White wards in SW St. Louis, like 16, 24, 23, and 10 cast the most votes per ballot (as many as 1.79).
Black wards on the north side, like 1, 27, 21, and 4, cast the fewest (1.34 votes per ballot or lower).
Cara Spencer, the white progressive alderwoman, won a spot in the runoff by doing well in white wards, both conservative working-class ones and liberal gentrifying ones. She got very little support on the Black north side. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Tishaura Jones, the Black progressive city treasurer, got the most votes by being the one choice of most Black north siders but also sharing support with Spencer in mixed, liberal wards like 8 and 15. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Lewis Reed, the moderate Black aldermanic president, did consistently OK, finishing second both on the Black north side and in the conservative, white SW. (He was so consistent, in fact, that he got between 445-465 votes in 8 of the 28 wards!) docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
The strongest correlation between candidates was a negative one: Tishaura Jones did worse as Andrew Jones, the race's lone Republican, did better. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
There was also a negative correlation between T. Jones and Spencer, but it overshadows the wards where they both did well. This scatter really shows the Black wards on the left, the gentrified wards in the upper right, & the WWC wards in the lower right.
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Seems the point is to sabotage the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact by preventing a popular vote calculation. Buuut unless the popular vote is super close, you'll still know who won it even without exact North Dakota results.
1. North Dakota is very small—only 565K eligible voters. Biden won the popular vote by 7 million.
2. If we know ND's percentages, you can apply those to even a rough turnout estimate and get a decent guess at the popular vote. Again, unless it's super close, you'll know.
This deserves a thoughtful response. First, I don't think it's true that all reporters thought Georgia was Lean R. Many of us wrote of it as a pure tossup... fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-c…
That said, if you had asked me two years in advance who'd have won a GA runoff, yes, I'd have said Republicans. There was SOME evidence for this (i.e., GOP overperformance in runoffs). But obviously, 1/5 showed that could be overcome.
So can the evidence for a good GOP year in 2022 be overcome too? Sure. But also, there is a MUCH bigger sample size of evidence saying midterms are bad for the prez party than there were for GA runoffs being pro-GOP.
Up to six state legislators I'm aware of who were in Wednesday's mob:
-MI state Rep. Matt Maddock
-MO state Rep. Justin Hill
-PA state Sen. Doug Mastriano
-TN state Rep. Terri Lynn Weaver
-VA state Sen. Amanda Chase
-WV state Del. Derrick Evans
I have to wonder if any of them will be removed from office. Chase is the only one in a D-controlled chamber, but the 14th Amendment may provide a legal path to disqualify them. law.cornell.edu/constitution/a…
Looks like I missed some (many of these people say they left when things got violent, though):
-AK state Rep. David Eastman
-AZ state Rep. Mark Finchem
-Incoming NV state Assemb. Annie Black
I realize all the updates have probably been confusing, so let me try to summarize the #IA02 situation.
21 out of the district's 24 counties (all but Clinton, Jasper, & Scott) have recounted and certified results. Miller-Meeks (R) leads by 35 votes in those counties.
Jasper County just finished its recount and Hart (D) netted 1 vote (which would narrow the margin to 34 votes overall). These new results haven't been certified but there's no reason to think they won't be.
Scott County also finished its recount today and Hart netted 26 votes (which would narrow the margin to 8 votes). These new results haven't been certified AND might not be, because there was a 131-ballot discrepancy between the recount total and original total.
FiveThirtyEight is out with a big project this week—no, not that one. Introducing our state-by-state guide to voting in the pandemic: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-20…
First, we have a big map of mail-voting rules in each state. On the liberal end, 9 places are mailing ballots to every voter. On the conservative end, 8 states are still requiring voters to provide an excuse. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-20…
But here's the really exciting part: Click on your state and you'll get a big guide to how to vote: deadlines for registering, requesting and submitting a mail ballot, access to in-person and early voting... projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-20…
If you'll permit me a pedantic "well, actually" thread... #Actually, absentee voting and mail voting ARE different.
1. The way Trump seems to be distinguishing them, "mail voting" = a state mails everyone a ballot automatically. "Absentee voting" = voters have to proactively request a ballot. You may prefer the former or the latter setup, but there IS a difference.
2. Absentee voting can be done in person; many states simply have "in-person absentee voting" in lieu of early voting. When you see stats like "X% of votes were absentees" that doesn't mean X% were mailed in.