1. Got a couple of exciting things in the pipeline for @The__Cycle
1 will be the results of the survey on extremism
The other will be an int w @amieparnes & her co-author @jonallendc about their book on the 2020 election, which I think will be quite distinct from other ints
2. Parnes & Allen get to do bc they cover the biographical accounts of these months-long Super Bowl, Titanic-sized events & have the access to personalize & bring us behind the scenes to so many famous moments from the cycle. This is an invaluable perspective BUT a wholly diff 1
3. than the perspective of an academic "analysis" of a cycle & voter behavior. For ex. reading their 2016 book and then mine would give you two VERY different readings on the "what happened/why" end, BUT together, a much deeper understanding. You could read them back to back &
4. very little content would be the same, bc of the research/writing approaches used. It's bc of that (also, long time fan, so excited to talk w them!) that I am super jazzed to see what happens when we fuse these two distinct approaches together to discuss 2020 & their book
5. Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won the Presidency which you should order and read NOW in prep for the pod! amazon.com/Lucky-How-Bide…
6. If you've never read my academic book on 2016, which offers a unique diagnosis as to why Clinton lost (well not so unique now that the theory grew into The Theory & went on to predict the contours of two cycles months ahead of them) its available on amazon.com/Unprecedented-…
7. Amazon, and I apologize for the crazy $. I don't make royalties on it! If you have $ issues, DM me. But reading the 2016 will give you a great background for seeing how academics look at these things, versus how journalists look at them.
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1. Gotta love this old video sent to me by @EthanMenaker on the verge of the 2006 midterms- which is the 1st of the negative polarized era (though had it not been for the 9/11 attacks, I believe due to the way that Bush Jr. came to the presidency that
2. the 2002 midterm would have been the very 1st of them. Although it is important to note that mass polarization (polarization among regular people) was just beginning to register, while elite polarization, after being hypercharged by Gingrich's efforts and the evolution of
3. partisan media was just really firing up. The 2006 cycle was also the last cycle in which @KarlRove took part, actively in electioneering after pioneering the strategy that is now staple in every single Republican campaign- described in this video as
1. The diagnostic from @jonallendc & @amieparnes (& I'll be careful here, I'm only just now hearing an int w them- haven't read book yet) is "Lucky" which is 100% correct in terms of the primary. But in terms of the fall general- as they talking about- what helped @JoeBiden win
2. was discipline- which is the exact opposite of what he was supposed to be capable of. BC everything is so off the guardrails w the GOP trying to overturn a legit election & end democracy, we've not had many of the normal convos we usually have, the usual post-ops. But Biden
3. was unshakable and turned in a performance of a lifetime. Taking Parnes & Allen's reporting at face value, that Obama was worried Biden would lose & hurt his legacy (which to me sounds off, I am sure Obama has been worried about bigger things, as many of us have been) Biden
@AlanIAbramowitz & @stevenwwebster 1st applied this concept to American political behavior in their polarization research after Alan spent a decade needlessly proving that the mass public was, indeed, polarizing & not just "sorting." I used
2. it to argue that our sorted, polarized, and hyperpartisan electorate, where party-preference, including the lean of most Indies, predicts vote choice mths out from election day. Therefore, our elections have become highly predictable- look for demographics for each party's
3. emerging coalition, know where they will win & lose. Fir Ds this meant places w concentrations of college edu voters (IE the suburbs) were about to explode in favor of Ds, some from preference changes but also from turnout change among Ds & Indies who had been latent in the
1. BTW- this phenomena that @davidshor finds in his work, about non-white conservative voter "slippage"- the slippage is all from these voters being targeted for the first time w messaging (persuasion messaging from the Death Star). Effective lies.
No one would believe this
2. could pay dividends, bc "digital ads don't do anything." But when you have Black & Latino voters who have never been targeted bc they are reliable voters & all the sudden they are getting these "law & order" ads from the Trump campaign...
Proof is in your own data. If Trump
3. campaign had used abortion as their big issue (& they may well have if the Dem socialists weren't dumb enough to come up w something as god awful as "defund the police" then your non-white conservatives who went Clinton-Trump would be pinging off of THAT issue. Its not an
1. Correct Dan. I will spend the next 10 months, as Ds considers nominees for races in places like PA, reminding folks that when change finally came to the Deep South it came in the form of REALIGNMENT. W the D's NEW COALITION. Which includes the PERMANENT REALIGNMENT of college
2. whites, bc the "preference change" wasn't a preference change entirely. A LARGE COMPONENT of it was a participation change. It was millennial & Zoomer college edu voters doing the oppo of what the COOL Boomers did in the 60s. Cool Boomers- the ones that aged and vote D & hated
3. Bush & still smoke pot & created quality over quantity industries in wine, beer, cheese, pot, basically everything that doesn't suck about this country other than @CFTalk- THAT may well be the ONLY think Republicans ever did for the country that actually was value added) so
1. Couldn't have said it better myself. When I 1st emerged I was teaching at a little liberal arts college. Regardless, @neeratanden immediately treated me w respect even though she didn't really jive on my thesis (esp. strawman version some people use for it)
2. to meet someone you really like, or really jive w. Its harder when its someone, esp a woman, fighting hard to find a spot in a competitive frankly brutal environ. She had every opp to shun me & instead, she treated me as an equal- as someone who deserved a seat at the table.
3. I will always be grateful for that & when I found out that Manchin was going to abuse his power to rob her of this opp, I got pissed. Bc I know that if her name was Bob, if she was some white dude w half the qualifications, she'd be leading the OMB. All I can say is @JoeBiden