Thread by @TaylorOgan

Tesla FSD Thread:

Let's dissect Tesla's Full Self-Driving, because I haven't seen anyone really get to the meat of it.

There has been a lot of confusion re: FSD/robotaxis, especially recently with the emails between Tesla and @CA_DMV that were obtained through a FOIA request.

2/ This may surprise you, but from the very beginning (2016), Tesla defined of what exactly it intended FSD to one-day be capable:

This is from Tesla's website in 2016, when it began offering Full Self-Driving Capability.

3/ Five years later, the features have been officially named, but the functions of "Full Self-Driving" have never changed. This is what Tesla's website says today.

4/
"park seek mode" + "summons it back to you"

is now called

"Autopark" + "Summon" + "Smart Summon"

5/
"handle densely packed freeways"

is now called

"Navigate on Autopilot" + "Auto Lane Change"

6/
"manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs"

is now called

"Traffic and Stop Sign Control"

player.vimeo.com/video/41238797…

7/
"navigate urban streets"

is now called

"Autosteer on City Streets", which is what everyone is now referring to as "FSD Beta".

8/ Tesla's "Full Self-Driving" will be what Tesla and @elonmusk refer to as "feature complete" when customers who paid for the "Full Self-Driving Capability" option (currently a $10,000 add-on) are sent Autosteer on City Streets (AKA "City Streets") OTA.

9/ This is important, because when Tesla delivers "feature complete" FSD, it can recognize all remaining deferred FSD revenue, which is a massive cash pile.

Recognizing deferred FSD revenue is not and never was dependent on the level of autonomy "FSD" achieves.

10/ Based on the videos from FSD Beta testers, it looks like Elon Musk and Tesla will soon be able to declare Full Self-Driving a victory. "City Streets" is the last feature required for FSD, as has always been stated by Tesla.

11/ The FSD Beta testers' videos look exactly like the videos Tesla first released of what FSD is capable, starting in 2016.

This is also what $TSLA analysts experienced at Tesla Autonomy Day in 2019.

vimeo.com/188105076

12/ What Tesla has achieved is undoubtedly impressive, and is why people, such as I, paid up to $10,000 for FSD.

Tesla has made the driving experience more fun, relaxing, and safe, as long as the driver is paying attention and ready to take over.

13/ This is a great Level 2 ADAS system.

What this is not, is Level 3.

...or Level 4

...or Level 5

So, "robotaxi" it is not.

14/ This is where the recently released emails come in. The emails between Tesla and @CA_DMV confirm that FSD is close to feature complete; the last piece of the FSD suite, City Streets, will remain "...SAE Level 2, advanced driver-assistance," in its "final release," says Tesla.

15/ The most recent email obtained that Tesla sent CA DMV on Dec 28, 2020 further confirms the full extent of "FSD Capability".
✅Navigate on Autopilot
✅Auto Lane Change
✅Autopark
✅Summon
✅Smart Summon
✅Traffic and Stop Sign Control
◻️ Autosteer on City Streets (Upcoming)

16/ Many robotaxi hopefuls are arguing that Tesla wouldn't want to be fully cooperative with regulators, or that this doesn't exclude the possibility of future features beyond Level 2 and that City Streets is just a "subset" of the FSD suite. Again, City Streets is the last step.

17/ Now, this doesn't mean Tesla won't come out with a future product that IS capable of Level 3-5 autonomy, which could enable a Tesla robotaxi network.

18/ I'm sure Tesla will; however, that will require new hardware, and much more time & data. FSD HW has inherent blind spots, the FSD computer is already running as hard as it can, etc.

(If you want to have the HW debate, please do so in my other threads specifically on AV HW.)

19/ The good news for $TSLA bulls is Tesla will be able to charge even more for new HW, as Tesla will have already delivered what it promised for FSD. My guess is Tesla will make models specifically designed to be robotaxis. And I think Tesla will be one of the big winners there.

20/ "But what about what Elon said at Autonomy Day?"

We know Elon didn't hit his goal of "one million robotaxis by the end of 2020."

I think that was just Elon going off script. Note the bottom left of the slide re: FSD HW. That's probably all he was supposed to say.

21/ "But what about all those robotaxi pricing numbers shown at Autonomy Day? Do you think Elon just made those up, or something?"

Well...

22/ "But never doubt Elon!"

To that, Elon says:

End/ Is Tesla close to delivering feature complete FSD? Yes.

Will Tesla deliver a Level 5 car this year? Absolutely not.

Can my car drop me off at work and generate income as a robotaxi? Not with FSD.

Will Tesla still be one of the winners in autonomy in 10 years? I'd say so.

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