What’s happening with the EU’s (and UK’s) tariff-quota commitments in the WTO?

We now have one set of data to look at

REMINDERS:

1. This is part of the Brexit process in the WTO:
—new commitments for the UK
—amended EU commitments

Explanation: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/hap…

1/9
2. Tariff quotas = low/zero import duty inside the quotas + much higher duty outside

3. Pre-Bexit: a single set of EU28 tariff quotas (because of the customs union) legally binding in the WTO.

Post-Brexit: separate UK and EU27 quotas

Explanation: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/hap…

2/9
4. UK and EU want EU27+UK quotas = EU28 quotas

5. Other countries objected. Requires negotiation with both the UK and the EU (under GATT Art.28)

See: wto.org/english/news_e…

3/9
The EU now ways it has settled this with “Argentina, Australia, Norway, Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia and others”.

The EU and US have also announced agreement. But their press releases give no details.

US: ustr.gov/about-us/polic…

EU: ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

4/9
Note “preserves the original volumes”

So EU27+UK = original EU28 quotas.

US, Australia etc have given up demanding larger quotas to match original “market value”

The details are only public when approved by the EU Council. So far, only Thailand:

consilium.europa.eu/en/documents-p…

5/9
This is the agreement with Thailand: data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/S…

It shows:

1. Of the 31 tariff quotas available to Thailand (specifically, under “other”, or under “anyone”), 26 are as the EU originally proposed in July 2018.

6/9
2. The EU is shrinking two quotas substantially, ~60K tonnes for types of chicken meat.

Thailand would only "OK" if the UK had agreed to expand its quotas on those same products by the same amounts, shifting ~60K tonnes to the UK quotas

The UK has said nothing publicly

7/9
3. The EU is also enlarging 3 quotas on other types of poultry meat for Thailand.

Again the UK has said nothing

It would have to shrink its quotas on those products to “preserve the original volumes”—in theory it's not obliged to, except via understanding with the EU

8/9
CONCLUSION:

For the deals that have been agreed, the UK and EU have successfully kept their combined quota sizes unchanged.

Countries like Thailand have been successful in challenging some of the data the UK and EU used to split the quotas, or at least the results

9/9
CORRECTION: Thailand and the EU27 have agreed six (not five) quota changes out of 31. Four are enlarged and two shrink (substantially).

The UK quotas presumably match those in the opposite direction—by at least the same amount in the case of the smaller EU27 quotas.

1/2
This has now been updated to reflect the new information: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/hap…

2/2

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More from @CoppetainPU

7 Mar
Final results of today's 3 national votes in Switzerland:

1. Ban on face-coverings/burqas—for 1.43m v 1.36m = 51.2% v 48.8%

This vote needed a cantonal majority and got it: 18 v 5

swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…

1/4 Image
2. Electronic-ID by private companies overwhelmingly against—1.78m v 0.99m = 64.4% v 35.6%

Clean sweep of the cantons, although a majority not needed

swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…

2/4 Image
3. EFTA-Indonesia free trade agreement (objection because of palm oil) approved—1.41m v 1.32m = 51.6% v 48.4%

Cantons against are all French-speaking except Fribourg (bilingual) and Basel City. Cantonal majority not needed.

swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
7 Mar
First voting day of the year in Switzerland. Three national issues:

1. Face coverings aka Burqas
2. e-Identity by private sector
3. Free trade agreement with Indonesia

There may be other issues in the cantons or locally

swissinfo.ch/eng/what-s-on-…

1/4
1. Face coverings aka Burqas

Latest: too close to call

swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss--bur…

2/4
2. e-Identity by the private sector

Explanation: swissinfo.ch/eng/digital-id…

3/4
Read 5 tweets
7 Mar
As always, a useful post from @xAlan_Matthews

On two points I beg to differ. Alan is not alone in believing agreement is possible on “public stockholding” and special safeguard mechanism by the year-end ministerial conference. …

1/5
None other than new WTO head @NOIweala also said it in last week’s General Council: “On Agriculture, let us identify a few things we can deliver such as PSH [“public stockholding”], SSM [special safeguard mechanism] …”

Who am I go disagree?

wto.org/english/news_e…

2/5
1. “Stockholding” is really about buying at govt-subsidised prices, ie domestic support

India does it for rice and wheat, major Indian exports

Movement is unlikely until India recognises the possible impact on world markets. Otherwise, no deal

See: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2020/08/24/rhe…

3/5
Read 5 tweets
6 Mar
COVID-19 in Switzerland. Week to 06.03.2021—cases, R up slightly

Govt limited easing Mar 1

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—6504 & 164
● in hospital—275 & 5
● deaths—108 & 1.2

R(e): up—1.04
Vaccinations: 885K (301K 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/9 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations with datScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on Reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
And for the past fortnight, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. Pfizer supply delayed. Still waiting for approval: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/9 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
Vaccination data and virus variants

(Chart: past 28 days)

“Fully” = receiving second dose (where required)

Slow
Delivered: 1.2m=13.8% (from 976K) (up-tick). Administered: 884K=10.2% (from 651K). Fully: 300K (from 221K)

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

3/9 Screenshot of vaccinations data and graphics, past 28 daysScreenshot of list of variants and numbers identifiedScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant vari
Read 9 tweets
27 Feb
COVID-19 in Switzerland. Week to 27.02.2021—Creeping down except R

Limited easing Mar 1

Per 100K population, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—6419 & 160
● in hospital—271 & 5
● deaths—107 & 1.7

R(e): up—1.01
Vaccinations: 751K (221K 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/9 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on Reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
And for the past fortnight, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. Pfizer supply delayed. Still waiting for approval: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/9 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
Vaccination data and virus variants

(Here, set for past 28 days)

“Fully” = receiving second dose (where required)

Slow
Delivered: 976=10.8% (from 847) (some delays). Administered: 651K=8.7% (from 613). Fully: 221K

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

3/9 Screenshot of vaccinations data and graphics, past 28 daysScreenshot of list of variants and numbers identifiedScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant vari
Read 9 tweets
3 Feb
@DavidKleimann Hmm. Yes and no, I’d say.

YES: The text (latest December 2008) does include broad cuts for overall trade-distorting domestic support (OTDS), further disciplines if more distorting (AMS), and different treatment for developed v developing countries

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

1/6
@DavidKleimann And NO:

1. Fixed end date (2030)
2, Target for worldwide trade-distorting support entitlements: cut by half
3. How the variations are achieved within the target is left open

4. … continued …

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

2/6
@DavidKleimann NO continued:

4. Broad reference to “all forms” of trade/production-distorting support. So, no distinction between “AMS” entitlements (usually big, eg US, EU, Japan etc) and “de minimis” (“smaller”, for everyone, but now big for India, China).

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

3/6
Read 7 tweets

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