Det bliver ved med at komme rigtig gode nyheder ud omkring vaccinerne - det lover godt for fremtiden

Effekten der er observeret i de kliniske studier er nu blevet bekræftet efter udrulningen i mange lande. Især data fra Israel, England, Scotland og Danmark ser imponerende ud
1/x
Flere datapunkter tyder nu på at Astra-Zeneca/Oxford er ligeså god eller bedre end Pfizer/BioNTech og Moderna på flere parametre.
economist.com/graphic-detail…
2/x
I de kliniske studier blev der kun målt på (1) hvorvidt man så et fald i antal smittede med symptomer. Der lå effekten mellem 60-95%.
3/x
1: reduktion i symptomatisk smittede
2: reduktion i asymptomatisk smittede
3: reduktion i risiko for hospitalsindlæggelse
4: reduktion i risiko for død
5: reduktion i sandsynlighed for videre smitte
4/x
Preliminære data på de parametre
1: reduktion i symptomatisk smittede (50-96%)
2: reduktion i asymptomatisk smittede (80%)
3: reduktion i risiko for hospitalsindlæggelse (80-99%)
4: reduktion i risiko for død ( -99%)
5: reduktion i sandsynlighed for videre smitte ( -91%)
5/x
Selv mod de nye mutationer ser vaccinerne ud til at virke, især i forhold til at forhindre svær sygdom og indlæggelse og det gælder alle vaccinerne (Det hænger sammen med det T-celle respons de giver)
6/x
T-celler er en slags PacMan's som dræber inficerede celler.
En anden positiv information er at man stadig fandt et godt T-celle (PacMan) respons i personer der har overlevet en SARS infektion tilbage i 2003 17 år efter.
7/x
Alt i alt tyder det på at vi på den anden side af vaccinationerne til sommer vil være et kæmpe skridt nærmere en normal hverdag igen. Derudover er Danmark et af de lande i verden, hvor flest er klar på at blive vaccineret.
8/x
Referencer part 1
Reduktion in asymptomatisk smitte: authorea.com/users/332778/a…
Studier fra Israel tyder desuden på, at også virus mængden - viral load - er væsentligt reduceret hos vaccinerede medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Reduktion in videre smitte

9/x
Referencer part 2
Høj effektivitet af covid-19-vacciner givet på plejehjem og blandt social- og sundhedspersonale
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede…
T-celle respons mod mutationer biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
10/x
Referencer part 3
Danmark ligger i top i forhold % af befolkningen der støtter op om vaccinationer link.springer.com/article/10.100…

pmj.bmj.com/content/97/114…

T cell response 17 years after SARS infection
nature.com/articles/s4158…
11/x

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More from @MartinJuhl2

6 Mar
For the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, Denmark now have the fewest cases of the Nordic countries below
1/x
Denmark is testing the most
2/x
and Denmark have the lowest test positive percentage, meaning DK is most likely identifying more cases, than the other countries
Example:
if you test 50.000 and find 308 cases
if you instead tested 100.000 you would find 500 cases
and 150.000 test would find 664 cases
3/x
Read 12 tweets
29 Jan
A list of restrictions introduced in Sweden

-Restriction on restaurants (max 4)
-high schools closed
-Restrictions on shops
-Masks recommended in public transportation
-Border control to Denmark
-No alcohol after 8pm
-Restrictions on gatherings (max 8)

nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2020-12…
Read 5 tweets
28 Jan
Population Fatality Rate (PFR) comparison of COVID-19 vs seasonal influenza (Average flu season)

PFR is how many deaths out of the entire country population

Current Covid-19 deaths vs historic flu deaths
1/x Image
Population Fatality Rate (PFR) comparison of COVID-19 vs seasonal influenza (worst flu season in recent years)
2/x Image
The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28

bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…

R0 value of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated at 2.5

thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/…

Herd immunity threshold (HIT) = 1 - 1/R0

Flu HIT = 22%
SARS-CoV-2 HIT = 60%

3/x ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
26 Jan
Comparing the Covid-19 deaths to influenza deaths in Sweden

Sweden have had between 300-1100 flu deaths per year since 2015
1/x
Sweden now have 11,247 Covid-19 deaths and around 15% infected

Covid-19 is thus already 10x worse than the worst flu season in recent years (2017-18) and 37x worse than the mildest (2015-16)
Graph
@Marco_Piani

2/x
Sweden’s current Population Fatality Rate (PFR) for Covid-19 is >0.1%, while for influenza it has been 0.010-0.0029%
3/x

Other countries
Read 4 tweets
26 Jan
Compilation on recent assessments from various sources using different models to provide an early estimates on relative and current reproductive number & transmissibility of the new B.1.1.7 Variant of Concern
1/x
@Peter_R_Hansen B.1.1.7 relative reproductive number ≈ 1.43 times larger. (generation time 4.7) thus 43% more infectious

Estimation for 1 day = 1.08 [CI 1.07-1.09] (8% pr day)

Estimation for 7 days 1.71
2/x
@SSI_dk @henrik_ullum
Cluster B.1.1.7 is clearly more contagious:
Increased relative reproductive number
SSI 1.2-1.5
3/x
Read 12 tweets
26 Jan
New Danish study out comparing quick tests to PCR tests

Better late than never, but really wished this had been done earlier (back in October 2020)

➡️12th October


➡️17th October


➡️5th November
The overall sensitivity and specificity of the antigen test were 69.7% and 99.5%, the positive and negative predictive values were 87.0% and 98.5%. Ct values were significantly higher among individuals with false negative antigen tests compared to true pos medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Results very much in line with what was shared here 5th November.
Antigen quick tests have the benefit of speed, which is very important contact tracing and isolation and can help keep society more open and well as and easy way to protect the elderly
Read 5 tweets

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