Thread by @Levitt_Matt

Recent @UN Security Council report @UN_CTED the current state of ISIL, Al-Qaeda, and associated individuals and entities. un.org/securitycounci… Grab a fresh cup of coffee and follow along as I highlight some key points that stood out to me......

@UN @UN_CTED 1. “ISIL, however, remains much stronger than AQ in terms of finances, media profile and current combat experience and terrorist expertise and remains the more immediate threat to global security.” There there's the death of Hamza bin Ladin. brookings.edu/blog/order-fro… @dbyman

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman 2. @azelin‘s has documented how AQ has “survived drones, uprisings, and the Islamic State.” Read more about the group’s survival mechanisms in this @WashInstitute Policy Focus. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute 3. As @hoffman_bruce explained at this @WashInstitute Policy Forum, ISIL has widened the scope of terrorist radicalization and recruitment thru online propaganda and how-to guides washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce 4. UN reports terrorist groups in the Sahel & West Africa demonstrate “growing ambition and reach,” while the threat to Afghanistan, Libya, and Somalia persists. Note @azelin warning not to ignore the foreign fighter presence in Libya washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… @WashInstitute

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce 5. Senior ISIL personnel have taken refuge in Syria’s Idlib province, “the world’s biggest dumping ground for foreign terrorist fighters.” As @FabriceBalanche notes, this has created a “humanitarian time bomb” washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… @WashInstitute

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche 6. “ISIL is adapting, consolidating and creating conditions for eventual resurgence in its Iraqi and Syrian heartlands"--in other words, it is not yet defeated washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche 7. Interesting note with #CVE/disengagement implications: While ISIS is protecting leadership, “Most foreign terrorist fighters are seen as dispensable and are left to fend for themselves" washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche 8. “ISIL is assessed to retain financial reserves totaling between $50 million and $300 million and to be able to direct funds both within the core conflict zone and globally.”
Indeed, ISIS is financially resilient washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… @WashInstitute

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche 9. UN notes ISIL is destroying resources to undermine confidence in government. Crop fires “prevent reconciliation, stabilization and recovery in areas that were part of the ‘caliphate.’” washingtonpost.com/world/mystery-… @LizSly @washingtonpost

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost 10. We should expect more ISIL-inspired attacks, possibly in unexpected locations, UN says washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost 11. ISIL acts as a “hub-and-spoke network,” with dispersed leadership and oversight of newer outfits by established affiliates. Affiliates receive “seed money” & advice from “head office,” but “independence is the expectation.” washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… @katebauer @WashInstitute

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer 12. Risk of 30,000 FTFs, dependents, returnees, & re-locaters remains acute. See my @resolvenet recommended reading on the subject bit.ly/2MwST1M & @WashInstitute piece @azelin & I wrote on challenges to repatriation, reintegration, & prosecution washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet 13. “ISIL leaders are monitoring political developments in key Western European countries and considering attacks to exacerbate existing dissent and unrest.”

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet 14. UN reports 150 ISIL elements remain south of Damascus, 800 in Raqqah, and Hasakah, and reports 30 attacks against US and @coalition since early 2019

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition 15. UN report offers good explanation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) versus Hurras al-Din (HAD) in Syria. 12,000-15,000 vs. 1,500-2,000 fighters. Many FTFs vs. few. Domestic vs. international outlook.

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition 16. UN: With “the right amount of money,” light weapons, ammunition, and vehicles are readily available in Idlib.

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition 17. AQAP is intent on maintaining dominance in Yemen. Weapons arsenal includes SA-7 and SA-9 missile systems, Grad 122-mm and Katyusha 107 and 122-mm rockets, and ZU-23 and 37-mm anti-aircraft batteries.

