Thread by @georgemagnus1

Short version, with comment, of Li Keqiang's Government Work Report today at China's National People's Congress. More details on 14th FYP by early next week. Try this for starters. 1/ 11

Leaving aside backward looking parts of the GWR, with emphasis on the positive economic consequences of containing the pandemic and on eradication of poverty, the forward-looking parts were rather sober overall. 2/11

Contrary to expectations, the govt did announce a growth target of 'about 6 per cent', but in 2021, hitting this target will be like falling off a log in a fast flowing river. Li said there will be annual targets for economic growth. Hmmm 3/11

Setting targets suggests the govt's commitment to sustaining the current growth and development model is proving hard to dilute. Not good. While govt will wind down fiscal, monetary and credit stimulus, even tighten in2021, the addition to stimulus prob still there 4/ 11

Once pandemic pop is done, govt could well revert to using credit and infrastructure again to sustain higher economic growth than economy might be capable of delivering. file under 'Review all this in the autumn'. 5/11

Commitments to raise spending on R&D, defence, and science and technology are as expected. References to the 3 year action plan to reform SOEs and extend hukou more rapidly lack specifics at this stage, and we have heard all this before 6/ 11

The targets to lower energy consumption per unit of output and CO2 emissions are welcome, and will be interesting to monitor. Most other targets and tasks were flagged and are remarkable more as goals than policies. Again, we will have to wait for details as/ when.or if. 7/ 11

Vague commitments to ensure an 'appropriate' birth rate, and implement a 'phased increase' in the statutory retirement age are tantalising and long overdue gestures to address rapid ageing, but what on earth does the former mean. Latter is getting urgent. 8/11 .

All in all, this GWR fits the script of 'taking stock' after a testing and turbulent 2020 because of Covid, and the tasks for 2021 are now a pay down on the new Five Year Plan, and the target 2035 ambition to become a modern socialist economy. 9/ 11

People will want to learn much more about a few things eg Dual Circulation Strategy & what that means in practice; how the $1.4 trn 5 yr science/tech programme is going to rolled out and funded; whether lower regs and charges for firms also come with bigger market access 10/11

Also note Li said that to ensure national security, economic security will require strategies to safeguard food supplies, energy, resources, and financial security. The whole security thing is going to define and etermine a lot in the next few years. 11/11 End