1. ~20 yrs after 9/11, it's time 2 think thru what a rationalized & sustainable U.S. CT global posture should look like. We've built great CT tools over 20 yrs, but tools should not dictate strategy. Next week @WashInstitute publishes my CT policy review paper, lots 2 discuss
2. Biden admin interim guidance echoes broadly bipartisan desire 2 rationalize U.S. investment in CT that goes back at least two administrations including pledge not to engage in “forever wars” & to “right-size” U.S. military presence in Mideast whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
3. When it comes to fighting terrorism overseas, mood has shifted to focus on groups presenting threats to homeland, while addressing regional terrorist threats thru intel & action by local partners. But such a shift comes with risks
4. Need 2 free resources to address other NatSec threats like inter-state competition is 1 driver in CT shift. 2018 National Defense Strategy is clear, “Inter-state strategic competition, not terrorism, is now the primary concern in U.S. national security" dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Docu…
5. GPC aside, U.S. faces array of challenges at home, from public health & economic challenges from Covid-19 to social & racial justice issues, infrastructure needs, climate change, & more, which all demand big investment at time of shrinking budgets & fast-growing deficit
6. Some issues I explore: How should policymakers frame the goal of CT? Can U.S. move away from a forward-defense model to one based on indicators & warning without sacrificing security gains of past 20 years? Are CT & GPC mutually exclusive or somewhat complementary?
7. U.S. wants to flip U.S.-led & partner-enabled model. Is that doable? How strong are U.S. partnerships today, & how credible is the U.S. as a reliable CT partner? How can CT diplomacy be jumpstarted, & what more can be done to boost civ CT capacity building?
8. Shifting from forward defense to indicators & warning puts huge burden on IC @ODNIgov, which is long overdue for modernization & innovation, esp re IA & machine learning. See final report of @AiCommission
nscai.gov/wp-content/upl…
nscai.gov/wp-content/upl…
9. Finally, can't just move military assets & expect CT intel resources to remain. For 20 yrs, most CT intel capabilities were grafted on kinetic military budgets. Will need serious budgetary gymnastics to disentangle these
10. Lots more in the full report, due out next week. Looking forward to the conversation to follow /END
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
