There’s a lot of talk about Boris playing Northern Ireland for leverage but UK’s actions are actually aimed at the Irish Republic.
An attempt is being made to degrade Ireland’s position in the EU single market so that the rest of the EU will have to impose checks on Irish goods.
An attempt is being made to degrade Ireland’s position in the EU single market so that the rest of the EU will have to impose checks on Irish goods.
2/
The aim is to get the Irish govt in a weakened position that it will agree to one of the sub-optimal intra-Irish border solutions rather than be effectively forced out of the EU common trade area.
The aim is to get the Irish govt in a weakened position that it will agree to one of the sub-optimal intra-Irish border solutions rather than be effectively forced out of the EU common trade area.
3/
This explains why the reaction from Irish govt was a step higher than previously.
It’s now no longer about Boris feeding some meat to unionists. It’s about ratcheting up the pressure on Ireland.
Not a coincidence this strategy timed exactly after Frost took over from Gove.
This explains why the reaction from Irish govt was a step higher than previously.
It’s now no longer about Boris feeding some meat to unionists. It’s about ratcheting up the pressure on Ireland.
Not a coincidence this strategy timed exactly after Frost took over from Gove.
4/
I don’t think the UK govt believes it can completely succeed with this strategy - but I guess what it does think is that it can impose enough pressure to get a compromise in its interests.
I don’t think the UK govt believes it can completely succeed with this strategy - but I guess what it does think is that it can impose enough pressure to get a compromise in its interests.
5/
This strategy is completely consistent with UK govt actions over last 18 months.
1. Refuse to stick to agreement
2. Ramp up the pressure
3. Eventually concede defeat but in the defeat attempt to negotiate a withdrawal compromise better than the original position
This strategy is completely consistent with UK govt actions over last 18 months.
1. Refuse to stick to agreement
2. Ramp up the pressure
3. Eventually concede defeat but in the defeat attempt to negotiate a withdrawal compromise better than the original position
6/
Matthew Parris has an interesting article on this today.
The UK govt likely believes it has little downside in pushing the EU - and Ireland in particular - on these issues.
And if Parris (& my) reading of this is correct then this will just keep on happening.
Matthew Parris has an interesting article on this today.
The UK govt likely believes it has little downside in pushing the EU - and Ireland in particular - on these issues.
And if Parris (& my) reading of this is correct then this will just keep on happening.
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