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Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
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7 Mar, 5 tweets, 2 min read
First voting day of the year in Switzerland. Three national issues:

1. Face coverings aka Burqas
2. e-Identity by private sector
3. Free trade agreement with Indonesia

There may be other issues in the cantons or locally

swissinfo.ch/eng/what-s-on-…

1/4
1. Face coverings aka Burqas

Latest: too close to call

swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss--bur…

2/4
2. e-Identity by the private sector

Explanation: swissinfo.ch/eng/digital-id…

3/4
3. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮 EFTA-Indonesia🇮🇩 FTA

The initiative: about palm oil

Switzerland: palm oil tariff quota of 12,500 tonnes, in-quota duty ⬇️ 20–40% (not zero), with sustainability certificates

FR: admin.ch/dam/gov/fr/Dok…

EFTA: efta.int/free-trade/Fre…

EN swissinfo.ch/eng/indonesia-…

4/4 Image
P.S. Details of latest opinion polling (24 Feb) Image

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Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
7 Mar
Final results of today's 3 national votes in Switzerland:

1. Ban on face-coverings/burqas—for 1.43m v 1.36m = 51.2% v 48.8%

This vote needed a cantonal majority and got it: 18 v 5

swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…

1/4 Image
2. Electronic-ID by private companies overwhelmingly against—1.78m v 0.99m = 64.4% v 35.6%

Clean sweep of the cantons, although a majority not needed

swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…

2/4 Image
3. EFTA-Indonesia free trade agreement (objection because of palm oil) approved—1.41m v 1.32m = 51.6% v 48.4%

Cantons against are all French-speaking except Fribourg (bilingual) and Basel City. Cantonal majority not needed.

swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
7 Mar
As always, a useful post from @xAlan_Matthews

On two points I beg to differ. Alan is not alone in believing agreement is possible on “public stockholding” and special safeguard mechanism by the year-end ministerial conference. …

1/5
None other than new WTO head @NOIweala also said it in last week’s General Council: “On Agriculture, let us identify a few things we can deliver such as PSH [“public stockholding”], SSM [special safeguard mechanism] …”

Who am I go disagree?

wto.org/english/news_e…

2/5
1. “Stockholding” is really about buying at govt-subsidised prices, ie domestic support

India does it for rice and wheat, major Indian exports

Movement is unlikely until India recognises the possible impact on world markets. Otherwise, no deal

See: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2020/08/24/rhe…

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
6 Mar
COVID-19 in Switzerland. Week to 06.03.2021—cases, R up slightly

Govt limited easing Mar 1

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—6504 & 164
● in hospital—275 & 5
● deaths—108 & 1.2

R(e): up—1.04
Vaccinations: 885K (301K 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/9 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations with datScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on Reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
And for the past fortnight, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. Pfizer supply delayed. Still waiting for approval: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/9 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
Vaccination data and virus variants

(Chart: past 28 days)

“Fully” = receiving second dose (where required)

Slow
Delivered: 1.2m=13.8% (from 976K) (up-tick). Administered: 884K=10.2% (from 651K). Fully: 300K (from 221K)

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

3/9 Screenshot of vaccinations data and graphics, past 28 daysScreenshot of list of variants and numbers identifiedScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant vari
Read 9 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
27 Feb
COVID-19 in Switzerland. Week to 27.02.2021—Creeping down except R

Limited easing Mar 1

Per 100K population, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—6419 & 160
● in hospital—271 & 5
● deaths—107 & 1.7

R(e): up—1.01
Vaccinations: 751K (221K 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/9 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on Reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
And for the past fortnight, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. Pfizer supply delayed. Still waiting for approval: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/9 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
Vaccination data and virus variants

(Here, set for past 28 days)

“Fully” = receiving second dose (where required)

Slow
Delivered: 976=10.8% (from 847) (some delays). Administered: 651K=8.7% (from 613). Fully: 221K

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

3/9 Screenshot of vaccinations data and graphics, past 28 daysScreenshot of list of variants and numbers identifiedScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant vari
Read 9 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
3 Feb
@DavidKleimann Hmm. Yes and no, I’d say.

YES: The text (latest December 2008) does include broad cuts for overall trade-distorting domestic support (OTDS), further disciplines if more distorting (AMS), and different treatment for developed v developing countries

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

1/6
@DavidKleimann And NO:

1. Fixed end date (2030)
2, Target for worldwide trade-distorting support entitlements: cut by half
3. How the variations are achieved within the target is left open

4. … continued …

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

2/6
@DavidKleimann NO continued:

4. Broad reference to “all forms” of trade/production-distorting support. So, no distinction between “AMS” entitlements (usually big, eg US, EU, Japan etc) and “de minimis” (“smaller”, for everyone, but now big for India, China).

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

3/6
Read 7 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
1 Feb
When I tweeted this #CPTPP thread ⬇️ , some people saw it as another UK govt fantasy, an impossibly complex task

That’s an interpretation. Not mine.

The UK-EU agreement and various UK continuity agreements show that deals can be struck quickly. Quality is another matter

1/13
My purpose was to paint a picture.

"A deal" tells us nothing. No two trade agreements are the same.

This ⬇️ is what the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (#CPTPP) looks like.

With some questions …



2/13
1. Would the UK joining #CPTPP be beneficial? Yes, but the benefits would be limited—distance does matter, even with services, and CPTPP is thin on services.

international.gc.ca/trade-commerce…

So would it be worth the effort?

It might make negotiating with some countries simpler …

3/13 ImageImageImage
Read 13 tweets

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