For the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, Denmark now have the fewest cases of the Nordic countries below
1/x
Denmark is testing the most
2/x
and Denmark have the lowest test positive percentage, meaning DK is most likely identifying more cases, than the other countries
Example:
if you test 50.000 and find 308 cases
if you instead tested 100.000 you would find 500 cases
and 150.000 test would find 664 cases
3/x
This is explained in more details here.
Basically, you do not adjust in a 1:1 fashion, but use the test ratio difference 100.000/50.000=2 and apply the power of 0.7 to the ratio.
2^0.7=1.62
1.5^0.7=1.32
4/x
ssi.dk/-/media/ssi-fi…
More discussions in the subject here, in respect to the use of ^0.7
5/x
Finland is responding and will do a three week lockdown
6/x
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
New restrictions discussed in Norway also
7/x
politiken.dk/udland/art8126…
Sweden also acknowledged a third wave
Recommended that crowds at shops be limited to 500 ppl, adding to a string of new restrictions in recent week, such as limited opening hours for bars, cafes & restaurants and stricter rules for wearing face masks
8/x
reuters.com/article/health…
Denmark: Gradual lifting of restrictions
9/x
bbc.com/news/explainer…
Ireland: Highest level of restrictions to continue
Portugal: New lockdown under way
Belgium: Lockdown continues
Spain: Curfew and other measures to continue
Czech: Tighter lockdown
Germany: Lockdown extended, some schools open

10/x
France: New lockdown on the Riviera
Italy: Curfew from 22-5, travel between Italy's 20 regions is banned, & mask-wearing is mandatory in public, both indoors and outdoors, across the nation. High school students allowed to return
Netherlands: Some easing of lockdown measures
11/x
How will lockdown be lifted in England?
12/x
bbc.com/news/explainer…

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More from @MartinJuhl2

6 Mar
Det bliver ved med at komme rigtig gode nyheder ud omkring vaccinerne - det lover godt for fremtiden

Effekten der er observeret i de kliniske studier er nu blevet bekræftet efter udrulningen i mange lande. Især data fra Israel, England, Scotland og Danmark ser imponerende ud
1/x
Flere datapunkter tyder nu på at Astra-Zeneca/Oxford er ligeså god eller bedre end Pfizer/BioNTech og Moderna på flere parametre.
economist.com/graphic-detail…
2/x
I de kliniske studier blev der kun målt på (1) hvorvidt man så et fald i antal smittede med symptomer. Der lå effekten mellem 60-95%.
3/x
Read 12 tweets
29 Jan
A list of restrictions introduced in Sweden

-Restriction on restaurants (max 4)
-high schools closed
-Restrictions on shops
-Masks recommended in public transportation
-Border control to Denmark
-No alcohol after 8pm
-Restrictions on gatherings (max 8)

nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2020-12…
Read 5 tweets
28 Jan
Population Fatality Rate (PFR) comparison of COVID-19 vs seasonal influenza (Average flu season)

PFR is how many deaths out of the entire country population

Current Covid-19 deaths vs historic flu deaths
1/x Image
Population Fatality Rate (PFR) comparison of COVID-19 vs seasonal influenza (worst flu season in recent years)
2/x Image
The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28

bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…

R0 value of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated at 2.5

thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/…

Herd immunity threshold (HIT) = 1 - 1/R0

Flu HIT = 22%
SARS-CoV-2 HIT = 60%

3/x ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
26 Jan
Comparing the Covid-19 deaths to influenza deaths in Sweden

Sweden have had between 300-1100 flu deaths per year since 2015
1/x
Sweden now have 11,247 Covid-19 deaths and around 15% infected

Covid-19 is thus already 10x worse than the worst flu season in recent years (2017-18) and 37x worse than the mildest (2015-16)
Graph
@Marco_Piani

2/x
Sweden’s current Population Fatality Rate (PFR) for Covid-19 is >0.1%, while for influenza it has been 0.010-0.0029%
3/x

Other countries
Read 4 tweets
26 Jan
Compilation on recent assessments from various sources using different models to provide an early estimates on relative and current reproductive number & transmissibility of the new B.1.1.7 Variant of Concern
1/x
@Peter_R_Hansen B.1.1.7 relative reproductive number ≈ 1.43 times larger. (generation time 4.7) thus 43% more infectious

Estimation for 1 day = 1.08 [CI 1.07-1.09] (8% pr day)

Estimation for 7 days 1.71
2/x
@SSI_dk @henrik_ullum
Cluster B.1.1.7 is clearly more contagious:
Increased relative reproductive number
SSI 1.2-1.5
3/x
Read 12 tweets
26 Jan
New Danish study out comparing quick tests to PCR tests

Better late than never, but really wished this had been done earlier (back in October 2020)

➡️12th October


➡️17th October


➡️5th November
The overall sensitivity and specificity of the antigen test were 69.7% and 99.5%, the positive and negative predictive values were 87.0% and 98.5%. Ct values were significantly higher among individuals with false negative antigen tests compared to true pos medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Results very much in line with what was shared here 5th November.
Antigen quick tests have the benefit of speed, which is very important contact tracing and isolation and can help keep society more open and well as and easy way to protect the elderly
Read 5 tweets

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