$JYNT is going to need a massive beat and raise to justify the 73% YTD performance
This is a solid reopening play with a crystal clear path to consistent 20+% growth, but it's now trading at 53x NTM EV/Adj. EBITDA with 15% Adj. EBITDA margins growing revenues at 24% in 2021
I'm considering trimming ~20% of my position before earnings on Thursday
$JYNT did beat revenue consensus by 12.5% in Q3 and posted EPS of $0.11 vs. $0.03E, so there's precedent for a massive beat and raise
It might take a $20M Adj. EBITDA guide (vs. current $11M) to support shares at $46.
I don't like to trim companies I believe in, but even great beat and raise quarters where shares have not run into the print have been getting punished, so I can't imagine this one goes well.
Trimmed 20% of my $JYNT position
This YTD run has been incredible but I have no idea who is buying up here
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Leverage ratio down to 1.2x Adj. EBITDA from 1.3x in Q3 and 2.8x YoY
All time high renewal-rate of 88%
Guides # of members to be flat or better in 2021
Guides MFI growth to be 4-5%
Plan to open 6 clubs in 2021 and 10+ in 2022
Mgmt. expects 2021 membership, sales, and profitability to be well ahead of historical averages
Digitally enabled sales up 168% YoY
Long-term growth will be well above guidance given at 2018 IPO
"We expect dramatically higher unit growth rates as we push towards 10-plus units per year allowing us to tap into considerably expanded addressable markets and grow share"
129% full year dollar-based net retention (includes a bad Q3)
Cloud gross margin of 61.7% vs. 54% Q4 '20
Significant improvement in OCF
Important tidbits from the call:
"You will definitely see cash flow revert to positive this year"
"51% of software bookings coming from cloud in Q4" (onto the back half of the model transition)
"Triple digit growth in observability"
"1/3 of cloud customers are new customers"
"In Q4, we saw procurement patterns that were closer to what we experienced in Q1 and Q2, and we were able to close transactions with several accounts whose deals slipped in Q3."
"We've seen that when our customers move to cloud, the investment they make in Splunk expands"
One interesting angle on $EVO is the dividend-growth story that is quickly emerging.
Mgmt. has a policy that ~50% of consolidated net profit be returned as an annual dividend.
$EVO is now yielding .67%, which doesn't sound to appealing as a dividend play.
However, most dividend paying companies aren't near-monopolies growing 53% YoY with significant operating leverage and a variable dividend policy tied directly to net profit growth
Net profit grew 90% in 2020 (the dividend grew "only" 62% because of dilution mainly from the NetEnt acquisition)
There likely isn't another NetEnt-sized acquisition this year, and as $EVO grows, the dilutive effects of small M&A will decrease substantially