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Thomas Juneau Profile picture
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27 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Insane story by @SarahDadouch, of a Saudi dissident who vanished in Canada.
-This is part of a pattern of pressure on and kidnapping of exiled Saudi dissidents - including, not for the first time, in Canada
-Al Harbi has a lot of information... (1/4)

washingtonpost.com/world/middle_e…
...on other Saudi dissidents in Canada and elsewhere - phone numbers, identities, etc. This can be useful for Saudi security services to try to hack their phones and pressure their families inside Saudi Arabia.
-Not that there was serious doubt, but this story shows that... (2/4)
... the growing foreign policy assertiveness under MbS may have toned down a bit since its peak in 2017/18 (Qatar blockade, kidnapping of Lebanese PM, dispute with Canada, Yemen war...) but clearly continues... (3/4)

For background on Canada-Saudi ties:
washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
... (yes, there were kidnappings of exiled dissidents before MbS - but not as much recklessness).

...and the longer academic version on the causes and consequences of the Canada-Saudi dispute (end):

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…

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More from @thomasjuneau

Thomas Juneau Profile picture
25 Feb
So - Biden finally spoke to Saudi King Salman today. Excerpts, with quick take (1/6):
1. "...address the longstanding partnership": this is meaningful - the statement is full of signals from Biden that this is a deep relationship that will continue.

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
2. "they discussed regional security, including the... efforts led by the UN and the US to end the war in Yemen": two things here, an emphasis the US is leading these efforts (which it was not before), and, by saying this is as the 1st item, a signal it is the top priority.
3. "and the U.S. commitment to help Saudi Arabia defend its territory as it faces attacks from Iranian-aligned groups": another clear signal - that the US remains committed to its role as the extra-regional guarantor of Saudi security.
Read 6 tweets
Thomas Juneau Profile picture
28 Aug 20
Canada needs to seriously plan for the possibility that the US will not be a liberal democracy anymore. This is not fear-mongering, but a real prospect. A Trump victory in November would be a generational game changer for our security, stability, and prosperity.
And, just to stay on the gloomy side, even if Biden wins, Canada (and the rest of the world) will have to live with the reality that at least 40% of Americans support, and will no doubt continue to support, his Trumpist agenda. That shit is not going to just disappear.
A couple things.
- if you equate Trudeau with Trump, you are blinded by partisanship and are part of the problem. Absolutely fair to be critical of Trudeau, but they are not on the same planet in terms of venality, corruption.
-same if you equate Canada's conservatives with Trump
Read 4 tweets
Thomas Juneau Profile picture
2 Jul 20
I have a new article in Comparative Strategy: was Obama a realist? many have said this, approvingly or critically; I evaluated his policies in the Middle East to test the claim.

Answer: Only partly. His policy was somewhat prudent and restrained... (1/5)

tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
..., especially in comparison with his immediate predecessor, but it also featured much continuity with the past.

He exercised restraint in the use of force, notably in resisting pressure to intervene in Syria. His policy towards IS was mostly sound. He recognized the threat...
as complex but far from existential; in response, he progressively ramped up until he reached a calibrated and proportional response, keeping a light footprint. His achievement of the JCPOA with Iran was also consistent with realism. In other areas, however, the gap between...
Read 5 tweets
Thomas Juneau Profile picture
3 Jun 20
There is growing attention to the case of Saad al-Jabri, a former high ranking Saudi official who has fled to Canada. Two of his kids are apparently jailed in Saudi to pressure him to return. Here is a quick recap of what we know with links to key articles.
-The first piece to raise the issue back in March is this by @daniaakkad (his name had come up in the media before, but this is the first to link him to Canada as far as I know, though I may be wrong).

middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive…
Then, @NYTBen discloses that two of his children have been jailed in Saudi Arabia to pressure Al-Jabri to return. Al-Jabri was very close to former Crown Prince and Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef, who Crown Prince MbS has aggressively pushed aside.

nytimes.com/2020/05/21/wor…
Read 22 tweets
Thomas Juneau Profile picture
24 May 20
There have been recent reports on Iran's role in Syria: that it has cost $20-30 billion since 2011 and that Iran "wants some of that back", and that Iran may be withdrawing. Quick thread on this.
-$20-30 billion cost? Just because an Iranian MP said this... (1/8)
...does not make it true. But the number (about $2-3 billion/year) is plausible given what we know of Iran's involvement.
-Contrast that to Saudi Arabia's cost of maybe $2-3 billion per *month" in Yemen (maybe more) and you get an idea of the spectacular ineffectiveness... (2/)
... of Saudi foreign policy (ie, for at least 10 times cheaper, Iran more or less achieved its objectives in Syria - Assad survived - while Saudi is not achieving much in Yemen).
-Iran "wants some of that back"? I interepret that as implying that Iran expects... (3/)
Read 8 tweets
Thomas Juneau Profile picture
8 Jan 20
My hypothesis on tonight:
-Iran knows every inch of Al-Asad and Erbil bases & knew US troops were secure; it purposely avoided them. Its short range missiles are precise enough to do that. Iran is fine with Iraqi casualties (it's happy to fight the US to the last Iraqi) (1/3)
-Iran gambled this would *not* trigger a US reponse
-remember, Iran absolutely wants to avoid an escalation it knows it would lose
-I wouldn't even be surpised if Iran signaled this to the US through some backchannel tonight (2/3)
-I obviously can't prove this but it would be consistent with tonight's event (Iran can say it has retaliated for Soleimani; then no US response, no Trump speech)
-In this scenario, expect much Trump bluster & threats tomorrow
-but it would be an offramp acceptable to both (end)
Read 8 tweets

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