Thread by @lxeagle17

Ran a model on the South -- the map below shows the partisan performance by county *relative to what was expected given the 2020 environment* when using race, religion, education, and 2016 partisanship as underlying variables.

The Florida-Georgia contrast is striking.

Florida is a complete disaster. Democrats underperformed in Broward by 4.5%, Palm Beach by 5.1%, and Miami-Dade by 13.2%. Nowhere did they exceed the modeled swing by more than 3.3%.

Doesn't matter if the opponent is Trump, DeSantis, or Rubio. If this is how you do, you're toast

"Well, Hispanics swung right everywhere! The national environment we were dealing with was way different from what was expected!"

No. *Even accounting for all that*, Democrats absolutely collapsed in Florida this year and were below replacement level. There is no defending this.

Georgia Democrats should be extremely proud of what they managed. The suburbs were primed for a large swing left from 2016, but they *still* managed to exceed the modeled swing left by a fair bit in the ring of counties surrounding Atlanta, and so GA finally was to the left of FL

On a side note, we all knew the Virginia Republican Party was losing ground fast in suburban and exurban areas, but this is impressive even for them; hats off to the @VAGOP for accelerating the swing of a safe red state into a safe blue one.

I don't know what happened in Florida. These problems are not limited to Dade, however; as @mcimaps said, the problems are statewide and will take a lot to fix.

Do *not* let the underperformance in Dade obscure the deep-rooted problems in the state or the incompetence of the FDP

The stronger-than-expected Democratic performance in western North Carolina is certainly unexpected. But it isn't enough to offset slightly underwhelming swings in Wake, Guilford, or Durham, and that's probably a large part of what cost NC Dems the state.