I'm v excited about an #DeFi: an open financial system w reasonable valuations, real users, real revenue, a simple & direct model for remunerating "shareholders" & lenders, & a clear mkt beyond speculators: those w non-traditional income sources.

#ETH $AAVE $UNI $COMP $YFI
1/6
#DeFi protocols generate real revenue & distribute it directly to hodlers via coin burns which I think of as "programmatic stock buybacks". They also have known market caps.

This allows valuation via P/S ratios

2/6

theblockcrypto.com/data/decentral…
Many #DeFi valuations are smaller than SaaS w higher growth rates.

Annualized revenue & P/S ratios:
- UNI: $1.14B, P/S ~6
- SUSHI: $550M, P/S ~3.5
- COMP: $400M, P/S ~4.3
- AAVE: ~$144M/y w P/S ~30
- MKR: ~$60M, P/S ~30
- SNX: $36M, P/S ~75

3/6
SaaS valuations for context: avg SaaS P/S ~40x, avg growth ~40% y/y. #DeFi growth rates > 1000% y/y.

IMO because #DeFi use is so nascent most are not aware of the ecosystem let alone how simple valuation techniques can be used

4/6

@LynAldenContact has raised concerns that the #DeFi ecosystem is used to speculate on #DeFi & is rather circular

There is plenty of speculation (just like TradFi!) but #DeFi is v nascent & I expect more non-speculative activity over time

5/6

lynalden.com/ethereum-analy…
In contrast w @LynAldenContact's views I believe a #DeFi niche exists for those w non-traditional income sources (e.g. entrepreneurs/traders.)

I was v encouraged by this engineers use of #DeFi to be his own mortgage lender:
thedefiant.io/engineer-becom…

6/6
Just added to my $COMP & $UNI LT positions based on this analysis. I don't have massive positions in #DeFi alts vs. my core #Bitcoin, #Etherum, & equities but I'm v encouraged by the strong fundamentals & growth rates that eclipse even those of my beloved #MSOGang positions.

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More from @TheAdrianVeidt

28 Feb
0. We all want simple narratives but in reality mkts are messy (fallacies of compression & ambiguity avoidance)

This thread is my quest to understand the ~2/19-2/16 pullback & current memetic mkt dynamics vis-à-vis liquidity, structure, & psychology:
1. Extended retail/tech positioning:
- Low P/C ratio on Nasdaq => tech selloff as dealers dumped call hedges into 2/19 OpEx
- Tech selloff = scared momo & bears smelt blood causing shorts to start attacking ARK et al on 2/22
- Cathie starts FAANG rebalance to small cap
2. VIXperation 2/17
- VIX spread blown out due to UVXY inflows (credit @acrossthespread)
- 2/17 rolling caused VIX to rise from 2/12 onwards
- 2/15 long wkd effect causes VIX pop on 2/16 & traders to notice => reflexivity
- 2/17 exp removes vanna flows (credit @jam_croissant)
Read 9 tweets

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