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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
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1 Mar, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Ossoff outran Abrams in the vast majority of counties and unseated a popular incumbent in a race nobody wanted to initially even contest, whereas Abrams couldn't win an open seat.

Abrams lost Georgia by 2 points in a blue wave and she should have won that race.
I have nothing but respect for her work fighting voter suppression and I immensely appreciate the effort of organizers, but stop pretending Abrams was some electoral goddess. There is nothing to suggest anything of the kind and a lot that suggests she underperformed in 2018.
Have a look at this for how Ossoff outran Abrams.

Nobody wanted to run that Senate race initially. They wanted Abrams, Carter, or Nunn to run instead. None of them wanted to face Perdue, who was a popular incumbent.

Ossoff stepped up and won a race many Republicans thought wasn't even seriously close until ~August.
And as much as I respect Warnock, he ran against a far, far weaker candidate and it was Ossoff's campaign that provided a lot of the infrastructure for the joint ticket. Everyone ignores that.

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More from @lxeagle17

Lakshya Jain Profile picture
1 Mar
Ran a model on the South -- the map below shows the partisan performance by county *relative to what was expected given the 2020 environment* when using race, religion, education, and 2016 partisanship as underlying variables.

The Florida-Georgia contrast is striking.
Florida is a complete disaster. Democrats underperformed in Broward by 4.5%, Palm Beach by 5.1%, and Miami-Dade by 13.2%. Nowhere did they exceed the modeled swing by more than 3.3%.

Doesn't matter if the opponent is Trump, DeSantis, or Rubio. If this is how you do, you're toast
"Well, Hispanics swung right everywhere! The national environment we were dealing with was way different from what was expected!"

No. *Even accounting for all that*, Democrats absolutely collapsed in Florida this year and were below replacement level. There is no defending this.
Read 7 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
28 Feb
Created a regression model to analyze 2016->2020 swing based on demographics. Much of the swing in South Texas can actually be explained with education, race, urbanization, and religion when analyzing the Sunbelt.

But even then, there was still a definite underperformance there. Image
Blue means the area swung more towards Biden than expected given demographics. Red means the area swung more towards Trump than expected based on demographics.

Now, a bit of analysis...and what happened is far more complex than anyone wants to believe. There's no easy answer.
To my eye, the populous centers in South Texas would have seen a pretty big swing right either way. Hidalgo and Webb should have swung 17 points right instead of the 23 and 28 point margin.

So there should have been a big swing right. But a swing of this magnitude? Maybe not.
Read 18 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
26 Feb
Not even a competition. Get a grip, folks.
Again, Joe Manchin’s value over replacement is insane. Look at the gap between him and Capito in terms of voting with Democrats and realize that without Manchin, we’re praying Biden can just confirm a cabinet.
Sinema is a bit more annoying for me, but she was elected when AZ was flipping from red to blue and had to appeal to a whole ton of folks across the partisan spectrum. And she hasn’t actually broken with Democrats on any vote of consequence.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
22 Feb
So, do people think a lack of canvassing only means a turnout differential?

A lack of voter outreach also means folks can switch their vote too, because they just don’t see one side at all.
I said that the GOP drew heavily on low propensity voters turning out to boost their votes in the RGV — in essence, giving you some type of “manufactured swings”. But it’s not like that’s independent from a pool of voters switching their vote.
The word here is “key”. No one denies that there was some swing — how else could Biden underrun Clinton’s raw vote total in Starr?

But that swing is also likely connected to a lack of outreach and canvassing that saw the new GOP voters drown out the new Democratic votes.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
21 Feb
Yeah, the "we don't know how well this vaccine works and it probably won't help that much" rhetoric is basically the way you'd kneecap the vaccine rollout by making ordinary people falsely think that the vaccine is not that effective
I don't know why it is, but the minute we deliver good news about the vaccine being really good at blocking transmission (as shown in Israel) or being extraordinarily effective at preventing hospitalization, people jump on it to virtue signal about recklessness.
Like, sorry folks, but given the (rather baseless) skepticism embedded in America about vaccinations, the average person will be paying attention to rhetoric way more, and if you tell them the vaccine won't make much of a difference, why would they take it?
Read 6 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
18 Feb
Properly messaged, this scandal can seriously do some immense damage to Ted Cruz, even accounting for the fact that his re-election campaign is 3 years out.
Something like this bruises his favorability ratings among low-information voters, and it's generally kept independent of legislation and directly impacts the "trust" factor that is on an individual basis. It's a bit different from a party not delivering on campaign promises.
Photos play really well with the public if properly used and end up hurting the candidate among voters who don't tune into politics much and only know him as the "asshole who went to Cancun".
Read 4 tweets

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