So the process on the NHS pay round should be this...

This 1% is the Government’s submission into the Pay Review Body process - others have made other submissions from £2k bonus to 15%...

Pay Review Body will report back in May.

Govt will then choose whether to accept or not
Government’s decision will rest on several factors - the 1% number is a reference to what is deemed affordable within current NHS budgets. Other factors play into the decision, chiefly recruitment and retention..
- this is the full NHSPRB Govt evidence:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Govt also published Doctors and dentists evidence...

There is lots of very interesting information on trends particularly on the increasing reliance of NHS on non UK staff, and eg levels of sickness absence during pandemic:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Eg... noticeable fall in number of EU nurses working in NHS since referendum - down about 2,500 since June 2016 - Govt attributes “most likely” to introduction of more rigorous language test by NMC, since partially reversed:
Support and scientific EU staff up though:
Number of doctors (health/ community health services) from abroad but outside of the EU has almost trebled since 2015-16... EU doctors here down about 15%:
That chart is above refers to new doctors entering the health service the below shows the trend in actual workforce - with rapid growth in rest of the world doctors, though EU and home grown workforce also up:

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More from @faisalislam

4 Mar
How things change...

And while corporation tax was only major tax lever left after manifesto commitments, it is striking how argument made at successive elections completely turned on its head... ie continuing this chart with ydays OBR numbers takes it to 25% and £82bn from 2024 Image
...such commitments were not made ahead of the 2019 election, that contained the cancellation of the further planned cut from 19p to 17p...

Will be interesting to see if future manifestos preemptively preclude main tax rate rises, even in clear emergencies like a global pandemic
IFS warning that uncertainties around pandemic, the squeeze on spending, the speed of bounce back points to possible further tax rises - if Chancellors current balance budget principle to be met. where do they come from, if needed?
Read 9 tweets
3 Mar
Budget...
Chancellor Sunak: “What was originally thought to be a temporary disruption to our way of life has fundamentally altered it” - temporary disruption is a quote from the last Budget
Sunak: “It’s going to take this country – and the whole world – a long time to recover from this extraordinary economic situation. But we will recover.”
Chancellor “todays forecasts show our response to Coronavirus is working”....

OBR is predicting a swifter and more sustained recovery - returns to pre pandemic level middle of next year, Sox months earlier than expected...
Read 23 tweets
26 Feb
Understand Chancellor & PM met yesterday on subject of Freeports ahead of Budget

Applicants expecting announcement at next week’s Budget, after relatively quick process.

Locations to get tax breaks on biz rates, capital allowances, NI, as well as operating before customs border
Around two to three dozen applicants from ports (sea and air) were received by the deadline this month. Govt want to get them going this year.

Not mainly a Brexit thing (indeed one of the most famous examples is the art/ wine storehouse in Luxembourg, which HMT don’t want to do)
The other issue is displacement - will these facilities merely shift production within the country from non free ports. As Tees Mayor Houchen just told Nick, they have to be concentrated in specific product areas.

This issue will weigh heavily tho , particularly re rejected bids
Read 4 tweets
25 Feb
Following the confirmation hearing of the US Trade Rep Katherine Tai ... no mention of doing new trade deals in her opening statement: ustr.gov/about-us/polic…
Asked about whether US would get into TPP Tai did not make it sound a priority saying that 2021 is not 2015/16
NEW Biden’s US Trade Rep designate Tai says she would want to “review” US and UK trade talks in light of UKs deals with EU and new post pandemic economic situation... suggests the original objectives might be reviewed. Doesn’t sound quick.
Read 4 tweets
25 Feb
New numbers on furlough released - in January up to 4.7m from 4m. Also though evidence of a rather different second wave lockdown than last April... (peak 9m) gov.uk/government/sta…
This shows the pattern of which workers by sector are on furlough now and aren’t now versus were in first lockdown...

Significant increase in past month in retail/ wholesale, but half levels of last April... construction, manufacturing use of furlough have not gone up in Jan
On the link at the top there are some v interesting breakdowns by region, company size, gender (more women furloughed) and age... but this is very interesting - the 1m rise in furlough this year, 2nd lockdown has been in full furlough, not part time/ flexible furlough:
Read 5 tweets
19 Feb
G7 conference call chaired by PM - with President Biden and new Italian PM Mario Draghi - all looks rather different to last one... as usual EU there repped by VDL and Michel, in addition to the “7”.
G7 leaders promise to “build back better for all” and commits to “levelling up our economies so that no geographic region or person, irrespective of gender or ethnicity, is left behind”.. and support Tokyo Olympics as a symbol of post Covid global unity

g7uk.org/joint-statemen…
Also G7 promises to:
-strengthen WHO, fund Covax $7.5bn
- explore global health treaty
-‘continue to support our economies to protect jobs/recovery’ (NB no mention of public finances)
-debt relief for pandemic afflicted poorer countries
-net zero by 2050
- digital tax by mid 2021
Read 4 tweets

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