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On HK protest movement against the E law, lots of thoughts swirling around. No question it’s been a huge boost for HKers, who must feel buoyed that if the govt or Beijing persist in erosion of civil liberties, they know what to do. Yet, this is ultimately toxic for the CCP 1/n
At same time, also no question that this is the biggest climb down Xi Jinping has made since coming to power. The all-powerful, truck no nonsense, leader of China has had to bow to street politics. This will not have made him happy or quiescent.2/n
Under the circumstances though, and with a G20 coming up in Osaka next week, he had no choice. Interesting though, that faced with international and domestic pushback, the gov has virtually eradicated Made in China 25 rhetoric, moderated its Belt and Road strategy (pro tem) 3/n
So, there is a sensitivity and brittleness there that isn’t always apparent. However, it is unacceptable to the CCP that HKers might restrict or block the national security legislation in HK that they deem essential. 4/n
Beijing also approved, even if it was Carrie Lam’s project, the idea of drawing the renegade Taiwan into its orbit of influence via the Extradition Law. Taiwan goes to polls in January, and many ppl will look to HK resistance as encouragement for their independence. 5/n
So thats another reason for ‘defeat’ here to sit v uncomfortably in Zhongnanhai. One fears that after a hiatus, Beijing will eventually do whatever it deems necessary to bring HK to heel again, accelerating the whitewash of the one country two systems pretence 6/n
We can only guess how this all evolves and ends.... but if you bought the line that Xi’s China thinks 100 steps ahead, has strategic vision and autocracy works in perpetuity, I can sell you a brand new Porsche for £500. Ends
