Thread by @FPLLens

#FPLMatchups #DGW28 Edition:
#GW29 Defenders + Little Prince Pick of the Week

Welcome back to FPL Matchups; my weekly think piece where I use my coaching lens to explore matchups in the #PL to gain some insight to navigate our FPL decisions.

#NetThatHaul
#FPLCommunity ♥️
#FPL

Life events, Der Klassiker & el Derbi Madrileño have prevented me from watching much of the #GW27 matches. I guess I must admit that the big red arrows I’ve been impaled with in FPL recently have also curbed my interest.

The result was interesting as it led to a quite stats heavy matchups article this week.
Among the most famous Buddhist paradoxes is “form is emptiness, emptiness is form.” I find this paradox best explained, however, by Taoism.

Taoism uses the analogy of a cup. It is the substance (form) of the cup that defines what it is, but it is the empty space inside that gives it purpose. I see stats and eye test in futbol in much the same way. The stats are what give us the language to define the experience,

the eye test is ineffable. A feeling we crudely try to translate.
This is the first part of an analysis of my favorite situations in GW29. I have selected 5 defenses, and their corresponding matchups for GW29 to put under the microscope.

BHA (liv, bur, avl, cry, wba, lei)
WHU (avl, ful, shu, tot, mci, lee)
ARS (wol, avl, lee, mci, lei, bur)
TOT (mba, mci, whu, bur, ful, cry)
FUL (eve, bur, shu, cry, tot, liv)
Drawing from inspiration from @FplMariner’s FDR, I have created a mini-FDR for specific stats for GW29.

The idea is to piece together, in a Voltron fashion, the different elements to determine the strengths and vulnerabilities w/ the matchups.
Let’s begin by looking at some direct stat comparisons, then proceed with an overview of each team. All data is from last 6 GWs.

In each graph we see the defense being examined on the left side, and their attacking opponent on the right side. The left column will be green, yellow, or red to indicate the expected difficulty for that stat in that matchup. The opponent column on the right is always in grey

& it indicates the opposing stat. The 6 stats used here relate to SIB, BC, xG, chances on left, middle, & right.
BHA have 4 green and 2 yellow.
WHU have 5 yellow and 1 red.
ARS have 4 red, 1 yellow, and 1 green.
TOT have 4 green and 2 yellow.
FUL have 3 red, 2 yellow, 1 green.

It would be a shortcut to thinking to accept a conclusion that the more greens, and the less reds, the better the matchup. Context is important here. For example, the last 6 opponents for both the defenses we are looking at and their opponents is relevant.

There are also important injury concerns to note, in addition to tactical considerations and form.
Interesting to note that BHA, WHU, & FUL are tied for second in the league for fewest BCC (7).

BHA - liv, bur, avl, cry, wba, lei
vs
NEW – cry, sou, che, mun, wol, wba

With impressive overall defensive stats, many eyes are turning to BHA defenders in their matchup against NEW in 29. It must be noted that they have had to fortune of playing against teams with weaker attacking threat, teams severely out of form, and teams ravaged by injury.

Even so, their defensive stats are impressive enough to rank them 2nd best for SIBC (29) and BCC (7).
BHA also have the luxury of facing a NEW team that ranks 18th in xG (5.68), and 19th in BC (6) so their defensive prospects certainly look good.

The one thing that raises an eyebrow about this matchup is that NEW have the 5th most SIB in the last 6 matches (47). This, however, isn’t particularly an area of weakness for BHA.
NEW have been able to find Joelinton as an outlet on the right lately,

but it is a long way from there to the box. The heatmaps show us how BHA limit their opponents to the periphery in terms of chances created and even the shots in the box have a relatively low xG.

The matchups story looks quite promising for BHA in 29,

but the chances through the middle could be an area of concern since BHA have conceded a reasonably generous 16 chances from there in their last 6 while NEW have created 13 chances there.

I like Veltman 4.3M. The Ajax man has Ajax DNA, and it shows with his approach to the box.

The attacking threat, combined with his price, & seemingly nailed now that Lamptey is ruled out for the season, make him a prime target from this back line. Dbling up may be a bit too much considering their fixtures after 29, but BHA defenders’ price makes a dbl up an option.

WHU - avl, ful, shu, tot, mci, lee
vs
ARS – wol, avl, lee, mci, lei, bur
WHU are also ranked 2nd for SIBC in the last 6 (7), but they have conceded 48 SIB in that time. WHU don’t have the stats some of the other teams here have, but they seem to be a “bend-but-don’t-break” def.

