I'm v excited about an #DeFi: an open financial system w reasonable valuations, real users, real revenue, a simple & direct model for remunerating "shareholders" & lenders, & a clear mkt beyond speculators: those w non-traditional income sources.
#DeFi protocols generate real revenue & distribute it directly to hodlers via coin burns which I think of as "programmatic stock buybacks". They also have known market caps.
Just added to my $COMP & $UNI LT positions based on this analysis. I don't have massive positions in #DeFi alts vs. my core #Bitcoin, #Etherum, & equities but I'm v encouraged by the strong fundamentals & growth rates that eclipse even those of my beloved #MSOGang positions.
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0. We all want simple narratives but in reality mkts are messy (fallacies of compression & ambiguity avoidance)
This thread is my quest to understand the ~2/19-2/16 pullback & current memetic mkt dynamics vis-à-vis liquidity, structure, & psychology:
1. Extended retail/tech positioning:
- Low P/C ratio on Nasdaq => tech selloff as dealers dumped call hedges into 2/19 OpEx
- Tech selloff = scared momo & bears smelt blood causing shorts to start attacking ARK et al on 2/22
- Cathie starts FAANG rebalance to small cap
2. VIXperation 2/17
- VIX spread blown out due to UVXY inflows (credit @acrossthespread)
- 2/17 rolling caused VIX to rise from 2/12 onwards
- 2/15 long wkd effect causes VIX pop on 2/16 & traders to notice => reflexivity
- 2/17 exp removes vanna flows (credit @jam_croissant)