I think we can be confident now that cases in the 70-74 age group are on their way down to join their friends in 75-79 and 80+ (maybe not falling quite as quickly as 75-79 did - but there's more in the 70-74s so it will take a bit longer to vaccinate them) 1/5
(also noting that 70-74s are in category 4 alongside the clinically extremely vulnerable, a total of ~4.4m people which is nearly double the ~2.3m in category 3, which was just the 75-79s) 2/5
Looking back at the 80+ in more detail, there's no real "new news" here - all progressing to plan 3/5
And no sign of movement in the 65-69s yet - but we wouldn't expect that just yet, give it another 7-10 days and we might start to see something 4/5
As some have pointed out, these graphs will stop working eventually as not all age groups can fall as a % of the total at the same time, for obvious reasons. But I think we've got a few more weeks before that becomes a big issue. /end
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Another quick ‘model update’ thread: it’s good news on vaccine uptake, but I also take a look at the Warwick & Imperial models, and explore a scenario with higher R0 that generates a (small-ish) fourth wave next winter. 1/n
Starting with the good news, the real-life experience and polling data on vaccine update keeps getting better, so I’ve updated my model to reflect this: now assuming 95% take-up in all high-risk categories (JCVI 1-9) and 90% in other adults. 2/n
(note I’m still assuming 5% dropout on the second dose, which may be wrong – I’d welcome any insights or links to data on how this is going – but to be honest, it’s not that material to the outcomes) 3/n
Model Update Klaxon: the good thing about publishing model results is that everyone tells me why they think the model is wrong – mostly constructively, and quite often I agree with them. So I’ve changed a few things, and it’s really good news. (thread)
A few links to previous threads here for anyone who's wondering what I'm talking about:
Most of the updates today are to do with children, which hasn’t been a big focus of my modelling, as I was much more worried about what was going on with the over-50s. But it’s starting to become more relevant as we begin to ‘flirt’ with the herd immunity threshold (HIT). 3/n
Although they don't change much day-to-day, I never get bored looking at these charts, because of the positive message behind them. and is that the first sign of the 70-74 line accelerating downwards? (just at the right time, 3 weeks after the peak vaccinations started) 1/n
and here's more boring data, with the sub-groups of 80+ all now consistently showing case rates (as a % of the all-ages total) >25% lower than they were in late January 2/n
some have asked me: why is the deviation not larger, when we know (from PHE/PHS published data) that the vaccines are more than 25% effective, and take-up has been nearly 100% in these age groups? And I think the answer is: 3/n
Since I updated my “vaccination & release” model last weekend, many people have asked me why it predicts a possible 4th wave, when so many people have already caught covid, or will have been vaccinated. To answer this it may be helpful to look at this chart: (thread)
This shows the proportion of the UK population that is immune either by having had covid (blue area), or by having been vaccinated (grey area, on top). In my model, the blue zone starts around 20% on Jan 1st (note this includes 2% who are infected with covid at that point) 2/n
This then grows to around 25% by the end of February, and stays flat around that level (i.e. not very many infections happening) until we remove the final set of controls in late June – note this is following the plan announced by Boris on Monday. 3/n
Just updating the deviation graphs that I posted a few days ago: no major changes in trend, but good to see the cases in 75-79s continuing to head strongly downward under the influence of the vaccine, following the 80+: (short thread)
(to be clear on method, these figures are the cases in each age group expressed as a % of the total, and then indexed to 100% on 25th Jan so that we can see the deviation in each group on the same scale) 2/n
here's the chart for each of the subgroups within the 80+, you can see the 85-89s falling furthest, but the 90+ now working to catch up. 3/n
Now the kids are in bed, I can focus on updating my model to deal with the many events of today. These include 1) Boris’s plan 2) recent case trends 3) news on vaccine effectiveness vs. serious disease, and vs. transmission. Results below: mostly good news. (thread)
1) Boris’s plan is not very different from some other scenarios we have already looked at – and just a few weeks slower to unlock than our base case. Regular readers will be able to predict that it pushes the “4th wave” peak into the autumn – but no real change to outcomes.
Note I’ve assumed that the final unlocking on June 21 goes into a “near normal” state with some continuing social-distancing requirements e.g. masks in crowded spaces, limits on large indoor events, ongoing WFH etc. – which lasts until 31 Dec.