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It's been a long, painful year since the #Hamas massacre of Oct 7. Here's a look back at my writing this year, starting with a @ForeignAffairs article on Oct 11 on "The War Hamas Always Wanted"

@WashInstitute /1 washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… 2. Next was a look at "The New Middle East: Hamas Attack, Israel at War, and US Policy," together with @robsatloff @EhudYaariJLM #NeomiNeumann & @GhAlOmari @WashInstitutewashingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

Some Middle East-themed takeaways from @ODNIgov Haines' annual threat assessment testimony, a thread:armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/… 2. No comment on China in Mideast, but notes "CCP is increasing its criticism of perceived U.S. failures and hypocrisy, including the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and racial tensions in the United States"

Breaking: @STLebanon appeal chamber reverses acquittals & convicts Merhi & Oneissi, including on charge of conspiracy aimed at committing a terrorist act, ie #Hezbollah murder of #RafiqHariri

https://twitter.com/Levitt_Matt/status/1501990113118945280

2. The @STLebanon Appeals Chamber does, however, find that the Trial Chamber committed an error of fact by failing to find that Mr Badreddine was a #Hezbollah military commander in 2004 and 2005

Ep 5 of ‘Breaking Hezbollah’s Golden Rule’ dropped today. We start by discussing #Hezbollah’s shadow war with the West, foiled attacks in #Cyprus, a bus bombing in #Bulgaria, and LH’s shifting modus operandi
@WashInstitute
A thread ...
washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… 2. On Feb 12, 2008, Imad #Mughniyeh was killed in a joint @CIA -Mossad op near Damascus. A bomb was placed in his car’s spare tire. Fearing he would be next, #Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan #Nasrallah warned Israel to expect an “open war”

In this month’s cover of @CTCWP I look at the who/what/where/when/why/how of Iranian external assassination, surveillance, & abduction plots, based on a personal dataset. ctc.usma.edu/february-2022/

A thread 🧵👇 2. This study is based on a dataset that includes 98 cases of assassination, abduction, attack, & surveillance plots by the #Iran regime from Dec 1979–Dec 2021

Thread 🧵re SOF raid that took out ISIS leader Qurayshi:
1. Like previous administrations, Biden seeks to get out of 'endless wars' and pivot from Mideast to Asia. Adversaries get a vote, however, so CT efforts must continue. Biden: we will come after you. 2. CT efforts should be seen not in terms of victory or defeat, but rather as an ongoing effort— short of both war and peace—in which both lethal and nonlethal tools are employed to compete with adversaries and disrupt acts of terrorism washingtoninstitute.org/media/4359

1. ~20 yrs after 9/11, it's time 2 think thru what a rationalized & sustainable U.S. CT global posture should look like. We've built great CT tools over 20 yrs, but tools should not dictate strategy. Next week @WashInstitute publishes my CT policy review paper, lots 2 discuss 2. Biden admin interim guidance echoes broadly bipartisan desire 2 rationalize U.S. investment in CT that goes back at least two administrations including pledge not to engage in “forever wars” & to “right-size” U.S. military presence in Mideast whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

THREAD: French President Macron recently denounced #Hezbollah's attempts to pose as a legitimate political party while engaging in militant activity independent of the Lebanese state. Here I explore why it's time for Paris resent on Hezbollah washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… 2. Last month #Hezbollah threw a wrench in French efforts to stabilize the Lebanese political system following the tragic Aug 4 explosion in Beirut. Macron's response caught the group off guard & came on heels of new revelations re Hezbollah activities in Europe

Amb Nathan Sales @StateDeptCT tells @AJCGlobal about newly revealed cases of #Hezbollah stockpiling caches of ammonium nitrate in ice-packs across Europe.
These have been moved thru Belgium, to France, Greece, Italy, Spain & Switzerland--explosives 4 future plots in Europe 2. Amb Sales @StateDeptCT @AJCGlobal that ammonium nitrate ice pack caches also found &/or destroyed in France, Greece and Italy. Additional LH ammonium nitrate ice packs may still exist in Greece, Italy, and Spain

Thread.... My latest, "Breaking Hezbollah’s ‘Golden Rule’: An Inside Look at the Modus Operandi of #Hezbollah’s Islamic Jihad Organization," is now out @Perspectives_T @WashInstitute. Some highlights follow washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… 1. From 2012 to 2019, authorities in the US and Cyprus arrested 5 #Hezbollah IJO operatives. Law enforcement officials learned much about Hezbollah’s covert operations from these cases, including details being made public for the first time in this article.

Breaking: Huge if proven true... WELT reporting Iran's Qods Force shipped Ammonium Nitrate to #Hezbollah in Beirut in 2013-2014. Three shipments were reportedly sent via airport, sea port and overland, totaling 630-670 tons of ammonium nitrate. welt.de/politik/auslan… The #Hezbollah procurement agent who coordinated the shipment, according to WELT, was Mohamad Qasir. For full background on Qasir & Hezbollah's weapons procurement channels, see my @CTCWP piece here washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

1. On Aug 23, the day an Israeli teen was killed & her father & brother injured in a terror attack, The Jewish Chronicle published an apology to the UK charity Interpal which claimed defamation re Chronicle reporting noting the US accuses the group of ties to #Hamas 2. Interpal denies these charges, & is not banned in the UK where it operates legally. But Interpal’s dismissal of these charges does not make them any less significant. Let’s review just some of the evidence.

Recent @UN Security Council report @UN_CTED the current state of ISIL, Al-Qaeda, and associated individuals and entities. un.org/securitycounci… Grab a fresh cup of coffee and follow along as I highlight some key points that stood out to me...... @UN @UN_CTED 1. “ISIL, however, remains much stronger than AQ in terms of finances, media profile and current combat experience and terrorist expertise and remains the more immediate threat to global security.” There there's the death of Hamza bin Ladin. brookings.edu/blog/order-fro… @dbyman

Thread on Iranian diplomats playing hands-on roles in acts of terrorism & assassination plots across Europe, from my new @CTCWP Sentinel piece on "Iran's Deadly Diplomats" @WashInstitute 👇

https://twitter.com/Levitt_Matt/status/1027298582913867776

2. According to German prosecutors, Assadollha Assadi was no run-of-the-mill diplomat but an Iranian intelligence officer operating under diplomatic cover.

Thread --> New Palestinian and Egyptian Designations Highlight Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood - @WashInstitute washin.st/2ErqC6X 2. Accused of destabilizing activities such as undermining the peace process, targeting high-level Egyptian officials, and smuggling weapons into the Gaza Strip, the designees include Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Harakat al-Sabirin, Liwa al-Thawra, and Harakat Sawad Misr