Thread by @DonaldWelsh16

I do like to keep people abreast of the C19 origin story. Many unanswered questions but two things are clear. The origin time has moved back to atleast mid Sept. 2019-early Oct. A large portion of initial patients can't be linked to the Wuhan market. 1/

wsj.com/articles/covid…

Still lots to learn but one of particular note is whether other regions of Oceania were hit before we actively monitored the virus. What fragments of evidence we do have suggests yes. Lets dig a bit more. 2/

Here is data from Australia showing an unprecedented spike in flu-like illness in mid 2019. 3/

Here is data from Japan pointing to unusually high flu-like cases in late August-early Sept 2019. 4/

And here is a final look at flu-like incidences in China. Plenty of unusual activity in 2019. 5/

So when did it hit Canada? Well we started measuring C19 in March 2020 but other Coronoviruses were unusually absent in Ontario from December 2019 onward. A new virus appears to be out competing the old. An idea we currently use to explain flu disappearance. Strange? 6/

Plenty of antidotal evidence of an unusual flu-like illness circulating in December 2019. As such, I suspect C19 hit Canada and Ontario in December 2019 before the public health response in late March 2020. So why the death spike in late April. An idea for another time. End.