Been pitching Red Flags in U.K. and at a private China and the world conference for invitees only/Chatham house rules conference out of town. Can’t say much but some impressions:
The pro-China lobby in the US has evaporated, and it’s on life support elsewhere. This is a huge thing. Think about the last 2-3 decades as comparison 2/n
Xi Jinping has committed 2 cardinal errors. Losing the support of US especially but also EU businesses, and misreading the fortitude of the WH on prosecuting this trade conflict. Major fails. Someone’s going to pay for this, and it’s a loooong way back for XJP 3/n
Trump may be the equiv of a child with a weapon, but he wants a win, plain and simple. He’s not going to give up barely articulated objectives re China industrial policy. So whatever happens in Buenos Aires, the existential causes of trade conflict will be alive and well 4/n
Though there are ppl who are happy to articulate China’s econ policies, trade and BRI positioning as all on plan with caveats and issues, and as extrapolations of the past, I think more/more ppl willing to concede thT Xi’s China is NOT the China we cut spurs and knew. 5/n
This China is Xi’s China and functions according to a governance system wihich is a throwback to decades ago before Deng. Yet china is more modern/complex and has econ and commercial aspirations thAt are of the future. = major contradiction 6/n
My own view is this contradiction is v serious. Also, as it happens importantly , supported by Chinese intellectuals whose work barely survives long enough to be translated and taken down. 7/n
I think much coming to a head next year or two. Starting w/ the policy incoherence that permeates current economic slowdown and policy. Banks, local gov, firms, all getting mixed msgs to be cautious but spend more:take more risk. In Britain we call this ‘cakeism’ nowadays 8/n
Next up Buenos Aires, Econ Work Conference and 4th Plenum for signals about trade and policy.... but 2019 already promising to be ‘interesting’
