in uncharted territory.
Quick Notes:
Hard to predict future when the background is so unusual. Very dif than c2000. SDtTouches on positioning, including $BTC
1/4
Druck is:
Short long-dated USTs
Long commodities
“Very very short dollar”
Asia is the “big big winner” - $SEA
Next 5 years, Asia better than US (due to fiscal/debt, current account surplus, etc.)
2/4
$BTC - could be both a mega-bubble & a store of value. I don’t believe or not believe. I own some, and have for a while. I’m also long commodities.
“Possible, perhaps even probable” that the extreme stimmy will be here as vaxes complete. Massive pent up demand will unlock.
3/4
“Many customers aren’t aware of the complicated machinery behind each trade... And regulators and industry watchdogs decide things like how much capital and collateral brokerages have to post.”
“Behind the scenes, Robinhood and other brokers were dealing with a jam in the machine that moves shares from sellers to buyers.”
“Because of a lag between when investors book new positions in a stock and when their cash is actually exchanged for securities, brokerages ...have to maintain deposit accounts at the clearing firms that help finalize trades.”