Ben Chu Profile picture
10 Mar, 12 tweets, 3 min read
Why is the government killing off its ‘Industrial Strategy’ and why should we care?

A thread...🧵
On the face of it this is something of a puzzle.

Some have suggested this is about “neoliberal” or Thatcherite ideology at work – an aversion to government intervention in the market....2/
Yet this is not a government averse to intervening in the private sector economy, to put it mildly.

There’s the furlough of millions of jobs and billions in state-guaranteed loans...3/
But it’s not just pandemic crisis interventions.

There’s the £400m government stake in the bust satellite company OneWeb and the creation of Advanced Research & Invention Agency (ARIA)...4/
And the new UK Infrastructure Bank, sounds not dissimilar to the National Investment Bank proposed by Labour under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019.

So why kill off the Industrial Strategy "brand" when it looks like they’re rather keen on industrial strategy itself?...5/
And why do it when businesses, particularly in manufacturing, were solidly in favour of the strategy?

Read @MakeUKCampaigns boss Stephen Phipson's letter of dismay here to the business secretary...6/

makeuk.org/news-and-event…
Well, perhaps a clue lies in the fact that as well as dropping industrial strategy brand, they’re dropping the independent Industrial Strategy Council.

Do read a member of that council, @RSAMatthew , offering his take on that decision here...7/
But some sense something else too: an aversion not to intervention but to transparency and accountability.

The role of the Industrial Strategy Council was to provide “impartial and expert evaluation” of government’s progress in delivering the aims of its Industrial Strategy...8/
Is it that independent and expert SCRUTINY of interventions ministers disliked?

@Gilesyb of @instituteforgov, who worked on industrial strategy under May, now sees "a real risk of sheer ad hocery – a lot more One Webs and ARIAs and glitzy things but no uniting principle”...9/
And he fears that ministerial (or special advisor) whim and political considerations will take precedence over strategy and impartial analysis over interventions....10/
What discredited industrial strategy in the 1970s was that politicians’ short term political interests often took overrode hard-headed economic realism.

It took many decades for it to be rehabilitated in the UK...11/
The irony is that some think we're moving into a position where that happens all over again.

More here for @indypremium 👇

independent.co.uk/independentpre…

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More from @BenChu_

11 Mar
Is Test and Trace really the most wasteful public spending programme ever?

A thread…🧵
The @CommonsPAC report on the value for money and effectiveness of the £37bn Test and Trace programme is pretty damning.

& former top Treasury civil servant @nickmacpherson2 says it “wins the prize for the most wasteful and inept public spending programme of all time”...2/
But is this verdict justified?

Or have there, in fact, been more egregious squanderings of taxpayers’ money in the past?

What could possibly compete?

Well, here’s some contenders...3/
Read 16 tweets
8 Mar
When the Bank of England (one day) starts tightening monetary policy will it start by:

a) raising interest rates?

b) or reversing QE?...

A short thread🧵
Before Covid the Bank said it wouldn't start reversing QE until Bank rate was up to around 1.5%.

But Andrew Bailey wrote last June that it *could* start reversing QE first...2/
"In my opinion it may be better to consider adjusting the level of reserves first without waiting to raise interest rates on a sustained basis."...3/ bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 10 tweets
6 Mar
We’re told that inflation is “Rishi’s nightmare”.

But should it be ours too? #Budget2021

A thread…📈🧵1/
UK inflation is just 0.7%.

But the argument is that it could shoot up fast as the economy reopens – partly because people spend all their lockdown savings at once & partly because of spillovers from the US where Biden is pushing through a 9% of US GDP fiscal stimulus...2/
The Spectator piece suggest this “could crush Britain’s economic recovery and follow the pandemic with a financial crisis”.

And fast rising US and UK government bond yields are cited as evidence that traders are betting on resurgent inflation...3/

spectator.co.uk/article/rishis…
Read 15 tweets
4 Mar
*How* exactly is Rishi Sunak bringing austerity back to public services?

✂️

A thread…🧵1/
“There's absolutely no way in which anyone can say that's austerity, we're spending more money on public services than we were," Sunak said last November...2/

news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
But this week a chorus of public finance experts said austerity is indeed returning to the public realm.

So who’s right? And what’s going on?...3/
Read 16 tweets
4 Mar
If an industrial strategy council can't make it to three years, what chance of an industrial strategy lasting any longer?...
Note that the terms of reference document for the Industrial Strategy Council from 2018 refers to maximum six year terms for council members.

This clearly wasn't envisaged as a short-term project

industrialstrategycouncil.org/sites/default/…
....Here's the letter from Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng to Industrial Strategy Council chair, Andy Haldane, saying the council will end on 1 April 2021 (which some might note is All Fools day)...
Read 4 tweets
4 Mar
Richard Hughes of OBR seemed concerned about the share of GDP projected to be raised by higher corporation tax yesterday:

"Highest level since the Lawson boom in the late 1980s and one seldom sustained for very long in the post-war period"... obr.uk/download/econo…
...but this from IFS shows that raising 3% of GDP from corporation tax is by no means out of line with other OECD countries...
...as with looking at the total projected tax rate as a share of GDP (highest sustained level since the 2WW) looking at international context just as important, perhaps more, than UK history
Read 4 tweets

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