They can manage with the chances from the flanks, but the chances through the middle, combined with the xG stats are what would concern me for WHU defense.

ARS have the players, system, and form to exploit this weakness in the middle. WHU get littered with chances,

but very few are high xG chances. The orange mark for the chances created on Auba’s side is a little concerning given his form as well. ARS do not create too many BC as they sit 12th in that category over the last 6 with 10.

They have, however, generated a healthy 9.18 xG from that, which doesn’t bode well for WHU when they concede so many chances.

WHU also have the necessary pieces to exploit a similar vulnerability in ARS as ARS have a similar defensive vulnerability in the middle of the field.

ARS is the other team tied for 2nd over the last 6 with only 7 BCC. You can see this reflected in the heat map with very little green in dangerous areas. It is interesting that despite the few big chances, the xGC is quite high.

Antonio is a player that consistently generates a high xG and is largely responsible for WHU having the highest xG of the opponents here. ARS have the highest xGC of this group with 6.89, and, while that is not very high in general, it is notable here given WHU high xG with

the 2nd most BC in the last 6 (15).
With goals likely in this one, it is difficult to recommend their defenses unless they have attacking capability (Cresswell, Tierney) and it is for the long term.

TOT – wba, mci, whu, bur, ful, cry
vs
AVL – ars, bha, lei, lee, shu, wol
It must be said, Spurs do well with a kind run of fixtures. They can have a susceptibility on their right side, but Grealish is not yet healthy to exploit it. This matchup really comes down to Grealish.

If he is healthy, then it suddenly becomes tricky for TOT because of the matchup on that side of the field. We can see that area in bright green in the chances conceded heat map.

If Jack is able to light up the area in green, then the high xG shots will be available for Ollie.

If Grealish plays for AVL, this could be a trap game for TOT they have capitalized on easier fixtures. Even w/o Grealish, AVL has a xG∆ of -3.4 so they are severely underperforming their stats. Some positive regression may be in store if Watkins can find some form, ever.

The only Spurs defender I would consider is Reguilon for his attacking threat against a Villa side that has given up 22 chances from their right side in the last 6 (without Cash).

FUL – eve, bur, shu, cry, tot, liv
vs
LEE – eve, cry, ars, wol, sou, avl
Fulham has a xGC∆ of -2.8 so their defense has been somewhat lucky of late, but they have also been very good. They have the 2nd lowest xGC (4.8), 2nd only to CHE, in the last 6,

and they are the last team in this list that is 2nd for BCC with only 7.
The stats comparisons, however, indicate that the specific matchups are not that favorable for FUL.

All the orange in the chances conceded heat map for FUL is on their left side.

This is Raphinha’s primary side and one from where LEE created 14 chances in the past 6. Looking at FUL opponents, they have not faced a formidable challenge on this side in the last 6 matches other than an out of form Salah.

Raphinha will be a whole different animal attacking the weakest part of this defense.
To add, FUL have also conceded the most BC of the teams in this group in the last 6 (10), and nobody has created more BC than Raphinha in the last 6 (6).

Raphinha will be licking his chops at the combination of these stats in this matchup.

I don’t have faith in a FUL defender, but if I had to choose one, it would be Adarabioyo or Andersen.

I will most likely only be fielding 2 or 3 defenders this GW

as I feel a couple of strategic selections could cover the points nicely. Just a little quality and a little luck to get by this lackluster BGW.

The Little Prince Pick of the Week
The Little Prince Pick of the Week is about someone overlooked or forgotten

that I pick with my heart more than my mind. The FPL asset requiring a different lens to be seen.
“The most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or touched, they are felt with the heart.”
Kai Havertz played like he did for the final months of last season with Leverkusen.

Full of clarity and conviction. This player has a gliding ability that is difficult to describe. He glides through lines of pressure. Something has clicked in the young German’s brain, and I’m excited to see how he can exploit space left by Bielsa’s boys.

Thank you once again for spending time with my thoughts. It is a privilege to be able to write these for you all, and I appreciate your support and engagement so please do share with your friends if you find it valuable.

You can also find, and so many other resources out at allaboutfpl.com and follow @allaboutfpl.
Looking forward to discussing this all w/ @FplMariner on #NetThatHaul.

Next week’s article will be Part 2: GW29 Attackers. Thanks everyone and all the best of luck in #GW28.