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition 18. Despite the foreign fighter influx to Libya @azelin has detailed, UN reports ISIL top leadership there today is largely Libyan. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… @WashInstitute

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition 19. ISIL in Libya lines its coffers through investments in small and medium-sized enterprises, taxation of human trafficking networks, antiquities theft, and extortion. See @katecbauer on the diversification of terror financing mechanisms. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… @WashInstitute

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer 20. “650 schools have opened under the control of JNIM supporters who are seeking to transform society in accordance with the group’s teachings." See @jolidort re jihadist textbooks & indoctrination in Inside the Caliphate’s Classroom washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… @WashInstitute

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort 21. The other trib-border area with a terrorism problem..... UN: ISIL & AQ affiliates are particularly active in West Africa: “The ‘W’ National Park, in the tri-border area between Benin, Burkina Faso and the Niger is becoming a new stronghold.”

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort 22. Al-Shabaab is undergoing a strategic shift, from carrying out high-impact attacks to more high frequency, small-scale, sustained actions.

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort 23. As if the Ebola crisis isn’t enough, UN reports the ISIL threat in Central Africa is “continuing to evolve.” washingtonpost.com/world/africa/a… @maxbearak @washingtonpost

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort @maxbearak 24. Terrorists still trying, but authorities getting good at disruption.... “Security services in Europe have noted a relatively high rate of disrupted attacks owing to the poor tradecraft and unsophisticated methods of would-be attackers.”

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort @maxbearak 25. But radicalization within European prisons remains a key area of concern--“…prisons provide a venue for inmates afflicted by poverty, marginalization, frustration, low self-esteem and violence to be influenced by radical ideologies.”

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort @maxbearak 26. Globally, 24,000-30,000 ISIL members are estimated to have survived the destruction of the territorial Caliphate. 5,000-6,000 FTFs traveled from Europe to Syria and Iraq, and 3/4 joined ISIL. 30 to 40% of those have returned to Europe. Major cause for concern

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort @maxbearak 27. European countries remain unsure how to prosecute women and children who engaged in terrorist violence abroad. There are female terrorists too, as @azelin explained re: Tunisian fighters. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… @WashInstitute

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort @maxbearak 28. On the eve of a potential agreement with the Taliban, “Al-Qaida considers Afghanistan a continuing safe haven for its leadership.” Report says “Al-Qaida members continue to function routinely as military and religious instructors for the Taliban.”

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort @maxbearak 29. Despite ISIL claim of responsibility, UN investigations revealed ISIL core did not direct or facilitate the Sri Lanka attacks, nor did it know about them in advance. Attacks were a locally instigated & led attack inspired by ISIL ideology--a“blueprint” for incidents to come

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort @maxbearak 30. Two ISIL trends in South Asia are targeting places of worship and the prominence of women in operational activities.

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort @maxbearak 31. ISIL used mustard gas in 15 separate incidents from 2015 to 2017. The know-how remains, even if chemical weapons laboratories do not.

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort @maxbearak 32. According to @StateDeptCT, UN ISIL & AQ Sanctions Committee added 11 ppl to sanctions list last year. But UN report includes ref to many terrorists who are not listed @UNSC @UN_CTED @USUN

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort @maxbearak @StateDeptCT @unsc @USUN 33. Terrorists noted in report but not designated include Samir Hijazi, Khalid Mustafa al-Aruri, Sami al-Aridi, Bilal Khrisat, Faraj Ahmad Nana’a, Bilal Ali Wafi, Abu Abdullah al-Darnawi, Abu Moaz al-Tikriti, Bah Ag Moussa, Abou Oussama al-Jazairi, Hamza al-Jazairi ....

@UN @UN_CTED @dbyman @azelin @WashInstitute @hoffman_bruce @FabriceBalanche @LizSly @washingtonpost @katebauer @resolvenet @coalition @katecbauer @jolidort @maxbearak @StateDeptCT @unsc @USUN 34. ..... Abu Musa’ab al-Barnawi, Abu Abdullah Ibn Umar al-Barnawi, Ubaydullo Muradoluogly, Alisher Tazhibaev, Sulaymanov, Asliddin Davlatov, Sayvaly Shafiev, Abu Omar Khorasani, Mawlawi Abdullah, and Hajan Sawadjaan