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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
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5 Mar, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Greens on verge of becoming ruling party in one of Germany’s biggest & most important provinces?
2/
The Greens have ruled in coalition and have been a major force in BW for some years..but inching towards 40% is a new chapter this would make them the established “Volkspartei” in BW.

A view in the near future for other countries....?
3/
When I lived in BW in the 90s the greens were already strong but I never ever imagined they could get more votes than the CDU & SPD.....COMBINED.

This is incredible.
4/
I mean Baden Württemberg has more than 3 times the population of Wales.

Imagine if the Greens became not only the largest power in Wales but got more votes than the Conservatives & Labour parties combined..

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More from @nicktolhurst

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
6 Mar
There’s a lot of talk about Boris playing Northern Ireland for leverage but UK’s actions are actually aimed at the Irish Republic.

An attempt is being made to degrade Ireland’s position in the EU single market so that the rest of the EU will have to impose checks on Irish goods.
2/
The aim is to get the Irish govt in a weakened position that it will agree to one of the sub-optimal intra-Irish border solutions rather than be effectively forced out of the EU common trade area.
3/
This explains why the reaction from Irish govt was a step higher than previously.

It’s now no longer about Boris feeding some meat to unionists. It’s about ratcheting up the pressure on Ireland.

Not a coincidence this strategy timed exactly after Frost took over from Gove.
Read 6 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
4 Mar
+UPDATE+

The “Loyalist Council” of Northern Irish paramilitaries officially withdraws support for the Good Friday Agreement.

This marks the 1st time the paramilitary representatives have publicly withdrawn backing for the peace deal since it was agreed over 2 decades ago.
2/
It is understood that a communication sent to Boris Johnson has confirmed the “loyalist” paramilitaries will withdraw their backing for the Good Friday Agreement until the UK govt ditches or destroys the Northern Irish protocol agreed with the EU last year.
3/
This is a significant ratcheting up of pressure from “loyalists” and follows decision by DUP/loyalist groups to stop construction of all permanent customs infrastructure that could serve Northern Ireland’s trade with the rest of the UK - even tho this required by Brexit deal.
Read 7 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
2 Mar
Many remainers convinced Brexit a scheme dreamt of city financiers to make money.
Many Leave voters convinced City would ensure Brexit done in a sensible way.

The truth is the city doesn’t care about Brexit as the city isn’t connected to UK economy.

It can move if it needs to.
2/
The only way the city is connected to London is through the people it employs, the offices it rents & the services it consumes.

But these jobs don’t “need” to be here.
There’s no massive factory, mineral source or resource that stops it moving.
Basically many city jobs depend(ed) on:

1. Sound rich well run economy
2. Availability of skilled, English speaking workforce
3. Pre-Brexit in a regulatory area that can do this business
4. Inertia

London led on 1st two but EU nations have caught UK up.

(3) now destroying (4).
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
2 Mar
+UPDATE+

City institutions “have moved £1.3 Trillion worth of assets from UK to the EU since Brexit vote” with some transfers still ongoing.

Direct financial sector job transfers from London to the EU now approaching 10 000.

This figure does not include knock-on/supply jobs.
2/
One of the biggest transfers of assets is thought to be the US financial bank - JP Morgan Chase - which is still completing a transfer of almost £200 billion of assets from London to the EU.

These are estimated to be some of the largest transfers of assets in world history.
3/
Process began in 2016 - now total figures confirmations emerging.

Interesting is also country spread of the relocation.

While Amsterdam has done well with share trading relocation - Frankfurt, Dublin & Lux have benefitted most from assets transfer.

theguardian.com/business/2021/…
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
26 Feb
Following are all true:

1. There's zero chance of rejoin inside at least 6 years
2. EEA membership/alignment is clearly in UKs interest
3. Referendum needed before rejoin possible
4. No party will risk fighting an election with referedum as policy any time soon

Which leaves....
And then next..

5. EU will insist on align/"trusted relationship" prior to rejoin
6. Many Remain voters dont want 2nd referendum now
7. Referendum not needed for steps before rejoin
8. Culture war on align is less obvious than on rejoin which shows Brexit publicly as "a failure"
3/
Once you get these 8 points..it becomes clear what the route should...indeed, can only be.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
25 Feb
British supermarkets & producers increasingly “de-Europeanising” foods for post-Brexit UK.

So for example “Petits Pois” (a term much of the world uses regardless of where they come from) has now become “British fancy peas” with Union flag.
2/
Remember “Brussel Sprouts”?

Those were the bad old days..now we have freedom loving, flag waving “British Sprouts”.
3/
And don’t worry if you’re not just anti European...but also “Celt-sceptical”..

...you can now enjoy a Haggis in the safety of your home without a worry or even a thought about Scotland with the “Great British Haggis”..
Read 5 tweets

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