Thread by @globalhlthtwit

Sorry George. Only just seen this. Thanks for the references to hypothesis papers. I don't disagree with Lavine et al’s model when she suggests "SARS-CoV-2 could join the ranks of mild, cold-causing endemic HCoVs in the long run”. Depends upon what is meant by the long run. (1)

https://twitter.com/mendel_random/status/1369401042811686926

Nor that vaccines could slow or accelerate this process depending upon the type of immunity they induce. I certainly agree with her that "These results reinforce the importance of behavioral containment during pandemic vaccine rollout”. (2)

I also agree with Veldhoen and Simas that the "question is whether the vaccines will be effective against reinfection or even eradicate SARS-CoV-2. Here, we suggest both answers are most probably no”. (3)

But later they suggest "most infected individuals will ultimately endure a largely asymptomatic or mild course of disease, although similarly to the other common cold HCoVs...new variants will unlikely differ sufficiently to escape established immunity.” (4)

So both hypothesis papers assume Sars-CoV2 will revert to a mild cold-like virus. This view is not shared by Aris Katzourakis author of the 'Prisoners of war' hypothesis about host adaptation and its constraints on virus evolution. rdcu.be/bcyDF (5)

His new thread: "The problem is, this model and sort of evolutionary process is not applicable to the kind of timescales that we are observing, but rather far longer time periods, with questionable relevant to implications for public health right now.”

https://twitter.com/ArisKatzourakis/status/1369225720682188800?s=20

(6)

Of course these are scientific areas outside my comfort zone. But your longer term issue of whether we should go for ‘annual’ vaccinations will depend absolutely on whether the virus becomes less virulent or not. (7)

For now can't we all agree we should suppressing this life-threatening infection down to the lowest possible level to prevent further deaths? And to isolate cases and their contacts as rapidly as possible as a key part of control? The current TTI system does not do that. (8)