A Golden Age of SPAC short-selling approaches.

Extreme valuations, IPO froth, economic frailty, & WSB chaos are nice...

..but the train wreck that is post-deal SPACs is epic.

Each day the SPAC machine issues 5-10 more, driving future shorting profits to the moon.

🤑🚀💥

1/n
Post-deal SPACs skew toward 𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 company quality. The best analog is IPOs c1999.

With luck, SPAC-mania lasts for quite a while, REALLY stocking the pond.

We are going to witness Desperation Buying (TM) by sponsors, as they fight to deploy capital into shitcos.

2/n
Why Desperation Buying (TM)?

Sponsors either: get a deal approved & receive massive pay; or fail to get a deal & lose their sponsor equity, is a perverse incentive driving bad behavior.

It’s going to get MUCH worse, as this vintage matures.
🤮

Build your shorting list now.
3/n
We are seeing truly awful companies receive truly great valuations.

It’s very dangerous right now. But when the tide goes out, we will discover who’s been swimming naked.

Stay safe out there.

Let me know what deals you think are the most egregious below.

🥳🕵️‍♂️👀🌋💥👇👇
Tagging:

@hkuppy
@JulianKlymochko
@SpacGuru

Thoughts on worst sponsors, worst deals welcome. It’s going to be epic.
Here’s 12 SPAC deal announcements from this past week.

Some of these are fine businesses, others are dogs, and another walks dogs 🐶 .

Thank you, thank you. I’ll be here all week.

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More from @compound248

12 Feb
RobinHood co-founder, @vladtenev, has been busy the past week.

In addition to internal crisis management, Vlad had discussions via several different mediums, from CNN to newspapers to various YouTube channels.

💎💎🚀🚀👇👇

1/n
Sadly, the mainstream TV "news" showed how broken it is: the YouTubers' nuanced discussions are vastly superior.

The CNN & CNBC hot-takes bring shame to an industry that should pride itself in truth-seeking, not emotional beratement.

Looking at you @ChrisCuomo

👀

2/n
Given how HUGE the RH, $GME topic was just 2 weeks ago, the YouTube videos have been under-watched.

Ex: the below video with Vlad and RH's COO only has ~2,000 views.

I get it, not everyone has time for 30 min interviews - my brief thoughts follow.

3/n
Read 18 tweets
11 Feb
"FinTwit is awesome" led me to join Twitter.

But where is #fintwit? No actual such thing exists.

TWTR Lists was my answer.

Lists bring you to an alternate reality, where the only things you see relate to the List.

Ex: My FinTwit list

💰💎👇👇

1/n

twitter.com/i/lists/135935…
Twitter overwhelmed me at first. Topics helped some, adding wanted variety to my timeline.

But I find *well-assembled* Lists the most useful way to filter Twitterdom.

Sadly, Lists take time to create. So I've made a bunch for you to steal.

🌾💰
2/n

twitter.com/i/lists/135624…
Here's one I made that highlights short-sellers.

Anytime I'm looking at a business/stock, I scan this List to search for any discussion related to my target.

Short-sellers often do *incredible* forensic work, unearthing important questions.

🧐⁉️🛑
3/n

twitter.com/i/lists/135918…
Read 7 tweets
10 Feb
$TWTR 💰💻

It's pretty clear @jack is fired up about what's coming at Twitter. The rebuild of $TWTR's tech stack & ad server have increased speed to market with new features.

Jack all but promised that Twitter's ability to innovate and iterate has accelerated dramatically.

1/n
A few days ago, @kayvz hosted a Twitter Spaces event, where he was live testing the experience. Kayvon said many of the same things Jack did.

Below is a portion of my raw notes from Kayvon, if interested.

If the business of Twitter isn't your jam, no need to read on:

2/n
Kayvon runs Product at Twitter - the non-revenue side of Twitter, aka product development. He founded Periscope.

Recall: Spaces is Twitter's competitive response to Clubhouse. An audio hangout.

3/n
Read 21 tweets
6 Feb
The backstory of RobinHood’s insane week & emergency fund raise:

As I’ve been writing, RH had a full blown liquidity crisis. RH could NOT meet DTCC’s initial call amount.

It cured the issue on the strength of its franchise, raising $3.5b of equity. 1/n

wsj.com/articles/robin…
Those emergency investors will get a quick win, as RH likely IPOs later this year.

“[RH] told in­vestors they still plan to take the com­pany pub­lic some­time in the first half of the year...To do so, he will have to clear the high growth bar set by Wall St. investors.”

2/n
RH’s business is going gangbusters.

Bizarrely, this whole event is likely to turn into a giant W for RobinHood.

I know that is frustrating and confusing for many people, but it’s true.

RH is well capitalized and is experiencing massive new customer onboarding.

3/n
Read 11 tweets
4 Feb
The Man, the Legend - Stan Druckenmiller.

Summary for what’s coming:
“Buckle up” - we are in uncharted territory.

Quick Notes:
Hard to predict future when the background is so unusual. Very dif than c2000. SDtTouches on positioning, including $BTC

1/4

Druck is:
Short long-dated USTs
Long commodities
“Very very short dollar”
Asia is the “big big winner” - $SEA
Next 5 years, Asia better than US (due to fiscal/debt, current account surplus, etc.)

2/4
$BTC - could be both a mega-bubble & a store of value. I don’t believe or not believe. I own some, and have for a while. I’m also long commodities.

“Possible, perhaps even probable” that the extreme stimmy will be here as vaxes complete. Massive pent up demand will unlock.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
30 Jan
Yup:

“Many cus­tomers aren’t aware of the com­pli­cated ma­chinery be­hind each trade... And reg­u­la­tors and in­dus­try watch­dogs de­cide things like how much cap­i­tal and col­lateral brokerages have to post.”

wsj.com/articles/robin…
“Be­hind the scenes, Robin­hood and other bro­kers were deal­ing with a jam in the ma­chine that moves shares from sell­ers to buy­ers.”
“Be­cause of a lag be­tween when in­vestors book new po­si­tions in a stock and when their cash is ac­tu­ally ex­changed for se­cu­ri­ties, bro­ker­ages ...have to main­tain de­posit ac­counts at the clear­ing firms that help fi­nal­ize trades.”
Read 7 tweets

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