A momentous day as Orbán leaves the @EPPGroup that has defended & empowered him for a decade as he built the EU’s first autocracy. Having written articles & given interviews on the topic for years, I’m feeling a bit like this 👇 today. 🧵to follow shortly on the whole saga. 1/n
https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1367054662692667392
2. First of all we must appreciate what a huge step this is. @EPP / @EPPGroup political protection was crucial in enabling Orban to build an autocracy within the EU. His departure won't instantly free the EU from its autocracy trap, but it is a huge step and cause to celebrate!
3. Europarties providing political protection to pet autocrats is a key pillar of the "EU's Authoritarian Equilibrium." @EPP isn't the only Europarty to have a pet autocrat/aspiring autocrat, but it has been the worst offender. See my article & 🧵here 👇
https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1232905711182544896?s=20
4. Just to reiterate the key point: @EPP provided Orban political protection from EU censure & in exchange he provided them with votes in @EPPGroup in @Europarl_EN more generally helped @EPP be largest party & dominant force in EU politics (& his votes helped elect @vonderleyen)
5. @EPP's failure to stand up to Orban not only helped him consolidate an autocracy, it encouraged others inside the EPP (like Borisov and Jansa) and in other parties (like Kaczynski and others) to follow his path. On other examples see... aspen.review/article/2018/e…
6. I would add that fact that Orban's political family was the most powerful always provided him with more political protection than Kaczynski enjoyed in the smaller ECR party, as I showed here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
7. Phenomenon of democratic parties at 'union' level supporting state level autocrats who deliver votes isn't unique to EU: Literature on "subnational authoritarianism" in US, Mexico, Argentina etc by people like Gibson @robmickey shows it is common
https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1074725065357438976?s=20
8. This problem has been obvious for years (I wrote about it already in 2015!) so what changed now? politico.eu/article/epp-de…
9. Importantly, @katka_cseh reminds us today of all the things that weren't 'the final straw" for @EPPGroup. Dismantling free press, attacking academic freedom, mass theft of EU funds & being ranked as EU's first non-democracy didn't prompt expulsion.
https://twitter.com/katka_cseh/status/1367053689568059393?s=20
10. Orban crossed every supposed 'red line' the @EPP set out for him in recent years as @ProfPech & I pointed out, and until now did so with impunity. So what was the final straw? verfassungsblog.de/of-red-lines-a…
11. Well in the end, Fidesz went to far when one of their MEPs compared @EPPGroup leader @ManfredWeber to the Gestapo in the context of fights over @EPPGroup support for (and Orban's opposition to) the new rule of law budget conditional mechanism:
https://twitter.com/euronews/status/1339631804811251714?s=20
12. So, in short, majority of @EPPGroup was fine with Orban building an autocracy, but directly attacking and insulting its leaders was too much.
https://twitter.com/fromTGA/status/1367058774826115073?s=20
13. That being said there were righteous @EPPGroup MEPs, individuals like @othmar_karas & @RadtkeMdEP @petrisarvamaa and several Nordic & Baltic parties who long pushed for Orban's expulsion. Thank you! 
https://twitter.com/matikolb/status/1366791886812413959
14. One additional factor may be that some national member parties may have been getting more flack from their voters about their alliance with Orban. I'm working on a new paper with @jbslapin @FenzlMichele & Pit Rieger on question of how voters view such Europarty alliances
15. Until now a key aspect of all this has been that parties like @CDU that would never ally with far-right authoritarians domestically have been happy to do so at EU level in Europarties, as voters aren't aware of it. (see me & @chriswratil ). welt.de/debatte/kommen…
16. One person who doesn't deserve credit now is @ManfredWeber. He may have finally turned against Orban, but as @ProfPech & I explain here, he is too tainted by his years of championing Orban euronews.com/2019/03/08/eje…
17. So what now? One detail is that while Orban is pulling out of @EPPGroup in the Parliament, he remains in the @EPP Europarty. Wasn't he suspended from @EPP in 2019 you ask? Not really. That 'suspension' was a red herring to distract from fact he remained in @EPPGroup.
18. If you find that confusing... it was meant by EPP to confuse you so they could keep using Orban's votes in @Europarl_EN and so he would help elect @vonderleyen President (see washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/…) . So the ruse worked, but it is over now.
19. @othmar_karas assures us Orban will be leaving @EPP soon too. The only question is which party he will join next?
https://twitter.com/othmar_karas/status/1367094003129319429
20. My guess would be he will join ECR with Kaczynski's PiS. They disagree about Putin, but agree on support for autocracy within the EU. The fact that he hadn't lined up a new Europarty already suggests Orban was taken by surprise by @EPPGroup move against him.
21. What will be longer term implications for the EU & Hungary? Lots of uncertainty, but I expect a few main consequences: 1. Orban's ouster from @EPP will increase likelihood of tougher EU action against him. Article 7 won't happen due to support from PL & others, but
22. @EPP is a dominant force in the @EU_Commission with last 3 Presidents being EPP & pluralities of College being EPP. Commission was soft on Orban b/c he had protection of EPP. That will end so infringement actions & use of new conditionality mechanism more likely.
23. Importantly, Orban's ouster sends a signal to other aspiring autocrats in EU that if they push it too far they may lose political protection & face the shame of expulsion. This could have a deterrent effect on others (just as past appeasement had encouraged them).
24. Second, this will hurt Orban in Hungary. He benefited from legitimacy of EPP membership. He had aura of invincibility also by not being expelled. He will try to spin this in state media of course, but most who hear of it will see his departure as a humiliation for him
25. I don't think leaving @EPP will radicalize Orban, since as @ProfPech & I showed (above) EPP had zero constraining effect on Orban anyway. He laughed at them as he crossed EPP red lines, took EU money and built his autocracy.
26. Ultimately only the domestic opposition can oust Orban. That is tough since 🇭🇺 elections are no longer fair (as @OSCE determined in 2014 & 2018). But at least now we can hope EU will stop bolstering his regime so much, & that should give hope to the democratic opposition.
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