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Rachel
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12 Mar, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Wow. My phone literally just saved my life by slowing me from entering the intersection to make my left & getting T- boned by a lady that blew the light going 40mph
She would have hit my body dead on
The only reason she didn't is bc I waited to turn on Sirius
So rare that someone would blow a light that is full red and all the other cars are stopped. This is actually the 2nd time. In the past couple of yrs a weird fluke kept me, who is a gunner, from being T-boned in that way. Those are bad accidents

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More from @RachelBitecofer

Rachel
12 Mar
1. Which brings me to @BBCWorld yesterday, radio, when they report on the Chinese gov's stripping of actual political power from Hong Kong's legislature, which the coverage notes erodes (kills) democracy there. But then closes the report w: the Chinese govn't defends the move
2. saying it will bring stability to the region.

That's it. No context. Just the Chinese propaganda line about needing to kill Hong Kong's democracy bc its more stable. BBC World reported that way to maintain a "standard of impartiality" in the "hard news" report. And it got me
3. thinking, will they be reporting about the death of OUR democracy, actually scratch that- reverse it, ARE they reporting on the death of our democracy the same way? "The Republicans argue the changes are needed to ensure election integrity."

Every time we hear a news report
Read 5 tweets
Rachel
11 Mar
1. Got a couple of exciting things in the pipeline for @The__Cycle

1 will be the results of the survey on extremism

The other will be an int w @amieparnes & her co-author @jonallendc about their book on the 2020 election, which I think will be quite distinct from other ints
2. Parnes & Allen get to do bc they cover the biographical accounts of these months-long Super Bowl, Titanic-sized events & have the access to personalize & bring us behind the scenes to so many famous moments from the cycle. This is an invaluable perspective BUT a wholly diff 1
3. than the perspective of an academic "analysis" of a cycle & voter behavior. For ex. reading their 2016 book and then mine would give you two VERY different readings on the "what happened/why" end, BUT together, a much deeper understanding. You could read them back to back &
Read 7 tweets
Rachel
7 Mar
1. Gotta love this old video sent to me by @EthanMenaker on the verge of the 2006 midterms- which is the 1st of the negative polarized era (though had it not been for the 9/11 attacks, I believe due to the way that Bush Jr. came to the presidency that

2. the 2002 midterm would have been the very 1st of them. Although it is important to note that mass polarization (polarization among regular people) was just beginning to register, while elite polarization, after being hypercharged by Gingrich's efforts and the evolution of
3. partisan media was just really firing up. The 2006 cycle was also the last cycle in which @KarlRove took part, actively in electioneering after pioneering the strategy that is now staple in every single Republican campaign- described in this video as
Read 9 tweets
Rachel
5 Mar
1. The diagnostic from @jonallendc & @amieparnes (& I'll be careful here, I'm only just now hearing an int w them- haven't read book yet) is "Lucky" which is 100% correct in terms of the primary. But in terms of the fall general- as they talking about- what helped @JoeBiden win
2. was discipline- which is the exact opposite of what he was supposed to be capable of. BC everything is so off the guardrails w the GOP trying to overturn a legit election & end democracy, we've not had many of the normal convos we usually have, the usual post-ops. But Biden
3. was unshakable and turned in a performance of a lifetime. Taking Parnes & Allen's reporting at face value, that Obama was worried Biden would lose & hurt his legacy (which to me sounds off, I am sure Obama has been worried about bigger things, as many of us have been) Biden
Read 8 tweets
Rachel
5 Mar
1. Negative Partisanship Rules All.

@AlanIAbramowitz & @stevenwwebster 1st applied this concept to American political behavior in their polarization research after Alan spent a decade needlessly proving that the mass public was, indeed, polarizing & not just "sorting." I used
2. it to argue that our sorted, polarized, and hyperpartisan electorate, where party-preference, including the lean of most Indies, predicts vote choice mths out from election day. Therefore, our elections have become highly predictable- look for demographics for each party's
3. emerging coalition, know where they will win & lose. Fir Ds this meant places w concentrations of college edu voters (IE the suburbs) were about to explode in favor of Ds, some from preference changes but also from turnout change among Ds & Indies who had been latent in the
Read 10 tweets
Rachel
4 Mar
1. BTW- this phenomena that @davidshor finds in his work, about non-white conservative voter "slippage"- the slippage is all from these voters being targeted for the first time w messaging (persuasion messaging from the Death Star). Effective lies.

No one would believe this
2. could pay dividends, bc "digital ads don't do anything." But when you have Black & Latino voters who have never been targeted bc they are reliable voters & all the sudden they are getting these "law & order" ads from the Trump campaign...

Proof is in your own data. If Trump
3. campaign had used abortion as their big issue (& they may well have if the Dem socialists weren't dumb enough to come up w something as god awful as "defund the police" then your non-white conservatives who went Clinton-Trump would be pinging off of THAT issue. Its not an
Read 14 tweets

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