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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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4 Mar, 13 tweets, 7 min read
⚠️KIDS ages 5-12 now the *highest positive prevalence age group* for #COVID19 in England🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 in February (not previously in Jan), despite lockdown.

➡️ Higher odds of COVID for workers in: healthcare, transport, & education, school, nursery or childcare. 🧵
spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1…
2) there is definitely something going on with the #B117 variant (where it is fully dominant in 🇬🇧) and kids. This new weird pediatric trend has been now seen in Italy 🇮🇹 Israel 🇮🇱 Denmark 🇩🇰 and many other places. Italy’s leadership sounded the alarms recently about B117 & kids.
3) We should have seen this Italian village where 60% of the cases being in primary school kids as a canary in the coal mine signal. I was very worried at the time...
4) I tried to warn about this a month ago based on the early positivity data coming out of England then. Kids curves were already diverging from adults...
5) I’ve actually been warning about this since the new year... when I first saw this data comparing #B117 vs old common strain(s)... the B117 had higher attack rates overall, but relatively greater increase in kids under 10. I’ve been worried since.
6) were schools open in Feb? to a limited degree, yes, some.

Safe school opening is key. I’m not anti schools, I’m staunchly pro safe schools.
7) So how do we make schools safe? MASKS and INDOOR AIR QUALITY! Specifically ventilation + air disinfection. The CDC just released new school safety guidance on ventilation and air cleaning:
8) and what did England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 report on as top activities for testing positive?! Read the graph yourself.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
9) Also, you can see the unique divergent lines again for primary school (red line) compared to other age groups. Notice primary school didn’t stand out last year before. Now it has. Theorized to be #B117.
10) Stay safe — we are in the cusp of a 4th surge in the US. CDC director warns about #B117 🇬🇧 variant hijacking our case declines and triggering a new wave. #COVID19
11) Don’t forget, all this is despite widespread under diagnosis of #COVID19 in kids. Real numbers likely much higher. See new CDC study below.
12) Now there is concern that the faster spreading #B117 variant might also have a double whammy in also being more severe... and it comes from detailed Danish CDC data.
13) #B117 now most common in kids says new French nationwide data. This matches the UK data quite closely. Very worrisome. See thread 🧵

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
6 Mar
HORRIFYING #COVID19 death curve in one of wealthiest cities in Brazil— Porto Alegre is capital of Rio Grande do Sul— with many top-notch hospitals with better rating than most US🏥. And their health system still collapsed under #P1.

Imagine now rest of 🇧🇷.

(HT @alexaguiarpoa) Image
2) No need to imagine.. here is what is now going on. 17 capital cities now at 100% icu capacity. Image
3) Brazil has been now inundated by #P1 which now dominates #COVID19 in the country. It is possibly the most infectious variant seen to date.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
6 Mar
CATACLYSMIC—Hospitals at 100% ICU capacity in 17 cities in Brazil.

“They are very traumatized."

“Very serious”

Brazil 🇧🇷 hits a daily record for #COVID19 deaths as hospitals verge on near collapse under new wave, as more contagious #P1 variant spreads.
2) I cannot emphasize enough how horrible the situation is in Brazil. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3) The situation is so dire in Brazil now. And the #P1 variant may just be the most contagion variant seen to date. See thread 🧵
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Mar
📍STARK WARNING—“Whatever #SARSCoV2 variants summit that peak could be a considerably bigger problem than any variants that we know”—with “any combinations of increased transmissibility, altered virulence and/or ⬆️ capacity to escape population immunity.”
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2) “The emergence & rapid rise in prevalence of three independent #SARSCoV2 '501Y lineages' #B117 #B1351 #P1 has prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionarily capacity to adapt to both rising population immunity and public health interventions such as vaccines & distancing.”
3) “Viruses giving rise to 501Y lineages have, presumably under intense natural selection following a shift in host environment, independently acquired multiple unique & convergent mutations. As a consequence all have gained properties that likely complicate control of #COVID19.”
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Mar
💡EFFECTIVE—Single-dose Oxford–AstraZeneca #COVID19 vaccine followed by a 12-week booster. Vaccine efficacy was significantly higher at 81·3% after two standard doses given at an interval of >=12 weeks, versus 55·1% when doses <6 weeks apart. Good news! 🧵
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
2) “findings were supported by immunogenicity studies done in participants who were younger than 55 years, showing anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG antibody responses more than two-fold higher in those who had a dose interval of >=12 weeks than in those who had an interval of <6 weeks”
3) “Notably, efficacy against any nucleic acid amplification test-positive cases, including symptomatic and asymptomatic or unknown cases, was 63·9% (46·0 to 75·9) after a single standard dose, suggesting the possibility of reducing viral transmission.”
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Mar
JAPAN 🇯🇵 WARNS OF POTENTIAL “FOURTH WAVE”—Over 230 cases of highly infectious variant strains of the novel coronavirus have been confirmed in in Japan. Experts warning of a potential "fourth wave" should they continue to spread across the country. #COVID19
english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/03/0…
2) Here is one of the new Japan outbreaks of #B117 —linked to a school for kids under 10. This matches a lot of other trends on elevated B117 risk in kids.
3) Japan’s warning on #B117 potentially triggering another surge also matches what CDC director warns about B117 and a new surge in US too. See 🧵
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Mar
This is the most worrisome article on anti-vaxxer movement in a long time. It’s so insane... it makes my blood boil how prevalent science denialism is in evangelical community. And it’s hurting pandemic mitigation. #COVID19
google.com/amp/s/www.wash…
2) “on TikTok, young Christians act out biblically inspired scenes in which they are forced to take a vaccine, only to end up splattered in fake blood and on the brink of death—to represent how the introduction of coronavirus vaccines could herald the biblical End Time.”
3) “Along with hundreds of thousands of other vaccine-questioning posts by social media users all over the world, they’re demonstrating the ways in which health misinformation is targeting Christians, some reaching sizable audiences.
Read 5 tweets

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