hi - will be posting thread on how long immunity should last to vaccine later today & then off twitter x 3 days due to huge HIV meeting! But wanted to make one plea to #covid19 experts. It behooves us to look at vaccine clinical trial data carefully and memorize every detail. BUT
let's incorporate data from real-world roll-out that is coming in droves when we discuss the vaccines on 2 points: 1) Transmission: Already tweeted all those papers/analyses from real-world (NEJM, Lancet no slouches!) that asymptomatic infection reduced after vaccines.
2) Real-world data since trials has shown repeatedly that severe disease/deaths plummeting in populations who are vaccinated. So, if one is concerned about sample sizes in the clinical trials for a secondary outcome, incorporate that data!
...from millions already vaccinated & rates of severe disease in those populations (in U.S., you can cite data I retweeted from brilliant @PaulSaxMD yest). Never in history: real-world data so close to clinical trial data! Means statisticians must look at both; will apply to J&J.
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