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1 Mar, 8 tweets, 7 min read
Weekly 5v5 Team Charts Thread (March 1st):
Expected Goals For vs Against (5v5) - March 1

The #GoHabsGo are still the class of the league when it comes to scoring chance share at 5v5. The #Canucks are crazy and high-event. The #GoStars and #LGRW are playing low-event defensive hockey. Image
Goals For and Against (5v5) - March 1

The #LetsGoBuffalo simply cannot score. The #GoSensGo simply can't get a save. The #GoBolts are having a great time though! Image
Goals For % vs Expected Goals For % (5v5) - March 1

Those games against the Canucks are still bankrolling the #GoHabsGo goals percentage. Every California team is down bad. #NYR are having the opposite season from last year - driving play but not getting bounces. Image
Goals For vs Expected Goals For (5v5) - March 1

Please, can somebody just score for #LetsGoBuffalo? Can #stlblues and #ALLCAPS donate some of their extra goals? Image
Goals Against vs Expected Goals Against (5v5) - March 1

The #Canucks , #GoSensGo , and #SJSharks are straight up not having a good time right now. The #NJDevils are getting bailed out. Image
Goaltending vs Finishing (5v5) - March 1

The #STLBlues are getting finishing. The #NJDevils are getting goaltending. The #GoBolts are getting both. The #GoSensGo are getting neither. Image
All of these visualizations can be found daily on my Patreon (along with lots of other stuff) for $5+ subscribers:

patreon.com/jfreshhockey

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More from @JFreshHockey

JFresh Profile picture
3 Mar
My thoughts on PDO (since it's come up):

- Flawed because not all teams have equally talented finisher/goaltenders
- Useful because luck is by far a larger driver than talent
- Useful because it's very hard to just "guess" goaltending and finishing talent for a team...
- Useful because while goaltending and finishing do have a talent component (obviously) they are also extremely variable, especially from season to season.
- Useful because it has been shown that season-to-season and mid-season to mid-season it does regress towards 100
We know that skater finishing and goaltending isn't that far from random from season to season. If a model factoring in xG can barely pick out player-level talent, how should we expect the layman trying to figure out if his team's #s are sustainable to pick it out at a team level
Read 4 tweets
JFresh Profile picture
2 Mar
A reminder of some of the 2020-21 season visualizations available to $5+ Patreon supporters - we've added a whole lot!

Like these team cards, which show off a team's rank in the most important on-ice stats:
And these head-to-head cards, which let you compare two teams directly based on their underlying numbers (offence- and defence-focused cards also available)
And the set of team visualizations which show off team performance in playdriving, goals, finishing, and goaltending.

Like this one which shows expected goal rates for and against:
Read 7 tweets
JFresh Profile picture
2 Mar
My sources are telling me that Eichel to the Sens is certainly a possibility, but the Sabres would want Shane Pinto as the main piece going back. That's most likely a no-go for Ottawa
Could things change in the future? Never say never. But the Sens organization considers Pinto to be huge part of their middle six moving forward and it would take a better piece than Eichel to pry him out of Ottawa. #GoSensGo
Read 4 tweets
JFresh Profile picture
28 Feb
Fun fact: the Edmonton Oilers rank first in the NHL in the percentage of their shots, shot attempts, and unblocked shot attempts that are taken by defencemen. #LetsGoOilers
Evan Bouchard leads all defencemen in personal share of on-ice shots taken. By far. Of the Oilers' 80 5v5 shots on goal with him on the ice, he has taken 31 (39%).

2nd place is Nick Holden with 28%. #LetsGoOilers
Oilers defencemen ranks in personal share of on-ice 5v5 shots on goal:

Evan Bouchard (1st)
Tyson Barrie (17th)
Kris Russell (58th)
Darnell Nurse (67th)
Caleb Jones (89th)
Slater Koekkoek (90th)
Adam Larsson (128th)
Read 4 tweets
JFresh Profile picture
25 Feb 20
Goodrow for a 1st is the most controversial trade of the day, for good reason. I have some thoughts on the deal, which are somewhat contradictory but stay with me. #GoBolts
Goodrow has a decently strong analytical profile that places him roughly in the 60th percentile of NHL skaters in terms of wins above replacement. He's also done well enough in bigger minutes this season, and will be cheap next year for cap-strapped TB.
The 1st round draft pick (actually a pick swap between an early 3rd and a late 1st, so about 40-50 picks) does not have a particularly high chance of become an impact player - as past studies have shown, the gap in on-ice value between a late first and an early 3rd is very small.
Read 9 tweets

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