The two most important things to remember about the C19 response.

1) It's the single largest social policy blunder ever in Canadian history.

2) It didn't have to be this way.

Lets break it down.

1/
What do we say about an unprepared public health community. They:

1) Badly miscalculated the threat.

2) Implemented draconian policy wildly disproportionate to the threat.

3) Had no ability to adjust.

4) Had no exit strategy other than a high risk vaccine ploy.

2/
It's been a slow motion disaster, with policy failure and weak political leadership driving it forward. Its hard not to get angry at the blundering mess public health and gov't have wrought upon a prosperous nation. The word "ineptitude" seems rather fitting.

3/
The disaster is all around us, some visible but most not. It will take decades to fix and Canadians are about to get a whole lot poorer. Our governmental structures are frozen shut. The illusion of gov't being a positive agent of change has been shattered.

4/
The blame lies that the top, with our prime minister, provincial premieres and gaggle of uninspiring public health professionals. And let us not forget the academic community who viewed C19 as a lifetime opportunity to indulge in fantasy thinking.

5/
In many ways, C19 should be viewed as a technocratic failure enabled by misplaced faith in "Experts". It was hard to avoid the endless parade of scientific panels, professional organizations and highly qualified personnel. The retort being there was no other option.

6/
That would be wrong and there were certainly other viable options. Our provincial/federal gov't could have followed their own pre-written pandemic plans and engaged their emergency management organizations. They really do exist and they were completely ignored.

7/
This brings me to David Redman, Alberta's former emergency planning chief. He's making the rounds, talking to local groups, informing the public how emergency planning should work. I have attached video clip and it's well worth the time.



8/
It's a refreshing change to see organized thoughts and a clear decision tree. He makes many excellent points, a few of which I will highlight, the most important being communication, local community support, and real world experience.

9/
An emergency plan is developed when an event has broader societal implications. It basically involves engaging three sets of stakeholders.

1) Content specialists
2) Organizational/ Logistical Enablers
3) Community leaders/organizations

10/
Contents specialists include but aren't limited to MOHs. A public emergency is more than public health. Seems rather obvious but here we are. Organizational enablers write and implement an emergency plan. The community brings real world experience to the planning process.

11/
Mr. Redman constantly stresses the importance of communication, transparency and community engagement. He doesn't mince words when describing the current C19 response as disjointed and chaotic.

12/
He saves special ire for the LTCs which were ignored despite being the #1 target of a respiratory virus. He provides real world examples of how you could have minimized death and it doesn't involve crippling the ability of society to function.

13/
He scorns the public health community's campaign of fear and the targeting of children for manipulation. His anger levels notably rises with the idea of grandchildren being told they could kill their grandparents. He dismantles this intellectually lazy argument.

14/
Mr. Redman's standard approach contains many of the elements one finds in the Great Barington Declaration. Perhaps those that believe in the general suppression strategy would find fault so lets propose a positive solution.

15/
A debate between the Davids. David Redman defender of community oriented responses vs David Fisman theoretical modeler and defender of general suppression. Certainly a worthy educational effort and one that could lift Canada out of this mess.

End

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More from @DonaldWelsh16

2 Mar
These editorial sentiments are well meaning but lets be clear. The C19 response has revealed the dark art of public health as destructive and incompatible with 21st century life. Much to criticize especially its use of behavioral psychology....1/

torontosun.com/opinion/editor…
Canada's C19 response started with two blundering mistakes. 1) wildly inaccurate claims of a viral threat; and 2) vaccines were the only way out. Both were disturbingly naive, but moving forward it locked Canada into a dangerous narrative....2/
That narrative involves the use of behavioral psychology to raise general anxiety and to reinforce conformity of thought and action. These dangerous weapons pull apart the underpinnings of society and shattered the psychological grounding of too many Canadians....3/
Read 9 tweets
1 Mar
Provocative and articulate thoughts from our small business community asking Canadians "Where are your values?" Indeed, values, economy, family and health all intersect within the C19 response. Have we struck a balance? 1/
The answer is a resounding "no". A walk through a shattered urban landscape and twitter discussions of force isolation and anal swabbing of children tells you this train left the tracks a very long time ago. Who is responsible? 2/
Let start with our ever bewildering public health community. A cascade of poor decisions fueled by an incorrect viral assessment, an amoral value system, stunning hubris and ideas that should never see the light of day. A terrible combination. 3/
Read 10 tweets
27 Feb
This british article highlights the strong push to put a spot light on how death was attributed to C19. Undoubtedly, one of the most serious failures of the current response. A deeper look reveals other interesting nuggets. 1/

mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/g…
One, MPs including those in gov't are pushing this forward. Second, they accept that significant errors were made by default. Third, a procedural issue was raised as to whether this is a stand alone issue or whether it should be rolled into a public inquiry. 2/
These are welcome statements, with remarkable candid, something we haven't seen in a very long time. The stars are aligning for a public inquiry and perhaps more. The public mood is moving swiftly towards more serious proceedings for those in position of authority. 3/
Read 4 tweets
26 Feb
Undoubtably, one the the very best discussions I've seens on C19. Two analytical thinkers (Nick Hudson and Kelly Brown) carefully and methodically destroy the broad lockdown narrative. There are a few take away messages. 1/

One, there was a near complete lack of serious analytical analysis. Two, public health is flying blind and lacks the neccessary skill sets to guide society through the mess. Three, vested interests play an ever increasing role in shaping the C19 narrative for financial gain. 2/
The last is interesting in the Canadian context, with respect to the news media. Both the CBC and the Toronto Star have been hemorrhaging eye balls and revenues for years until C19 magically reversed their fortunes. Coincidence? 3/
Read 5 tweets
24 Feb
For me, one of the few bright spots of the C19 response has been the number of clever people who have reached out. Of particular note have been civil servants, business leaders, financial analysts and students. 1/
Believe it or not, many in the civil service are just as frustrated as you are. They have kept me focused and calibrated. Just when you think its all a conspiracy, they ride to the rescue and remind me, gov't really is this dumb. The examples are numerous. 2/
Business leaders kept me humble, reminding me of my privilege in academia. Not one missed paycheck while others struggle to keep businesses afloat and fight depression. When this is done, academia and our public health community should open their eyes and beg for forgiveness. 3/
Read 5 tweets
20 Feb
I do like to keep people abreast of the C19 origin story. Many unanswered questions but two things are clear. The origin time has moved back to atleast mid Sept. 2019-early Oct. A large portion of initial patients can't be linked to the Wuhan market. 1/

wsj.com/articles/covid…
Still lots to learn but one of particular note is whether other regions of Oceania were hit before we actively monitored the virus. What fragments of evidence we do have suggests yes. Lets dig a bit more. 2/
Here is data from Australia showing an unprecedented spike in flu-like illness in mid 2019. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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