Thread on saving (mostly older peoples) lives v economy. Spoiler: rant because a lot of ppl incl on @BBCr4today misunderstand or misrepresent this. There is no choice. 1/n
Ppl, incl a Bristol Univ Prof in risk mgt, say economic slumps are injurious to health and we have the balance wrong. We should protect economy more and presumably be more tolerant of higher cv fatalities. 2/n
It’s true that slumps take a heavy toll on physical and mental health. Which is partly why we have well developed if not always adequately funded social sec and healthcare progs. But in today’s cv world, the deaths vs economy argument is a total red herring and wrong 3/n
The reason we are shuttering the economy is because otherwise, letting the virus run, our health system might collapse. High fatality rates not just for covid patients but for a wide array of non-covid patients too, young and old. At that point the economy would dump anyway 4/n
So don’t have any truck with this over 60s deaths vs economy argument, it’s false and irresponsible. Plus we are throwing the kitchen sink and more at the mid crisis. We do have coping mechanisms even though there’ll be a huge economic contraction. And there’s more 5/n
The covid crisis isn’t going to look like the GFC which left an 11 year aftershock we still haven’t gotten over. The virus spread will crest/reverse. A vaccine will emerge. Restrictions will ease even if reimposed sporadically. Health system capacity is going to get stronger. 6/n
So, beyond the immediate future weeks, our ability to cope and manage will improve. That means the balance between economic stop and go will change, incrementally maybe but there is, with patience and sound policy , a way out. 7/n
Not have we exhausted the scope for economic counter measures. The fiscal deficit will rise - at interest rates that are basement level. It’s not going to choke us. And monetary policy, expansive as it is, can do even more if needs be. 8/n
Gov can substitute direct prog financing, aka MNT, for at least some borrowing subject to conditions that will doubtless be set. Provided the lodestone is productive investment, we will be fine 9/n
So please folks, no more of this Covid19 deaths vs economic contraction nonsense. It’s not a choice and no one should be arguing it is. Rant ends 10/n
